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Peel Hunt — Investor Presentation (October 2024)
12 slides from Peel Hunt's investor presentation, Oct 1, 2024
Slide 1: Broadening expansion
Broadening expansion If the tail risks are avoided, a synchronised policy easing can support global trade and production 1 OCTOBER 2024 Kallum Pickering Chief Economist +44 20 3597 8574 +44 7931 353730 [email protected]
Slide 2: Riding out the risks
Peel Hunt economic projections as of 30 September 2024 Kallum Pickering Riding out the risks Chief Economist +44 20 3597 8574 [email protected] Broadening expansion for major economies despite structural challenges and heightened risks Outlook – cyclical upswing in Europe and Japan . . .
Slide 3: Summary of economic and financial projections
Peel Hunt economic projections as of 30 September 2024 Kallum Pickering Summary of economic and financial projections Chief Economist +44 20 3597 8574 [email protected] Peel Hunt economic projections Key economic forecast changes GDP Inflation Unemployment Industrial production 2023 2024
Slide 4: UK: Back to more normal times
Peel Hunt economic projections as of 30 September 2024 Kallum Pickering UK: Back to more normal times Chief Economist +44 20 3597 8574 [email protected] Political stability and fading headwinds underpin cyclical upswing 2023 2024 2025 2026 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24 4Q24 1Q25 2Q25 3Q25 4Q25 UK: Bloo
Slide 5: US: The presidential factor
Peel Hunt economic projections as of 30 September 2024 Kallum Pickering US: The presidential factor Chief Economist +44 20 3597 8574 [email protected] Slowing momentum first, cyclical recovery afterwards – but downside risks have grown 2023 2024 2025 2026 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24 4Q24 1Q25 2Q25 3Q
Slide 6: Eurozone: Bouncing back from the trade shock
Peel Hunt economic projections as of 30 September 2024 Kallum Pickering Eurozone: Bouncing back from the trade shock Chief Economist +44 20 3597 8574 [email protected] Fading external headwinds and ECB easing lift activity 2023 2024 2025 2026 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24 4Q24 1Q25 2Q25 3Q25 4Q25 1Q26E
Slide 7: Germany: Struggling for recovery momentum
Peel Hunt economic projections as of 30 September 2024 Kallum Pickering Germany: Struggling for recovery momentum Chief Economist +44 20 3597 8574 [email protected] A myriad of crosswinds hold back domestic activity and export-oriented production 2023 2024 2025 2026 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24 4Q24 1
Slide 8: France: Uncertain upswing amid political uncertainty
Peel Hunt economic projections as of 30 September 2024 Kallum Pickering France: Uncertain upswing amid political uncertainty Chief Economist +44 20 3597 8574 [email protected] Domestic political shifts could undermine the benefits of past structural reforms 2023 2024 2025 2026 1Q24 2Q24
Slide 9: China: Spluttering expansion, serious structural challenges
Peel Hunt economic projections as of 30 September 2024 Kallum Pickering China: Spluttering expansion, serious structural challenges Chief Economist +44 20 3597 8574 [email protected] Structural slowdown in growth potential as long-term challenges mount 2023 2024 2025 2026 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24
Slide 10: Japan: Cyclical uptick and sustained inflation
Peel Hunt economic projections as of 30 September 2024 Kallum Pickering Japan: Cyclical uptick and sustained inflation Chief Economist +44 20 3597 8574 [email protected] With the return of inflation, the BoJ is tiptoeing towards policy normalisation 2023 2024 2025 2026 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24 4Q2
Slide 11: Consensus forecasts
Peel Hunt economic projections as of 30 September 2024 Kallum Pickering Consensus forecasts Chief Economist +44 20 3597 8574 [email protected] Bloomberg consensus data taken on 30 September 2024 at 07:45 BST Bloomberg consensus GDP Inflation Unemployment Industrial production 2024 2025 2
Slide 12: Disclaimer/Risk Warning
Disclaimer/Risk Warning This document has been prepared by Peel Hunt LLP (“Peel Hunt”) and is for the use of the addressee only. It may not be copied or distributed to any other person without the written consent of Peel Hunt. This document has been prepared using sources believed to be reliable and