Thai Oil Public Co. Ltd. · SET:TOP
Thai Oil Public — Investor Presentation (March 2017)
83 slides from Thai Oil Public's investor presentation, March 2017
Slide 1: Thai Oil Public Company Limited – Presentation to Investors
Thai Oil Public Company Limited Presentation to Investors March 2017
Slide 2: Disclaimer
-2- Disclaimer The information contained in this presentation is intended solely for your personal reference. Please do not circulate this material. If you are not an intended recipient, you must not read, disclose, copy, retain, distribute or take any action in reliance upon it. Some statements mad
Slide 3: Corporate Vision, Mission and Values
-3- Corporate Vision, Mission and Values A LEADING FULLY INTEGRATED REFINING & PETROCHEMICAL VISION COMPANY IN ASIA PACIFIC • To be in top quartile on performance and return on investment • To create a high-performance organization that promotes MISSION teamwork, innovation and trust for sustainabil
Slide 4: Corporate Governance
-4- Corporate Governance Corporate Governance Policy Roles and Responsibilities The board of directors, management and all staff shall commit to moral principles, equitable treatment to all for Stakeholders stakeholders and perform their duties for the company’s interest with dedication, integrity,
Slide 5: Our Achievement in Sustainable Development
-5- Our Achievement in Sustainable Development The World Most Sustainable Oil & Gas Refining and Marketing Company (from 28 invited companies in oil & gas refining and marketing industry) For 4 consecutive years 60 industries 3,420 companies invited 2,473 companies assessed* For 4 consecutive years
Slide 6: Presentation Agenda
-6- Presentation Agenda TOP GROUP BUSINESS OVERVIEW KEY FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS STRATEGIC INVESTMENT PLANS MARKET OUTLOOK APPENDIX
Slide 7: TOP Group Business Overview
-7- TOP Group Business Overview
Slide 8: Strategic Relationship and Operational Integration with PTT
-8- Strategic Relationship and Operational Integration with PTT Thai Oil’s strong shareholder base 16.0% • Benefits from PTT’s dual role as our major shareholder and key 12.6% 49.1% business partner • All transactions take place at arm’s length 22.3% and in adherence with PTT strong corporate 49.1%
Slide 9: TOP Group Synergy & Strategic Role in PTT Group Value Chain
-9- TOP Group Synergy & Strategic Role in PTT Group Value Chain Upstream Intermediate Downstream Solvent Pentane Diversifying to a broad Hexane range of downstream Toluene SOLVENTS The majority of Mixed-Xylene products to enjoy higher refined petroleum profit margins and Paraxylene products are sold
Slide 10: Key Milestones: 55 Years, A Long Track Record of Success
-10- Key Milestones: 55 Years, A Long Track Record of Success 1961 – 1997 2004 – 2011 Today Capacity expansion and initial stage of Listing, expansion and A leading integrated refining and business diversification diversification petrochemical group in Asia Pacific 1961 1970 2004 • 275 kbd refinery
Slide 11: Thai Oil Group Business Structure
-11- Thai Oil Group Business Structure 100.0% 100.0% 74.0% PTT 26.0% 100.0% 100.0% Thai Paraxylene Thai Lube Base Thaioil Power Thaioil Marine Thaioil Ethanol Thaioil (TOP) (TPX) (TLB) (TP) (TM) (TET) Aromatics Capacity: Lube Base Oil • 5 Oil & Chemical Tankers Sells Electricity/Steam to Capacity :
Slide 12: Process Linkage: Beauty of Integration
-12- Process Linkage: Beauty of Integration PROCESS FLOWCHART Thai Paraxylene ADIP FUELGAS Thai Oil ISOM LPG 20,000 MX HDT-1 MX 40,000 HDT-2 HDT-3 CCR-1 ULG95 85,000 CCR-2 CDU-1 50,000 ULG91 45,000 KMT-1 CDU-2 JET KMT-2 50,000 CDU-3 165,000 KEROSENE HVU-1 Thai Lube Base HVU-2 HVU-3 FCCU HDS-2 10,400
Slide 13: One of Region's Leading Refineries
-13- One of Region’s Leading Refineries Total Thailand crude refining capacity 1,235 kbd Market shares for refined petroleum product3 Thai Oil 22% Share 31% 31% Nameplate Capacity market market Fang (3 kbpd) shares shares Thai Oil (275 kbpd) PTT’s Principal Refiner FY/16 Q4/16 BCP (120 kbpd) Esso (1
Slide 14: Strategic Location with Competitive Advantages in Access to Key Markets
-14- Strategic Location with Competitive Advantages in Access to Key Markets Close proximity to the key domestic markets Access to Indochina markets through deep water ports Our strategic location provide us with LAOS 1. Close proximity with the key domestic markets and VIETNAM Indochina Bangkok Sri
Slide 15: Optimized & Flexible Operations…Superior Performance
-15- Optimized & Flexible Operations…Superior Performance Crude Assays based on Sources of Product Domestic demand for Reference Price TOP configuration* Crude output petroleum products** % S = 1.43 % S = 2.52 % S = 0.78 % S = 1.97 3% SAUDI 1 LPG Others *** 4% API = 32.0 API = 31.2 API = 39.4 API =
Slide 16: Refinery: Ongoing High Utilization Rate & Domestic Sales Portion
Refining -16- Refinery: Ongoing High Utilization Rate & Domestic Sales Portion TOP/ Domestic Refinery Utilization Rate AEC Oil Demand Growth Unit: % Utilization Rate Unit: % Demand Growth YoY 110% 109% 110% 8.9% 108%108% 110% 106%107%107% 107% 107% 6.5% 6.5% 6.8% 5.7% 5.9% 5.8% 5.0% 3.8% 5.4% 90% 94
Slide 17: Competitive Performance Benchmarking
-17- Competitive Performance Benchmarking Solomon Associates is the independent 3rd party who applies Comparative Performance Analysis methodology to industry peers in the area of reliability, equipment, utilization, operating expense, gross margin and overall performance range and come up with comp
Slide 18: TOP Group Key Highlights
-18- TOP Group Key Highlights Thailand’s largest and Diversified earnings 2 one of the region’s through integration 1 most advanced and with, and significant competitive refineries contribution from, our subsidiaries Strategic relationship Strategic location with Industry with high 3 4 5 and operati
Slide 19: 2016 Key Highlights
-19- 2016 KEY HIGHLIGHTS
Slide 20: 2016 Key Market Drivers Highlights
Key Highlights -20- 2016 Key Market Drivers Highlights Refinery Rising Dubai crude price Dec/16 compared to Dec/15 Implication supported by agreement of OPEC & Non-OPEC to cut oil 1.6 $/bbl inventory gain* output by 1.8 MBD in 1H/17. (from stock loss (1.9) $/bbl in 2015) * * Based on refinery inta
Slide 21: 2016 Key Achievements
Key Highlights -21- 2016 Key Achievements Key Achievements 2016 TOP Group Net Profit Unit : million THB (MB) Operational Maintain high reliable production Excellence Net Operating Profit (before tax) Profitability Improvement 2016 2015 Stock G/(L) (before tax) Reversal of NRV/(NRV) (before tax) Re
Slide 22: 2016 Profitability Improvement
Key Highlights -22- 2016 Profitability Improvement Cost Management General & Admin , Procurement & warehouse , Operation & Margin Improvement Maintenance , Project & (Supply & Marketing / Manpower management Unit: million THB Hydrocarbon Management) Higher domestic/ 527 CLMV petroleum sale 521 257 O
Slide 23: Integrated Margin & Competitive Cash Cost
Financial -23- Integrated Margin & Competitive Cash Cost Gross Refining Margin Refinery’s Cash Cost (Unit: US$/bbl) (Unit: US$/bbl) Market GRM Accounting GRM (Market GRM + Stock G/L) Operating Cost Interest Expense (net) 9.5 (excl. one-time non- 7.8 operating item) 6.8 6.4 6.2 5.7 5.9 6.0 5.3 5.1 5.
Slide 24: Financial Performance
Financial -24- Financial Performance Sales Revenue EBITDA Unit: Million THB Unit: Million THB 447,432 EBITDA (excl stk G/L & NRV) EBITDA (incl stk G/L & NRV) 446,241 399,125 414,575 390,090 32,675 31,099 28,760 25,496 318,391 293,569 22,808 22,337 25,492 284,123 274,739 22,897 23,868 21,393 20,350 1
Slide 25: 2016 TOP Group Strong Financial Position & Financial Ratios
Financial -25- 2016 TOP Group Strong Financial Position & Financial Ratios Statements of Financial Position Consolidated Long-Term Debt as at 31 Dec 16 1) (Unit: million THB) Total Long-Term Debt Net Debt 192,166 203,865 217,731 75,434 million THB 15,526 million THB Cash & ST 30,700 (US$ 2,095 milli
Slide 26: 2016 Dividend Payment
Financial -26- 2016 Dividend Payment Dividend Policy : Not less than 25% of consolidated net profit after deducting reserves, subject to cash flow and investment plan Unit : THB/Share EPSR 2H dividend 1H dividend Year Dividend 10.40 9.19 9.40 7.82 8.13 7.28 5.91 6.04 5.97 4.39 4.57 2.75 3.00*** 2.00
Slide 27: Strategic Investment Plans
-27- Strategic Investment Plans
Slide 28: Broadening Growth, Capturing Step Out, Pursuing Sustainability
Strategy -28- Broadening Growth, Capturing Step Out ,Pursuing Sustainability Vision A Leading fully integrated refining and petrochemical company in Asia Pacific END Vision Top quartile Top Qrt ROIC & DJSI Measurement performer NP Growth (Sustainability) by 2021 • Operational excellence • Complete p
Slide 29: Thaioil Group Investment Matrix
Strategy -29- Thaioil Group Investment Matrix New Geography Myanmar, Vietnam, Indonesia Integrated Downstream (B2B, B2C/retail, logistics, trading) New Business AEC (Technology driven) Specialties Core Business Growth Integrated Refinery Solvent, Marine, Power, Ethanol Thailand Refinery Downstre
Slide 30: Strategic Investment Plan Approved by Board of Directors – CAPEX Plan
Updated CAPEX plan -30- Strategic Investment Plan Approved by Board of Directors CAPEX Plan (Unit US$ million) Remaining capital investment Projects 2016 2017 2018 Reliability, Efficiency and Flexibility Improvement 32 45 25 Benzene Derivatives – LAB 41 11 13 Power – 2 SPPs 43 Infrastructure Improve
Slide 31: Key Projects Update: Successfully COD of LAB & TOP SPP
Key Projects Update -31- Key Projects Update : Successfully COD of LAB & TOP SPP Project : LAB Project : TOP SPP TPX 75% & Mitsui 25% , CAPEX 400 M$ TOP owns 100% , CAPEX 380 M$ Feedstock : Kerosene 532 KTA, Benzene 33 KTA Power capacity : 239 MW (20% TOP Group & 80% EGAT) Product : LAB 100 KTA, By
Slide 32: Study Project: Clean Fuel Project (CFP)
Project Update -32- Study Project : Clean Fuel Project (CFP) Main objectives of CFP Enhance competitive advantage of the refinery and maintain 1st quartile performer Enhance capability to upgrade lower value product into higher value product and ability to process heavier (cheaper) crude oil CFP
Slide 33: 1H-17 & 2017 Market Outlook
-33- 1H-17 & 2017 MARKET OUTLOOK • Crude Oil • Petroleum Products • Aromatics • Base Oil & Bitumen • Linear Alkyl Benzene (LAB)
Slide 34: Crude Oil
-34- CRUDE OIL
Slide 35: World Economic Outlook
Crude Oil -35- World Economic Outlook 2017’s world GDP growth at 3.4% and rises to 3.6% in 2018 Growth (%YoY) China India Thailand US EU World 2016 2017 2018 Jan-17(1) Jan-17(1) Jan-17(1) 12% US 1.6% 2.3% 2.5% 8% EU 1.7% 1.6% 1.6% China 6.7% 6.5% 6.0% 4% India 6.6% 7.2% 7.7% 0% Thailand 3.2%(2) 3.2%
Slide 36: Global Oil Demand Growth Projection
Crude Oil -36- Global Oil Demand Growth Projection IEA forecasted 2017’s global oil demand to grow by 1.3 MBD, driven by Asia Europe FSU North America Unit: KBD 250 280 390 160 2015 110 2016 20 2017 -20 -20 Middle East -20 160 Latin America Asia 60 1140 30 1030 30 890 Africa -70 -120 230 120 140 Dem
Slide 37: Non-OPEC Supply Growth Projection
Crude Oil -37- Non-OPEC Supply Growth Projection IEA estimated 2017’s Non-OPEC oil supply growth to grow by 400 KBD North America Europe FSU Unit: KBD 880 220 130 170 170 2015 290 30 2016 2017 -60 Middle East -580 Latin America -10 -20 170 Asia -30 180 180 Africa 30 -90 -320 -350 Non OPEC -30 Growth
Slide 38: Crude Oil Market: Oil Market to Rebalance in 2017
Crude Oil -38- Crude Oil Market: Oil Market to Rebalance in 2017 Dubai Price Movement $/BBL China’s stock OPEC failed to No consensus on 80 market crash output freeze OPEC agreed to cut agree on an 60 output ceiling BREXIT output to 32.5 MBD 40 Non-OPEC agreed to cut Iran’s nuclear Canada wildfire o
Slide 39: Expectation of High Compliance For Output Cut Deal
Crude Oil -39- 1 Expectation of High Compliance For Output Cut Deal A High Compliance From OPEC and Non-OPEC B Bigger Cut Than Agreed Level From Saudi OPEC & Non-OPEC Supply Cut MBD Major OPEC Production Cut MBD 0.8 2.0 1.722 123% 0.6 1.5 1.481 0.558 0.4 0.403 40% 0.2 59% 92% 1.0 0.0 1.164 Saudi Ara
Slide 40: Rebalancing Oil Market, Driven By Output Cut Deal and Growing Oil Demand
Crude Oil -40- Rebalancing Oil Market, Driven By Output Cut Deal and 2 Growing Oil Demand A Market to Rebalance in 2017 B Growing Oil Demand on Improving Economy Global Demand/Supply Balance Global Oil Demand Growth (MBD) MBD MBD 100 2017 4.0 2.0 Demand: + 1.3 MBD YoY 98 Supply: + 0.1 MBD YoY 3.0 1.
Slide 41: Risks Over Rising Crude Oil Supply
Crude Oil -41- 3 Risks Over Rising Crude Oil Supply A Rising Libyan Output After Being Disrupted B Concerns Over Resuming Nigeria’s Oil Supply MBD Libya’s Oil Production MBD Nigeria’s Oil Production 2.5 2.5 Capacity : 2.2 MBD 2.0 2.0 Capacity : 1.6 MBD 1.5 1.5 Gov’t Target :1.25 MBD Market view :1.0
Slide 42: Petroleum Products
-42- PETROLEUM PRODUCTS
Slide 43: Still-High Margins from Demand Outpacing Refinery Addition
Refinery -43- Still-High Margins from Demand Outpacing Refinery Addition Singapore Cracking GRM ($/BBL) 8.5 8.0 7.9 7.6 7.7 6.7 6.2 6.5 5.8 6.1 5.0 5.2 Y2014 Q1-15 Q2-15 Q3-15 Q4-15 Y2015 Q1-16 Q2-16 Q3-16 Q4-16 Y2016 Q1TD-17* ($/BBL) Q1-16 Q2-16 Q3-16 Q4-16 2016 Q1TD-17* Key Highlights in 1H-17 ULG
Slide 44: Better Gasoline Margins on Solid Demand Growth and Low ME Supply
Refinery -44- Better Gasoline Margins on Solid Demand Growth 1 and Low ME Supply A Still-high Gasoline Demand from Low Oil Prices B Deficit in Q2/17 on High Demand MBD Asia Pacific Gasoline Demand MBD Asia Pacific Gasoline Balance 7.5 600 1H-17 : 7.0 MBD (+4% YoY) 400 7.0 200 6.5 0 6.0 -200 Jan Feb
Slide 45: Steady Middle Distillate Cracks from Recovered Demand and Cold Weather
Refinery -45- Steady Middle Distillate Cracks from Recovered 2 Demand on Improved Economy and Cold Weather A Better Demand from Recovered Global Economy B Greater Demand due to Cold Weather Asia Pacific Middle Distillate Demand U.S. Middle Distillate Demand MBD MBD 13.0 6.0 1H-17 : 11.7 MBD (+2.4% Y
Slide 46: Firm Refinery Margins in 2017 as Demand Outpaces Refinery Addition
Refinery -46- Firm Refinery Margins in 2017 as Demand Outpaces Refinery Addition Lower refinery addition in 2017 due to regulatory restrictions in Japan and delayed startup of two Chinese mega refineries CDU Addition VS Additional Demand – AP & ME Middle East China Other AP Japan India Vietnam Tea
Slide 47: Thailand Oil Demand Growth
Domestic -47- Thailand Oil Demand Growth Thailand Oil Demand Growth Average Year on Year Y 2015(B) Y 2016(B) Y 2017(C) 2011-2015(B) Mogas (A) +7.1% +13.3% +9.8% +1.3% Jet/Kero +4.4% +9.7% +6.8% +3.7% Diesel (A) +3.4% +4.0% +3.1% +2.4% Total +4.4% +7.1% +5.4% +2.3% GDP +3.4% +2.8% N/A +3.2%(D) Thaila
Slide 48: Aromatics
-48- AROMATICS
Slide 49: Firm Aromatics Market due to Strong Downstream Demand
Aromatics -49- Firm Aromatics Market due to Strong Downstream Demand Aromatics Market PX CFR Taiwan-ULG95 ($/TON) BZ FOB Korea-ULG95 ($/TON) 372 332 315 341 317 313 288 280 255 246 256 233 185 156 138 174 163 98 115 101 97 74 Q4-15 Q1-16 Q1-15 Q2-15 Q3-15 Q2-16 Q3-16 Q4-16 Y2015 Y2016 Q1TD-17* Y2015
Slide 50: Positive PX Outlook due to Strong Chinese Polyester Demand
Aromatics -50- 1 Positive PX Outlook due to Strong Chinese Polyester Demand A New PTA Capacity Addition Supports Market B Heavy Maintenance in Q2-17 Supports Market AP & ME PX and PTA Capacity Addition Asian PX and PTA Plant Maintenance Mil TON Mil TON Two fires at NE Asia refineries in 1.0 1.5 end-
Slide 51: AP/ME PX Demand Growth and Capacity Addition
Aromatics -51- AP/ME PX Demand Growth and Capacity Addition PX-ULG95 313 545 471 485 279 256 317 Forecast 2010-2016 (CAGR) 2017-2021 (CAGR) Dem: 7.1% Dem: 5.2% Cap: 7.8% Cap: 5.7% Sources: PCI WoodMackenzie (Dec’16)
Slide 52: Firm Chinese SM Demand Drives BZ Market
Aromatics -52- 2 Firm Chinese SM Demand Drives BZ Market A Balanced Market due to New Downstream Plant B Heavy Maintenance in Q2-17 Supports Market AP & ME BZ and Downstream Capacity Addition AP BZ, SM and Phenol Plant Maintenance Mil TON Mil TON Two fires at NE Asia refineries in 0.5 1.0 end-Jan bo
Slide 53: AP/ME BZ Demand Growth and Capacity Addition
Aromatics -53- AP/ME BZ Demand Growth and Capacity Addition 2017-2021 (CAGR) 2010-2016 (CAGR) Dem: 5.0% Dem: 3.7% Cap: 2.1% Cap: 4.1% Source: IHS as of Jan’17
Slide 54: Base Oil & Bitumen
-54- BASE OIL & BITUMEN
Slide 55: Firm Base Oil Market in H1 on Lower Global Base Oil Capacity Addition
Base Oil & Bitumen -55- Firm Base Oil Market in H1 on Lower Global Base Oil Capacity Addition amid Seasonal Demand 500SN – HSFO ($/TON) 1 Global Additional Nameplate Capacity Mil TON Group 1 Group 2 Group 3 Net Capacity 495 506 2.0 450 431 427 409 443 442 369 399 367 412 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.0 -2.0 H1-16 H
Slide 56: Stable Base Oil Market on Lower Global Base Oil Capacity Addition
Base Oil & Bitumen -56- Stable Base Oil Market on Lower Global Base Oil Capacity Addition 1 Global Additional Nameplate Capacity 2 AP Additional Nameplate Capacity Million TON Million TON 8.0 8.0 4.7 6.0 6.0 4.0 1.8 2.9 4.0 1.5 1.6 1.8 0.7 2.1 2.0 1.1 1.2 2.0 1.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 -2.0 -2.0 0.3 -0.3 -
Slide 57: Firm Bitumen Market on Seasonal Demand in the Region
Base Oil & Bitumen -57- Firm Bitumen Market on Seasonal Demand in the Region Bitumen-HSFO ($/TON) 1 Import Volume of Major Asian Players in 2016 KTON/MONTH China KTON/MONTH India 82 98 56 23 20 600 200 -32 -7 -18 300 100 -48 -61 -49 -80 0 0 Q1-15 Q2-15 Q3-15 Q4-15 Q1-16 Q2-16 Q3-16 Q4-16 Y2014 Y2015
Slide 58: Linear Alkyl Benzene (LAB)
-58- Linear Alkyl Benzene (LAB)
Slide 59: Stable LAB Market on Higher Maintenance in China
LAB -59- Stable LAB Market on Higher Maintenance in China LAB Market LAB Spread** ($/TON) AP/ME Effective Maintenance KTA 707 654 666 675 627 656 200 635 627 619 606 543 525 150 100 50 0 Q1-15 Q2-15 Q3-15 Q4-15 Q1-16 Q2-16 Q3-16 Q4-16 Y2014 Y2015 Y2016 Q1TD-17* H1-16 H2-16 H1-17 Others* India China
Slide 60: Conclusion
-60- CONCLUSION
Slide 61: 2017 Market Outlook Conclusion
Conclusion -61- 2017 Market Outlook Conclusion (vs. 2016) Crude Oil Oil Market to Rebalance in 2017, Driven by Output Cut Deal and Growing Oil Demand Still-High Margins from Demand Outpacing Refinery Addition Refinery Firm Aromatics Market from Stronger Demand Despite Aromatics Increasing New Capaci
Slide 62: Appendix
-62- APPENDIX • Q4/16 Performance analysis • CDU Addition VS Additional Demand – AP & ME • World GRM / Inventories • Thailand petroleum demand by products
Slide 63: Q4/16: Stronger Mkt GRM & Stock Gain from Rising DB Price
Refining -63- Q4/16: Stronger Mkt GRM & Stock Gain from Rising DB Price Dubai Crude Price & Key Petroleum Product Spreads Refinery Utilization Q3/16 Q4/16 2016 2015 2015 2016 2015 107% 110% 108% 108% $/bbl Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY16 FY15 DUBAI (DB) 51.9 61.3 49.7 40.7 30.4 43.2 43.2 48.3 41.3 50.9
Slide 64: Q4/16: Fallen Margins Mainly Pressured by Lower PX spread
Aromatics/LAB -64- Q4/16: Fallen Margins Mainly Pressured by Lower PX spread Aromatics Spreads and Margins Aromatics Production 2015 2016 2015 Q3/16 Q4/16 2016 2015 $/ton Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY16 FY15 80% 82% 81% 81% PX*-ULG95 255 246 233 288 332 315 341 280 317 256 Q1TD’17 (10 Mar 17) PX-ULG95
Slide 65: Q4/16: Softer Contribution as Lube Base & Bitumen Spreads Declined
Lube Base Oil -65- Q4/16: Soften Contribution as Declined Lube base & Bitumen spread Base Oil & Bitumen Spreads & Margins Base oil Production 2015 2016 2015 Q3/16 Q4/16 2016 2015 $/ton Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY16 FY15 62%* 88% 81% 86% * 1-month MTA of Lube Base complex during Aug-Sep 2016 500SN-HSF
Slide 66: Q4/16 Power Sector Performance…One of Future Earnings Driver
Power -66- Q4/16 Power Sector Performance…One of Future Earnings Driver Power Business Sector Equity holding in SPP GPSC **** Power & Steam Sales ***TOP shareholding 24.29% (8.91% via TOP and 20.79% via TP) GPSC is an associate company of TOP. Electricity(1) 2,055 Equity method is applied to recogni
Slide 67: Beauty of Integration…Sustainable GIM
Performance Breakdown -67- Beauty of Integration…Sustainable GIM (Unit: US$/bbl) 9.9 12.2 12.8 13.0 14.3 12.4 13.1 7.1 8.2 1.4 Product to Feed Q1/15 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/16 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY/16 FY/15 8.8 7.4 6.6 8.5 6.1 5.7 7.8 4.4 4.3 5.2 Crude Marketing GRM (excluded stock gain / loss) Q1/15 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/16 Q2 Q3
Slide 68: 2016: Performance Breakdown by Business Unit
Performance Breakdown -68- 2016: Performance Breakdown by Business Unit Utilization/Production (%) & Net Profit (million THB) Key Points • Refinery: better contribution driven by high u- rate & inventory gain tracking oil price • Aromatic/LAB: higher contribution from improved product spreads & addi
Slide 69: 2016 TOP Group Consolidated P&L
Financial -69- 2016 TOP Group Consolidated P&L (million THB) Q4/16 Q3/16 QoQ+/(-) Q4/15 YoY+/(-) 2016 2015 YoY+/(-) Sales Revenue 77,104 68,476 8,628 68,446 8,658 274,739 293,569 (18,830)A A Lower overall product price level compared to Hedging Gain / (Loss) (330) 206 (536) 1,053 (1,383) (243) 1,489
Slide 70: 2016 TOP Group Consolidated Cash Flow
Financial -70- 2016 TOP Group Consolidated Cash Flow (Unit: Million THB) (Unit: Million THB) Operating Cash Flow Investments 2016 2015 2016 2015 Operating Cash Flow 23,182 31,708 Investments (18,352) 2,530 Net income & non-cash adj. 32,832 25,453 + ST investments (12,057) 12,881 Change in working ca
Slide 71: Asia Pacific & Middle East Refinery Addition
Refinery -71- Asia Pacific & Middle East Refinery Addition CDU Addition VS Additional Demand – AP & ME Start-up Country Nameplate Company period) (KBD) Middle East Other AP China Japan Q1-16 India 300 IOC Paradip India Teapot Q2-16 China 60 CNOOC Taizhou Vietnam Net Addition AP & ME Demand Q3-16 Qat
Slide 72: Asian Margin Vs. US-EU Margin
World GRM -72- Asian Margin Vs. US-EU margin $/BBL SINGAPORE GRM $/BBL EU - US Margins 12 40 8 30 4 20 0 10 0 -4 -10 -8 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 BRENT CRACK BRENT HYDRO WTI CRACK SING CRACK SING HYDRO U.S. Crude Refinery Input EU 16 Crude Refinery Input J
Slide 73: Global Crude Oil Inventories
Inventories -73- Global Crude Oil Inventories U.S. Crude Stocks (excl. SPR) Crude Oil, Cushing, Oklahoma MBBL MBBL Source : EIA Source : EIA 600 80 550 70 500 60 50 450 40 400 30 350 20 300 10 250 0 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 5yr-range 2016 2017 avg 12-16
Slide 74: Global Gasoline Inventories
Inventories -74- Global Gasoline Inventories U.S. Gasoline Stocks Singapore Gasoline Stocks MBBL MBBL Source : EIA Source : IE Singapore 280 20 260 240 10 220 200 180 0 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 5yr-range 2016 2017 avg 12-16 5yr-range 2016 2017 avg 12-16
Slide 75: Global Middle Distillate Inventories
Inventories -75- Global Middle Distillate Inventories U.S. Diesel Stocks Singapore Middle Distillate Stocks MBBL MBBL Source : EIA Source : IE Singapore 180 20 160 140 10 120 100 80 0 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 5yr-range 2016 2017 avg 12-16 5yr-range 2016
Slide 76: Global Fuel Oil Inventories
Inventories -76- Global Fuel Oil Inventories U.S. Residual Fuel Oil Stocks Singapore Residual Fuel Oil Stocks MBBL MBBL Source : EIA Source : IE Singapore 50 40 30 40 20 30 10 20 0 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 5yr-range 2016 2017 avg 12-16 5yr-range 2016 20
Slide 77: China's Refined Product Exports
China Export -77- China’s Refined Product Exports KBD China’s Gasoline Exports KBD China’s Gasoil Exports Source : China Custom Source : China Custom 350 600 300 500 250 400 200 300 150 200 100 50 100 0 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Slide 78: Domestic LPG Demand
Thailand petroleum demand by products -78- Domestic LPG Demand Thailand LPG Demand LPG Demand Highlight • In Jan-17, LPG demand fell slightly by 0.7%YoY on account of 8.7%YoY lower usages in automobile sector, as a result of fuel switching from LPG to Mogas. However, the LPG demand was supported by
Slide 79: Domestic Gasoline/Gasohol Demand
Thailand petroleum demand by products -79- Domestic Gasoline/Gasohol Demand Thailand Gasoline/Gasohol Demand GASOLINE/Gasohol Demand Highlight • In Jan-17, Mogas demand rose moderately by 4.3%YoY to an average 28.7 ML/day. Although, the retail price of Mogas is higher, Mogas demand was still support
Slide 80: Domestic Jet Demand
Thailand petroleum demand by products -80- Domestic Jet Demand Thailand JET-A1 Demand JET Demand Highlight • In Jan-17, Jet consumption increased significantly by 7.5% over the corresponding period last year mainly owning to booming tourism industry, leading to 8.4%YoY higher aircraft movement. The
Slide 81: Domestic Gasoil and NGV Demand
Thailand petroleum demand by products -81- Domestic Gasoil and NGV Demand Thailand Gasoil Demand Diesel Demand Highlight • In Jan-17, Diesel demand dropped slightly by 1.0% YoY as a result of flooding situation in Southern part of Thailand which lower agricultural activity and goods transportation.
Slide 82: Domestic Fuel Oil Demand
Thailand petroleum demand by products -82- Domestic Fuel Oil Demand Thailand Fuel Oil Demand Fuel Oil Demand Highlight • In Jan-17, Fuel Oil consumption fell sharply by 14.2%YoY, as a result of sharply falling by 91.7%YoY of electricity sector demand which pressured by no gas field maintenance. Last
Slide 83: Thank You
-83- Thank You Any queries, please contact: at email: [email protected] Tel: 662-797-2999 / 662-797-2961 Fax: 662-797-2976
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