ORLEN Spolka Akcyjna · GPW:PKN
ORLEN Spolka Akcyjna — PKN Orlen — Q1 2017 Earnings Presentation
36 slides from ORLEN Spolka Akcyjna's earnings presentation, Apr 27, 2017
Slide 1: PKN ORLEN consolidated financial results 1Q17
PKN ORLEN consolidated financial results 1Q17 27 April 2017 #ORLEN1Q17@PKN_ORLEN
Slide 2: Agenda
Agenda Key highlights 1Q17 Macroeconomic environment Financial and operating results Liquidity and investments Market outlook for 2017 2
Slide 3: Key highlights 1Q17
Key highlights 1Q17 EBITDA LIFO: PLN 2,3 bn Positive impact of regulations limiting grey zone in Poland Value creation Higher crude oil throughput by 7% (y/y) and higher average production in Upstream by 8% (y/y) The World’s Most Ethical Company 2017 (4th time in row) Top Employer Polska 2017 (6th t
Slide 4: Agenda
Agenda Key highlights 1Q17 Macroeconomic environment Financial and operating results Liquidity and investments Market outlook for 2017 4
Slide 5: Macro environment in 1Q17 (y/y)
Macro environment in 1Q17 (y/y) Downstream margin increase Product slate of downstream margin Model downstream margin, USD/bbl Crack margins Refining products (USD/t) 1Q16 4Q16 1Q17 ∆ (y/y) +0,4 USD/bbl Diesel 60 87 77 28% 11,7 12,2 12,0 12,1 Gasoline 143 131 142 -1% 11,0 HHO -122 -110 -118 3% SN 15
Slide 6: Diesel consumption increase (y/y)
Diesel consumption increase (y/y) Positive impact of regulations limiting grey zone in Poland GDP increase1 Fuel consumption (diesel, gasoline)2 Change (%) to respective quarter of the last year mt 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 1Q16 1Q17 1Q16 1Q17 + 19% + 6% 3,0 3,1 2,5 2,7 2,8÷3,2 3,33 2,79 0,89 0,94 Po
Slide 7: Agenda
Agenda Key highlights 1Q17 Macroeconomic environment Financial and operating results Liquidity and investments Market outlook for 2017 7
Slide 8: Financial results in 1Q17
Financial results in 1Q17 PLN m 1Q16 4Q16 1Q17 + 41% Revenues: increase by 41% (y/y) due to higher crude oil prices and sales volumes 22 902 22 875 16 213 Revenues + 0,4 mld EBITDA LIFO: increase by PLN 0,4 bn (y/y) due to positive impact of higher sales volumes, better fuel and 2 655 2 321 non-fuel
Slide 9: EBITDA LIFO
EBITDA LIFO Segments’ results in 1Q17 Positive impact (y/y) of: PLN m sales volumes increase 372 80 2 321 higher fuel and non-fuel margins in retail 2 021 -152 insurance payment related to FCC failure in Kralupy offset by negative impact (y/y) of: macro factors, mainly negative net effect of higher
Slide 10: Downstream – EBITDA LIFO
Downstream – EBITDA LIFO Good result due to higher sales and one-off’s EBITDA LIFO PLN m Higher throughput by 7% (y/y) mainly due to relaunch of FCC 3000 and Steam Cracker installations in 4Q16 after unplanned 2712 shutdown 2291 2363 Sales volumes increase by 4% (y/y) 2021 Sales increase (y/y): dies
Slide 11: Downstream – operational data
Downstream – operational data Higher throughput and sales volumes increase Sales volumes Utilization ratio mt % 9 + 4% Refineries 1Q16 4Q16 1Q17 ∆ (y/y) 8,1 8,1 8,2 7,9 Płock 86% 93% 90% 4 pp 8 7,7 7,6 Unipetrol 66% 90% 88% 22 pp 7,3 7,2 ORLEN Lietuva 94% 97% 86% -8 pp 7 6,8 Petrochemical installati
Slide 12: Downstream: Realization of energy industry cogeneration projects
Downstream Realization of energy industry cogeneration projects Strategic assumptions CCGT Włocławek CCGT Płock Industry cogeneration projects – with the highest profitability / the lowest risk, thanks to guarantee of permanent steam take off, which enables to achieve very high efficiency Good locat
Slide 13: Retail – EBITDA LIFO
Retail – EBITDA LIFO Record-high result in1Q EBITDA LIFO PLN m Sales increase by 2% (y/y) 800 Market share increase in the Czech Rep. and Poland (y/y) 619 600 539 Fuel margin increase in Polish, German and Czech 441 440 markets at comparable level in Lithuania (y/y) 349 369 372 400 301 Non-fuel marg
Slide 14: Retail – operational data
Retail – operational data Increase of sales, fuel margins and non-fuel margins (y/y) Sales volumes Number of petrol stations and market shares (by volume) mt #, % 2,5 + 2% 2,2 2,1 2,0 2,1 2,1 2,0 2,0 2,0 1,9 1,8 1,5 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 Number of Stop Cafe and Stop Cafe Bistr
Slide 15: Upstream – EBITDA LIFO
Upstream – EBITDA LIFO Increase of average production by 8% (y/y) EBITDA LIFO Average production PLN m th. boe/d + 8% 120 15 14,2 14,4 13,9 99* 13,2** 12,8 80 58 60 10 42 27 7,4 7,3 6,7 6,8 14 13 10 7 5 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 EBITDA
Slide 16: Upstream
Upstream Poland Canada Total reserves of crude oil and gas (2P) Total reserves of crude oil and gas (2P) Ca. 11 m boe* Ca. 103 m boe* (43% liquid hydrocarbons, 57% gas) 1Q17 1Q17 Average production: 1,3 th. boe/d (100% gas) Average production: 13,1 th. boe/d (43% liquid hydrocarbons) EBITDA: PLN 10
Slide 17: Agenda
Agenda Key highlights 1Q17 Macroeconomic environment Financial and operating results Liquidity and investments Market outlook for 2017 17
Slide 18: Cash flow
Cash flow Cash flow from operations Cash flow from investments PLN bn PLN bn 0,5 2,3 0,7 -1,7 -0,7 -0,4 -0,2 -0,9 EBITDA LIFO effect Working capital Others Net inflow CAPEX CAPEX liabilities Net outflow LIFO increase from 1Q17 change and others from 1Q17 operations investment 1Q17 1Q17 Working capit
Slide 19: Safe level of debt and financial gearing
Safe level of debt and financial gearing Net debt and gearing Gross debt structure: PLN bn, % Financial gearing EUR 71%, PLN 27%, CAD 2% Diversified financing: PLN 7,3 bn in retail bonds, corporate bonds and Eurobonds 22,4 19,8 Average maturity in 2021 18,3 Investment grade: BBB- stable outlook (Fit
Slide 20: CAPEX
CAPEX Planned CAPEX 2017* Realized CAPEX in 3M17 – split by segment PLN bn, % PLN m 5,5 36 723 153 Downstream 2,1 88 5,8 Growth 3,3 Retail 0,4 446 5,1 Energy 76 Upstream 0,8 Petrochemicals 182 Maintenance 2,2 Refining 188 and regulatory CAPEX Downstream Retail Upstream Corporate CAPEX 2017 functions
Slide 21: Agenda
Agenda Key highlights 1Q17 Macroeconomic environment Financial and operating results Liquidity and investments Market outlook for 2017 21
Slide 22: Market outlook for 2017
Market outlook for 2017 Macroeconomic environment Brent crude oil price – expected increase of crude oil price vs. the average for 2016 due to limited supply as a result of the main producers agreement at simultaneous higher production in US and higher consumption Downstream margin – expected decrea
Slide 23: Thank you for your attention
Thank you for your attention For more information on PKN ORLEN, please contact Investor Relations Department: phone: + 48 24 256 81 80 fax: + 48 24 367 77 11 e-mail: [email protected] www.orlen.pl
Slide 24: Supporting slides
Agenda Supporting slides 24 24
Slide 25: Results – split by quarter
Results – split by quarter PLN m 1Q16 4Q16 1Q17 ∆ (y/y) 3M16 3M17 ∆ Revenues 16 213 22 902 22 875 41% 16 213 22 875 41% EBITDA LIFO* 1 937 2 655 2 321 20% 1 937 2 321 20% LIFO effect -937 526 519 - -937 519 - EBITDA* 1 000 3 181 2 840 184% 1 000 2 840 184% Depreciation -515 -550 -562 -9% -515 -562 -
Slide 26: Results – split by segment
Results – split by segment 1Q17 Corporate Downstream Retail Upstream TOTAL PLN m functions EBITDA LIFO 2 021 372 80 -152 2 321 LIFO effect 519 - - - 519 EBITDA 2 540 372 80 -152 2 840 Depretiation -361 -103 -75 -23 -562 EBIT 2 179 269 5 -175 2 278 EBIT LIFO 1 660 269 5 -175 1 759 1Q16 Corporate Down
Slide 27: EBITDA LIFO – split by segment
EBITDA LIFO – split by segment PLN m 1Q16 4Q16 1Q17 ∆ (y/y) 3M16 3M17 ∆ Downstream 1 755 2 363 2 021 15% 1 755 2 021 15% Retail 301 440 372 24% 301 372 24% Upstream 27 128 80 196% 27 80 196% Corporate functions -146 -276 -152 -4% -146 -152 -4% EBITDA LIFO* 1 937 2 655 2 321 20% 1 937 2 321 20% * Dat
Slide 28: Results - split by company
Results - split by company Others and 1Q17 ORLEN consolidation PLN m PKN ORLEN S.A. Unipetrol 2) Lietuva 2) corrections Total Revenues 17 051 4 774 4 117 -3 067 22 875 EBITDA LIFO 1 169 578 170 404 2 321 LIFO effect 1) 413 58 50 -2 519 EBITDA 1 582 636 220 402 2 840 Depreciation -297 -100 -15 -150 -
Slide 29: ORLEN Lietuva Group
ORLEN Lietuva Group USD m 1Q16 4Q16 1Q17 ∆ y/y 3M16 3M17 ∆ Revenues 663 1 113 1 013 53% 663 1 013 53% EBITDA LIFO 82 77 41 -50% 82 41 -50% EBITDA 59 83 54 -8% 59 54 -8% EBIT 55 79 50 -9% 55 50 -9% Net result 51 95 43 -16% 51 43 -16% Lower sales volumes in 1Q17 by (-) 3% (y/y) as a result of the cycl
Slide 30: UNIPETROL Group
UNIPETROL Group CZK m 1Q16 4Q16 1Q17 ∆ y/y 3M16 3M17 ∆ Revenues 17 686 26 466 29 850 69% 17 686 29 850 69% EBITDA LIFO 349 3 312 3 617 936% 349 3 617 936% EBITDA 558 3 853 3 971 612% 558 3 971 612% EBIT 121 3 282 3 347 2666% 121 3 347 2666% Net result -10 4 185 2 838 - -10 2 838 - Sales increase in
Slide 31: Macro environment in 2Q17
Macro environment in 2Q17 Downstream margin increase Product slate of downstream margin Model downstream margin, USD/bbl Crack margins Refining products (USD/t) 2Q16 1Q17 2Q17 ∆ Q/Q ∆ Y/Y +1,6 USD/bbl Diesel 71 77 85 10% 20% 13,8 Gasoline 170 142 170 20% 0% 11,7 12,2 12,0 12,1 HHO -147 -118 -115 3%
Slide 32: Macro environment in 2Q17
Macro environment in 2Q17 Refining margin and B/U differential increase Petrochemical margin increase Model refining margin and Brent/Ural differential, USD/bbl Model petrochemical margin, EUR/t differential margin + 0,6 USD/bbl + 17 EUR/t 9,2 8,6 998 982 999 8,0 8,0 2,1 957 930 7,4 906 2,6 6,7 2,2
Slide 33: Production data
Production data 1Q16 4Q16 1Q17 ∆ (y/y) ∆ (q/q) 3M16 3M17 ∆ Total crude oil throughput in PKN ORLEN 7 369 8 308 7 894 7% -5% 7 369 7 894 7% Utilization in PKN ORLEN 84% 94% 90% 6 pp -4 pp 84% 90% 6 pp Refinery in Poland 1 Processed crude (kt) 3 486 3 799 3 684 6% -3% 3 486 3 684 6% Utilization 86% 93
Slide 34: Dictionary
Dictionary Model downstream margin = revenues (90,7% Products = 22,8% Gasoline + 44,2% Diesel + 15,3% HHO + 1,0% SN 150 + 2,9% Ethylene + 2,1% Propylene + 1,2% Benzene + 1,2% PX) – costs (input 100% = 6,5% Brent crude oil + 91,1% URAL crude oil + 2,4% natural gas) Model refining margin = revenues (9
Slide 35: Disclaimer
Disclaimer This presentation (“Presentation”) has been prepared by PKN ORLEN S.A. (“PKN ORLEN” or “Company”). Neither the Presentation nor any copy hereof may be copied, distributed or delivered directly or indirectly to any person for any purpose without PKN ORLEN’s knowledge and consent. Copying,
Slide 36: For more information on PKN ORLEN, contact Investor Relations
For more information on PKN ORLEN, please contact Investor Relations Department: phone: + 48 24 256 81 80 fax: + 48 24 367 77 11 e-mail: [email protected] www.orlen.pl