Origin Energy Limited · ASX:ORG
Origin Energy — Macquarie Australia Conference 2012
17 slides from Origin Energy's conference presentation, May 2, 2012
Slide 1: Origin Energy – Flexibility to Respond
Origin Energy Macquarie Australia Conference, 2 - 4 May 2012 Grant King, Managing Director “Flexibility to Respond”
Slide 2: Important Notice
Important Notice This presentation does not constitute investment advice, or an inducement or recommendation to acquire or dispose of any securities in Origin, in any jurisdiction (including the USA). This presentation is for information purposes only, is in a summary form, and does not purport to b
Slide 3: An investment in Origin provides a stake in a company with a proven track record
An investment in Origin today provides a stake in a company with a proven track record of delivering value … The largest fuel integrated generation retail business in Australia and New Zealand • Large and diversified portfolio of physical and contracted fuel supply • Largest and most diversified gen
Slide 4: Origin has added value by successfully investing capital
Origin has added value by successfully investing capital that has delivered commensurate growth in cash flows and earnings Productive Capital Free Cash Flow 14,000 1,400 CAGR 18%1 CAGR 26%1 12,000 1,200 10,000 1,000 $ million $ million 8,000 800 6,000 600 4,000 400 2,000 200 0 0 2001 2002 2003 2004
Slide 5: Origin will continue to invest and expects to double productive capital
Origin will continue to invest in growing its business and expects to double productive capital over the next five years … APLNG Train 2 APLNG Train 1 Potential gas sales to other LNG projects Start of APLNG gas sales to QCLNG Te Mihi geothermal project Cash flow Legacy fuel uplift Full benefit from
Slide 6: Origin continues to build value through strong and predictable cash flows
Origin continues to build value through a business with strong and predictable cash flows and earnings … Strong and predictable earnings from the existing business • Extensive fuel position in physical and contracted resources • Large, flexible and diverse generation portfolio • Leading energy retai
Slide 7: Recent events with a material impact on the business
In the last few months, there have been a number of events that will have a material impact on the business in the short, medium and longer term Strong and predictable earnings from the existing business • Comfortable with current analyst consensus for FY2012 earnings Growth in the medium term from
Slide 8: Recent draft electricity tariff determinations capture key structural components of energy pricing
Recent draft electricity tariff determinations capture the key structural components of energy pricing … • NSW and Queensland draft tariff determinations Average annual NEM pool prices adequately allow for the pass through of network and Origin’s energy procurement costs mitigate carbon costs and re
Slide 9: APLNG is on schedule and budget to deliver first gas in 2015
APLNG is on schedule and budget to deliver first gas in 2015 … • FID 1 in July 2011; FID 2 expected by mid-2012 • Marketing agreements in place to underpin two trains – Sinopec (7.6 mtpa)1 – Kansai (1.0 mtpa)2 • Sinopec to increase equity holding in APLNG to 25%3 January 2012 • Contracts secured for
Slide 10: Legacy fuel contracts will drive earnings growth as wholesale energy prices rise
Legacy fuel contracts set at previously low domestic prices will drive growth in earnings as wholesale energy prices rise Australian Domestic Gas Prices PJ/a Origin Sources and Uses of Fuel 12.00 Australian domestic gas 300 10.00 prices expected to increase 8.00 towards export parity $/GJ Third Part
Slide 11: The announced gas sale with GLNG is linked to international oil pricing
The announced gas sale with GLNG is linked to international oil pricing … • Heads of Agreement for gas supply signed on 1 May 2012 • Monetises Origin’s domestic fuel portfolio at international oil-linked pricing • 365 PJ, or 100 TJ per day, over 10 years at Wallumbilla, commencing in 2015 • Gas will
Slide 12: Origin signed its largest ever wind power purchase agreement
Origin signed its largest ever wind power purchase agreement … • Power purchase agreement for renewable energy from TrustPower’s planned Snowtown II Wind Farm signed on 1 May 2012 • Offtake for 100% output and Renewable Energy Certificates from Snowtown II, expected to commence operations in 2014 •
Slide 13: Australian energy demand forecasts for 2020 have declined significantly
Australian energy demand forecasts for 2020 have declined significantly over recent years … AEMO – NEM Energy Demand Forecasts (1) CHART TO BE MODIFIED 5% reduction in AEMO 2011/12 forecast Forecasts as at March 2012 … creating pressure on recovery of fixed and regulated costs and highlighting the d
Slide 14: Australia's Renewable Energy Target is not adjusted to reflect actual demand
Australia’s Renewable Energy Target is not adjusted to reflect actual demand for energy, resulting in higher costs for consumers Energy from Renewables in 20202 TWh • In 2009 the Australian Government set a 70 An actual 20% Renewable Energy Target (RET) for 20% of renewable target Australia’s electr
Slide 15: Rationalisation of carbon reduction policy would help mitigate cost pressures
Rationalisation of carbon reduction policy in Australia would help mitigate cost pressures for households and businesses • Unaligned and multifaceted carbon reduction policy results in: – Sub-optimal long term investment decisions – Increased costs for consumers • Policy consolidation is now possibl
Slide 16: Origin has announced several future energy opportunities
Origin has recently announced several future energy opportunities across its expanding and diversified portfolio GAS GEOTHERMAL HYDRO WIND SOLAR • Domestic and • Habanero-4 • Evaluation of a • Progressing 300- • Currently international gas geothermal hydro-electric 500 MW Stockyard exploring a range
Slide 17: Thank you
Thank you Further Information Kylie Springall Group Manager, Investor Relations Email: [email protected] Office: +61 2 8345 5288 Mobile: + 61 400 477 393 Website www.originenergy.com.au 17 |