Thai Oil Public Co. Ltd. · SET:TOP
Thai Oil Public — Investor Presentation (March 2019)
83 slides from Thai Oil Public's investor presentation, March 2019
Slide 1: Thai Oil Public Company Limited Presentation to Investors
-1- Thai Oil Public Company Limited Presentation to Investors March 2019
Slide 2: Disclaimer
-2- Disclaimer The information contained in this presentation is intended solely for your personal reference. Please do not circulate this material. If you are not an intended recipient, you must not read, disclose, copy, retain, distribute or take any action in reliance upon it. Some statements mad
Slide 3: Corporate Vision, Mission and Values
-3- Corporate Vision, Mission and Values Empower Human Life VISION through Sustainable Energy and Chemicals • To enrich stakeholders’ well-being and deliver sustainable returns MISSION built upon innovation, technology and resilient portfolio with top class management and accountable corporate gover
Slide 4: Corporate Governance
-4- Corporate Governance Corporate Governance Policy Roles and Responsibilities The board of directors, management and all staff shall commit to moral principles, equitable treatment to all for Stakeholders stakeholders and perform their duties for the company’s interest with dedication, integrity,
Slide 5: Our Achievement in Sustainable Development
-5- Our Achievement in Sustainable Development 6th Consecutive Year as the Member of DJSI Emerging Markets 5th Consecutive Year of leading positions: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Slide 6: Presentation Agenda
-6- Presentation Agenda TOP GROUP BUSINESS OVERVIEW KEY FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS STRATEGIC INVESTMENT PLANS MARKET OUTLOOK APPENDIX
Slide 7: TOP Group Business Overview
-7- TOP GROUP BUSINESS OVERVIEW
Slide 8: Strategic Relationship and Operational Integration with PTT
-8- Strategic Relationship and Operational Integration with PTT Thai Oil’s strong shareholder base 15.6% • Benefits from PTT’s dual role as our major shareholder and key 16.2% 48.0% business partner • All transactions take place at arm’s length and in adherence with 20.2% strong corporate PTT 48.0%
Slide 9: TOP Group Synergy & Strategic Role in PTT Group Value Chain
-9- TOP Group Synergy & Strategic Role in PTT Group Value Chain Upstream Intermediate Downstream Solvent Pentane Diversifying to a broad Hexane range of downstream Toluene SOLVENTS The majority of Mixed-Xylene products to enjoy higher refined petroleum profit margins and Paraxylene products are sold
Slide 10: Key Milestones: 57 Years, A Long Track Record of Success
-10- Key Milestones: 57 Years, A Long Track Record of Success 1961 – 1997 2004 – 2011 Today Capacity expansion and initial stage of Listing, expansion and A leading integrated refining and business diversification diversification petrochemical group in Asia Pacific 1961 1970 2004 • 275 kbd refinery
Slide 11: Thai Oil Group Business Structure
-11- Thai Oil Group Business Structure 100.0% 100.0% 74.0% PTT 26.0% 100.0% 100.0% Thai Paraxylene Thai Lube Base Thaioil Power Thaioil Marine Thaioil Ethanol Thaioil (TOP) (TPX) (TLB) (TP) (TM) (TET) Aromatics Capacity: Lube Base Oil Sells Electricity/Steam to • 5 Oil & Chemical Tankers 50.0% Parax
Slide 12: Process Linkage: Beauty of Integration
-12- Process Linkage: Beauty of Integration PROCESS FLOWCHART Thai Paraxylene ADIP FUEL GAS Thai Oil ISOM LPG 20,000 MX HDT-1 MX 40,000 HDT-2 HDT-3 CCR-1 ULG95 85,000 CCR-2 CDU-1 50,000 CCR ULG91 45,000 KMT-1 CDU-2 KMT-2 JET 50,000 CDU-3 180,000 KEROSENE HVU-1 HVU-2 FCCU HDS-2 HVU-3 HVU-3 10,400 95,
Slide 13: One of Region's Leading Refineries
-13- One of Region’s Leading Refineries Total Thailand crude refining capacity 1,235 kbd Market shares for refined petroleum product3 Thai Oil 22% Share Nameplate Capacity 30% 30% Fang (3 kbpd) market market shares shares Thai Oil (275 kbpd) PTT’s Principal Refiner 2018 2017 BCP (120 kbpd) Esso (177
Slide 14: Strategic Location with Competitive Advantages in Access to Key Markets
-14- Strategic Location with Competitive Advantages in Access to Key Markets Access to Indochina markets through deep Close proximity to the key domestic markets water ports and trucks Our strategic location provide us with LAOS 1. Close proximity with the VIETNAM key domestic markets Bangkok and In
Slide 15: Optimized & Flexible Operations…Superior Performance
Crude -15- Optimized & Flexible Operations…Superior Performance Crude Assays based on Sources of Product Domestic demand for Reference Price TOP configuration* Crude output petroleum products** Thai Oil is able to diversify its type of crude intake and product outputs to maximize demand and margin %
Slide 16: Refinery: Maintain High Utilization Rate
Refining -16- Refinery: Maintain High Utilization Rate TOP/ Domestic Refinery Utilization Rate Domestic Oil Demand Unit: % Utilization Rate KBD 2017 2018 2.6% 114% 115% 115% 800 111% 112% 112%113% 108% 112%113% 110% 600 1.5% 98% 98% 97% 400 97% 98% 3.3% 90% 94% 94% 97% 5.4% 89% 90% 200 70% 0 ** Q1/1
Slide 17: Competitive Performance Benchmarking
-17- Competitive Performance Benchmarking Solomon for GOC 3(1) Category 2016 : TOP 2014 : TOP Solomon Associates is the independent 3rd party who applies Comparative Performance Analysis methodology to industry peers in (2) the area of reliability, equipment, utilization, operating expense, gross ma
Slide 18: TOP Group Key Highlights
-18- TOP Group Key Highlights Thailand’s largest and Diversified earnings 2 one of the region’s through integration 1 most advanced and with, and significant competitive refineries contribution from, our subsidiaries Strategic relationship Strategic location with Industry with high 3 4 5 and operati
Slide 19: Key Financial Highlights
-19- KEY FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS
Slide 20: 2018 Key Market Drivers Highlights
Key Highlights -20- 2018 Key Market Drivers Highlights Refinery Soften refinery margins pressured by higher crude premium due to Implication supply tightness followings OPEC’s cut and weak gasoline spread due to Mkt GRM at 4.7 $/bbl 1) high inventory worldwide. But negative impact was partially of
Slide 21: 2018 Key Achievements
Key Highlights -21- 2018 Key Achievements Key Achievements 2018 TOP Group Net Profit Operational Unit : million THB (MB) Maintain high reliable production Net Operating Profit F/X gain/(loss) Excellence 2018 2017 Reversal of NRV/(NRV) & Adjusted to cost Others i.e. Hedging gain/(loss) & Refinery 1
Slide 22: 2018 Margin and Productivity Improvement
Key Highlights -22- 2018 Margin and Productivity Improvement (VS Corporate Plan) Cost Management 523 MB 610 MB General & Admin , Procurement & warehouse , Operation & Maintenance , Project & Manpower Margin Improvement management Unit: million THB (Hydrocarbon Management : HMR) and Productivity Impr
Slide 23: Integrated Margin & Competitive Cash Cost
Financial -23- Integrated Margin & Competitive Cash Cost Gross Refining Margin Refinery’s Cash Cost (Unit: US$/bbl) (Unit: US$/bbl) Market GRM Accounting GRM (Market GRM + Stock G/L) Operating Cost Interest Expense (net) (excl. one-time non- operating item) Higher refinery cash cost in Higher refine
Slide 24: Financial Performance
Financial -24- Financial Performance Sales Revenue EBITDA Unit: Million THB Unit: Million THB EBITDA (excl stk G/L & NRV) EBITDA (incl stk G/L & NRV) 447,432 36,925 414,575 33,448 390,090 389,344 32,675 31,099 337,388 22,808 25,492 25,496 293,569 274,739 22,337 22,867 20,350 19,713 19,541 20,239 2,6
Slide 25: 2018 TOP Group Strong Financial Position & Financial Ratios
Financial -25- 2018 TOP Group Strong Financial Position & Financial Ratios Statements of Financial Position Consolidated Long-Term Debt as at 31 Dec 18 (Unit: million THB) Total IBD Net Cash 228,108 241,473 268,613 107,059 million THB 202 million THB Cash & ST 37,473 Trade Payable (US$ 3,283 million
Slide 26: 2018 Dividend Payment
Financial -26- 2018 Dividend Payment Dividend Policy : Not less than 25% of consolidated net profit after deducting reserves, subject to cash flow and investment plan Unit : THB/Share EPSR 2H dividend 1H dividend Year Dividend 12.18 10.40 9.19 9.40 8.66 7.82 7.28 5.91 6.04 5.97 4.57 4.97 4.39 3.75 2
Slide 27: Strategic Investment Plans
-27- STRATEGIC INVESTMENT PLANS
Slide 28: Thaioil Strategic Direction 2018 – 2030
-Use only for KM Session- -28- Thaioil Strategic Direction 2018 – 2030 Vision Empower Human Life through Sustainable Energy and Chemicals Measurement Growth | Diversity | Returns | Sustainability | Stakeholder To enrich stakeholders’ well-being and deliver sustainable returns built upon innovation,
Slide 29: Strategic Investment Plan Approved by Board of Directors
-29- Strategic Investment Plan Approved by Board of Directors CAPEX Plan (Unit US$ million) Planned capital investment Project 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Reliability, Efficiency and Flexibility Improvement 37 60 17 2 Infrastructure Improvement - Lorry Expansion 1 - Jetty 7&8 / Improvement 29 83 5 - Of
Slide 30: Clean Fuel Project (CFP): Rationale & Timeline
CFP -Use only for KM Session- -30- Clean Fuel Project (CFP) : Rationale & Timeline Project Rationale • Risk of losing competitiveness to others regional refineries as more new refineries with higher capacity and more advanced technologies are on stream. • Adjust product portfolio by producing high d
Slide 31: Scope of CFP & Technical Aspect
CFP -31- Scope of CFP & Technical Aspect LPG Tops ISOM SRU Sulfur 5 Naphtha HDT-3 CCR-1/2 Platformate PX/BZ TPX HDT-4 Hy. Naph CDU-3 4 180 kbd Crude LPG LPG Kerosene Tops KMT-1/2 Lt.Naph 400 kbd Isomerate Gasoline New HDS-2/3 CDU-4 Diesel Jet/Kero 220 kbd HDS-4 Diesel 4 HMU-1/2&PSA- 2 1/3 Fuel Oil H
Slide 32: CFP Competitiveness
CFP -32- CFP Competitiveness Without CFP With CFP CDU Capacity CDU Capacity 275,000 bbl per day 400,000 bbl per day Upgrading Ratio 28 % Upgrading Ratio 50% (upgrading capacity(1) over CDU capacity) (upgrading capacity(2) over CDU capacity) Power Plant 250 MW Remark : (1) including HCU 1/2, FCCU, TC
Slide 33: CFP Value Proposition
CFP -33- CFP Value Proposition Flexibility of crude intake Product Upgrading Light Distillate 25% (LPG, Light naphtha, Heavy naphtha, Light Crude Gasoline) 40% - 50% (API > 31) 23% 5% - 15% Medium Crude Middle Distillate (25 < API < 31) 62% (Jet , Gasoil) 100% 53% 40% - 50% Heavy Crude (API < 25) 17
Slide 34: 1H-19 Market Outlook
1H-19 MARKET OUTLOOK • Crude Oil • Petroleum Products • Aromatics • Base Oil & Bitumen • Linear Alkyl Benzene (LAB)
Slide 35: Crude Oil
CRUDE OIL
Slide 36: Global Economic Outlook
-36- Economy Global Economic Outlook Stable GDP growth at 3.5-3.7% in 2018-19 led by improved emerging and developing market, but downside risks such as trade barriers pressure growth China Vietnam India 2018 2019 2020-23 Growth (%YoY) Thailand Indonesia US EU World Jan-19(1) Jan-19(1) Oct-18(1) 12%
Slide 37: Global Oil Demand Growth Projection
-37- Crude Oil Global Oil Demand Growth Projection IEA forecasts global oil demand to grow by 1.4 MBD in 2019 North America Europe FSU 160 Unit: KBD 330 510 100 2017 280 110 2018 180 10 20 2019 Middle East 120 Asia Latin America 10 930 730 770 20 -120 Africa -50 -50 20 20 10 Demand Growth IEA (MBD)
Slide 38: Non-OPEC Supply Growth Projection
-38- Crude Oil Non-OPEC Supply Growth Projection IEA estimated Non-OPEC supply growth to grow by 1.6 MBD in 2019 North America Europe FSU 2350 Unit: KBD -10 260 -50 2017 1160 -110 120 2018 870 70 2019 Middle East 10 0 Latin America Asia 370 -20 60 Africa -80 -150 -40 40 -260 0 0 Non OPEC Growth Rema
Slide 39: Recovering Oil Price on Tighter than Expected Supply
Crude Oil -39- Recovering Oil Price on Tighter than Expected Supply Dubai Price Movement $/BBL OPEC-led Cut U.S. Re-imposed Falling Risk Assets as FED raised rates 100 Deal Extended Sanctions on Iran until the Dec-18 Concern Over OPEC-led Cut Supply Loss in Iran U.S.-China Trade 80 Deal Started 1st
Slide 40: Tightening Supply on OPEC Production Cut Deal and Tumbling Supplies
Crude Oil -40- 1 Tightening Supply on OPEC Production Cut Deal and Tumbling Supplies in Iran and Venezuela A OPEC Production to Continue Declining B Limited Iranian Outflow on Sanction Uncertainty MBD OPEC-11 Production Iranian Crude Oil Production 28 *OPEC’s January 2019 output according to Reuter’
Slide 41: Deficit Market in 1H-19 on Limited Supplies and Strong Demand
Crude Oil -41- 2 Deficit Market in 1H-19 on Limited Supplies and Strong Demand A Supply Growth Dragged Down by Output Cut C C Tighter Global Crude Oil Market in 2019 1H-19 World Oil Supply Growth (YoY) MBD Global Demand/Supply Balance MBD MBD *Canada announced to cut 2019 production by 0.3MBD **Non-
Slide 42: Petroleum Products
PETROLEUM PRODUCTS
Slide 43: Slightly Softer Refining Margins from Weak Gasoline Market
Refinery -43- Slightly Softer Refining Margins from Weak Gasoline Market and Still Supported by Recovering Middle Distillate Cracks Q-o-Q Singapore Cracking GRM ($/BBL) 7.7 8.2 6.7 7.2 7.1 7 6.1 6.4 6.4 6.1 6.1 5.9 5.0 5.2 4.2 2.7 Q1-16 Q2-16 Q3-16 Q4-16 Y2016 Q1-17 Q2-17 Q3-17 Q4-17 Y2017 Q1-18 Q2-
Slide 44: Soft Gasoline Cracks Pressured by Abundant Supply
Refinery -44- 1 Soft Gasoline Cracks Pressured by Abundant Supply Until the Start of Maintenance Season and Summer Season A Above 5-year Average Stocks B Higher Malaysian Supply From New Refinery S/U MBBL Global Gasoline Inventory Malaysian Gasoline Supply KBD 300 150 300 KBD RAPID 280 Start-Up in M
Slide 45: Recovering Middle Distillate Cracks Q-o-Q from Firm Demand
Refinery -45- Recovering Middle Distillate Cracks Q-o-Q from Firm 2 Demand and Tighter Supply A Warmer-than-normal Winter Pressuring Demand B High Chinese Exports Amid Higher Export Quota Percent of El Nino Development Chinese Middle Distillate Export KBD 1000 AVG 1H-18 : 717 KBD 13% LE 1H-19 : 703
Slide 46: Demand Growth Outpacing Supply Addition
Refinery -46- 3 Demand Growth Outpacing Supply Addition Asia Pacific and Middle East Effective CDU Addition VS Additional Demand AP & ME Demand Growth Middle East China Other AP Japan India Vietnam Teapot Thailand Net Addition Operating Rate [RHS] KBD Operating Rate, % 3500 3150 100 95 2500 90 1386
Slide 47: Thailand Oil Demand Growth
Domestic Thailand Oil Demand Growth Thailand Oil Demand Growth (B) (B) Y2018(B) Y2019F Year on Year Y2016 Y2017 VS 2017 VS 2018 Steady demand growth due to Mogas (A) +9.8% +3.7% +3.3% lower oil price Slightly softer demand growth Jet/Kero +6.8% +4.4% +5.4% due to limited airport capacity Steady dema
Slide 48: Aromatics
AROMATICS
Slide 49: Firm PX Market on Growing Demand against Softer BZ Market
Aromatics -49- Firm PX Market on Growing Demand against Softer BZ Market on Still-High Stock and Surplus Supply Aromatics Market PX CFR Taiwan-ULG95 ($/TON) BZ FOB Korea-ULG95 ($/TON) 529 530 343 447 387 245 332315341 225 231 280 317 313 273258260276 304 268 185 195212 156138174 163 141 126127 81 0
Slide 50: Firm PX Market on Growing Demand Growth, but Pressured
Aromatics -50- Firm PX market on Growing Demand Growth, but Pressured 1 from Restart of Chinese Plant A Roll-Over Capacity to Pressure PX Market in 1H-19 B Tighten Supply in 1H from Peak Asian M/T in Mar-May AP/ME Effective PX Capacity Addition Asian PX Plant Turnaround in 2019 Mil TON Zhejiang 0.8M
Slide 51: AP/ME PX Balance
Aromatics -51- AP/ME PX Balance AP/ME PX Supply Demand Balance 2010-2018 (CAGR) 2019 (CAGR) 2019-2023 (CAGR) Mil TON Cap: 5.6% Cap: 9.6% Cap: 6.6% Operating Rate Dem: 6.4% Dem: 3.5% Dem: 3.6% 70 90% 60 60.6 62.1 50 58.8 80% 54.5 40 49.4 48.1 43.0 45.1 43.3 44.3 45.5 37.8 40.6 41.2 40.3 41.7 70% 30 3
Slide 52: Softer BZ Market due to High Stock in China
Aromatics -52- Softer BZ Market due to High Stock in China amid Stable 2 Capacity Addition A Stable Capacity Addition in 1H B Accumulated Stock to Weigh Down Chinese Import Vol. in 1H AP/ME Effective BZ Capacity Addition KTON BZ Stock in East China Mil TON 250 213 Fujian 1 Zhejiang 0.65MTA 2 TPPI 0.
Slide 53: AP/ME BZ Balance
Aromatics -53- AP/ME BZ Balance AP/ME BZ Supply Demand Balance 2010-2018 (CAGR) 2019 2019-2023 (CAGR) Cap: 3.2% Cap: 3.8% Cap: 4.5% Mil TON Dem: 3.9% Dem: 5.0% Dem: 4.3% Operating Rate 60 90% 50 48.8 49.9 80% 40 47.1 44.3 40.2 41.8 36.8 37.2 37.7 39.0 37.1 38.4 30 32.9 32.8 34.5 32.5 34.1 35.6 70% 3
Slide 54: Base Oil & Bitumen
BASE OIL & BITUMEN
Slide 55: Soft Base Oil Market on Higher Capacity Addition
Base Oil & Bitumen -55- Soft Base Oil Market on Higher Capacity Addition 500SN – HSFO ($/TON) 1 AP Base Oil Effective Capacity Addition 556528 512482 458498 Mil TON Group 3 Group 2 Group 1 Net Capacity 427409443 451 417376447 1.8 367412 332 2.0 1.2 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.0 -1.0 Y2016 Y2017 Y2018 Q3-1
Slide 56: Stable Bitumen Market on Firm Demand
Base Oil & Bitumen -56- Stable Bitumen Market on Firm Demand Bitumen-HSFO ($/TON) 1 Firm Asian Bitumen Demand on Continuous Projects -7 China has set up $40 billion Silk Road Fund (One -13 -19 -48 -61 -49 -38 -29 -45 -31 -41 -46 -45 Belt, One Road) to roll out the initiative -56 -67 -80 India increa
Slide 57: Linear Alkyl Benzene (LAB)
Linear Alkyl Benzene (LAB)
Slide 58: Stable-to-Firm LAB Demand in 1H-2019
LAB -58- Stable-to-Firm Demand in 1H-2019 due to Peak Seasonal Demand in Summer, but Pressured by Lower Maintenance LAB Market K TON India LAB Import Volume LAB Spread* ($/TON) 80 2018 70 60 2015 635 627 619 634 50 606 603 573 613 40 2016 543 539 534 522 550 529 566 563 30 2017 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 KTA AP/ME
Slide 59: Conclusion
CONCLUSION
Slide 60: 1H-2019 Market Outlook Conclusion
Conclusion -60- 1H-2019 Market Outlook Conclusion (vs. 2H-2018) Crude Oil Recovering Oil Price on Tighter than Expected Supply Slightly Softer Refining Margins from Weak Gasoline Refinery Market and Still Supported by Recovering Middle Distillate Cracks Q-o-Q Firm PX Market on Growing Demand against
Slide 61: Thank You
-61- Thank You Any queries, please contact: at email: [email protected] Tel: 662-797-2999 / 662-797-2961 Fax: 662-797-2976
Slide 62: Appendix
-62- APPENDIX • Q4/18 Performance analysis • CDU Addition VS Additional Demand – AP & ME • World GRM / Inventories • Thailand petroleum demand by products
Slide 63: Q4/18: Lower Mkt GRM pressured by Weak Gasoline Spread
Refining -63- Q4/18: Lower Mkt GRM pressured by Weak Gasoline Spread Refinery Utilization Dubai Crude Price & Key Petroleum Product Spreads Q3/18 Q4/18 2018 2017 2017 2018 2017 115% 115% 113% 112% $/bbl Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY18 FY17 % MB Intake/OSP* DUBAI (DB) 53.1 49.8 50.5 59.3 63.9 72.1 74.3
Slide 64: Q4/18: Robust Aromatics Contribution supported by Strong PX spread
Aromatics/LAB -64- Q4/18: Robust Aromatics Contribution supported by Strong PX spread Aromatics Spreads and Margins Aromatics Production 2017 2018 2017 Q3/18 Q4/18 2018 2017 $/ton Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY18 FY17 89% 94% 89% 83% PX**-ULG95 312 273 258 260 304 268 451 528 388 276 Q1TD’19 (6 Mar 19)
Slide 65: Q4/18: Stable Contribution as Soften Lube Base Spread
Lube Base Oil -65- Q4/18: Stable Contribution as Soften Lube Base Spread Base Oil & Bitumen Spreads & Margins Base oil Production 2017 2018 2017 Q3/18 Q4/18 2018 2017 $/ton Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY18 FY17 72% 86% 84% 88% % Base Oil & Specialty Sales Volume 500SN-HSFO 451 556 528 458 512 481 417 37
Slide 66: Beauty of Integration…Sustainable GIM
Performance Breakdown -66- Beauty of Integration…Sustainable GIM (Unit: US$/bbl) 20.2 Product to Feed 12.8 13.0 14.3 12.4 16.4 11.9 11.0 12.2 14.4 11.6 16.9 Q1/16 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/17 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/18 Q2 Q3 Q4 6.1 6.0 6.5 6.1 8.1 5.7 4.4 4.3 5.7 5.0 4.0 3.9 Crude Marketing GRM (excluded stock gain / loss) Q
Slide 67: Q4/18 Power Sector Performance
Power -67- Q4/18 Power Sector Performance…Growing Contribution to the Group Power Business Sector Equity holding in SPP GPSC **** 74% 100% ***TOP shareholding 24.29% (8.91% Power & Steam Sales via TOP and 20.79% via TP) GPSC is an associate company of TOP. 2,544 Equity method is applied to recognize
Slide 68: 2018: Performance Breakdown by Business Unit
Performance Breakdown -68- 2018: Performance Breakdown by Business Unit Utilization/Production (%) & Net Profit (million THB) Key Points • Refinery: record high run rate to capture strong demand in domestic and Indochina market • Aromatic/LAB: higher run rate to capture robust PX spread due to suppl
Slide 69: 2018 TOP Group Consolidated P&L
Financial -69- 2018 TOP Group Consolidated P&L (Unit : million THB) Q4/18 Q3/18 QoQ Q4/17 YoY FY/18 FY/17 YoY YoY analysis Sales Revenue 99,755 101,261 (1,506) 89,443 10,312 389,344 337,388 51,956 (A) (A) Increase overall product Hedging Gain / (Loss) (852) (140) (712) (63) (789) (821) (133) (688) p
Slide 70: 2018 TOP Group Consolidated Cash Flow
Financial -70- 2018 TOP Group Consolidated Cash Flow (Unit: Million THB) (Unit: Million THB) Investments Operating Cash Flow FY/18 FY/17 FY/18 FY/17 Investments (25,846) (30,092) Operating Cash Flow 18,313 34,417 Dividend income 772 740 Net income & non-cash adj. 23,978 38,568 + ST investments (21,5
Slide 71: Asia Pacific and Middle East Refinery Addition
Refinery -71- Asia Pacific and Middle East Refinery Addition Start-up Nameplate Country Company period) (KBD) AP & ME Demand Growth Middle East China Other AP Q1-18 Iran 120 Bandar Abbas - PGSOC/1 Japan India (Phase 2) Vietnam Teapot Vietnam 186 Nghi Son Net Addition KBD Q3-18 China 100 Petrochina H
Slide 72: Asian Margin Vs. US-EU margin
World GRM -72- Asian Margin Vs. US-EU margin SINGAPORE GRM EU - US Margins $/BBL $/BBL 14 40 12 10 30 8 6 4 20 2 0 10 -2 -4 0 -6 -8 -10 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18 May-18 Sep-18 Jan-19 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18 May-18 Sep-18 Jan-19 SING CRACK SING HYDRO BR
Slide 73: Global Crude Oil Inventories
Inventories -73- Global Crude Oil Inventories U.S. Crude Stocks (excl. SPR) Crude Oil, Cushing, Oklahoma MBBL MBBL Source : EIA Source : EIA 600 80 550 70 500 60 50 450 40 400 30 350 20 300 10 250 0 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 5yr-range 2019 2018 avg 14-18
Slide 74: Global Gasoline Inventories
Inventories -74- Global Gasoline Inventories U.S. Gasoline Stocks Singapore Gasoline Stocks MBBL MBBL Source : EIA Source : IE Singapore 280 20 260 240 10 220 200 180 0 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 5yr-range 2019 2018 avg 14-18 5yr-range 2019 2018 avg 14-18
Slide 75: Global Middle Distillate Inventories
Inventories -75- Global Middle Distillate Inventories U.S. Diesel Stocks Singapore Middle Distillate Stocks MBBL MBBL Source : EIA Source : IE Singapore 180 20 160 140 10 120 100 80 0 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 5yr-range 2019 2018 avg 14-18 5yr-range 2019
Slide 76: Global Fuel Oil Inventories
Inventories -76- Global Fuel Oil Inventories U.S. Residual Fuel Oil Stocks Singapore Residual Fuel Oil Stocks MBBL MBBL Source : EIA Source : IE Singapore 50 40 30 40 20 30 10 20 0 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 5yr-range 2019 2018 avg 14-18 5yr-range 2019 20
Slide 77: China's Refined Product Exports
China Export -77- China’s Refined Product Exports KBD China’s Gasoline Exports KBD China’s Gasoil Exports Source : China Custom Source : China Custom 500 600 400 500 400 300 300 200 200 100 100 0 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2015 2
Slide 78: Domestic LPG Demand
Thailand petroleum demand by products -78- Domestic LPG Demand Thailand LPG Demand LPG Demand Highlight KT/Day 2018 2015 2016 2017 • In 2018, LPG demand jumped by 5.3% YoY on 20 the back of 20.7% YoY higher demand from 18.1 18.4 18.3 18.1 18.0 petrochemical sector, as a result of higher 17.5 17.8 17
Slide 79: Domestic Gasoline/Gasohol Demand
Thailand petroleum demand by products -79- Domestic Gasoline/Gasohol Demand Thailand Gasoline/Gasohol Demand GASOLINE/Gasohol Demand Highlight MML/Day 2018 2015 2016 2017 • In 2018, Mogas demand rose moderately by 34 33.1 3.3% YoY to an average 31.1 ML/day. Although, 31.5 31.7 31.5 the retail price
Slide 80: Domestic Jet Demand
Thailand petroleum demand by products -80- Domestic Jet Demand Thailand JET Demand JET Demand Highlight MML/Day 2018 2015 2016 2017 • In 2018, Jet consumption increased 21.6 22 21.0 21.2 20.9 significantly by 5.4% YoY owing to strong 19.7 20.0 tourism industry which leads to 6.5% YoY higher 20 aircr
Slide 81: Domestic Gasoil and NGV Demand
Thailand petroleum demand by products -81- Domestic Gasoil and NGV Demand Thailand Gasoil Demand Diesel Demand Highlight MML/Day 2018 2015 2016 2017 • In 2018, Diesel demand rose moderately by 72 69.7 70.2 1.5% YoY as a result of the growth of Thai 70 68.6 economic, according to higher Manufacturing
Slide 82: Domestic Fuel Oil Demand
Thailand petroleum demand by products -82- Domestic Fuel Oil Demand Thailand Fuel Oil Demand Fuel Oil Demand Highlight MML/Day 2018 2015 2016 2017 • In 2018, Fuel Oil consumption rose by 4.5% YoY, 10 as a result of 20.8% YoY higher demand from transportation sector which takes approximately 8 66.1%
Slide 83: Thank You
-83- Thank You Any queries, please contact: at email: [email protected] Tel: 662-797-2999 / 662-797-2961 Fax: 662-797-2976
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