Thai Oil Public Co. Ltd. · SET:TOP
Thai Oil Public — Investor Presentation (October 2018)
84 slides from Thai Oil Public's investor presentation, Oct 12, 2018
Slide 1: Presentation to Investors October 2018
-1- Thai Oil Public Company Limited Presentation to Investors October 2018
Slide 2: Disclaimer
-2- Disclaimer The information contained in this presentation is intended solely for your personal reference. Please do not circulate this material. If you are not an intended recipient, you must not read, disclose, copy, retain, distribute or take any action in reliance upon it. Some statements mad
Slide 3: Corporate Vision, Mission and Values
-3- Corporate Vision, Mission and Values A LEADING FULLY INTEGRATED REFINING & PETROCHEMICAL VISION COMPANY IN ASIA PACIFIC • To be in top quartile on performance and return on investment • To create a high-performance organization that promotes MISSION teamwork, innovation and trust for sustainabil
Slide 4: Corporate Governance
-4- Corporate Governance Corporate Governance Policy Roles and Responsibilities The board of directors, management and all staff shall commit to moral principles, equitable treatment to all for Stakeholders stakeholders and perform their duties for the company’s interest with dedication, integrity,
Slide 5: Our Achievement in Sustainable Development
-5- Our Achievement in Sustainable Development 6th Consecutive Year as the Member of DJSI Emerging Markets 5th Consecutive Year of leading positions: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Slide 6: Presentation Agenda
-6- Presentation Agenda TOP GROUP BUSINESS OVERVIEW KEY FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS STRATEGIC INVESTMENT PLANS MARKET OUTLOOK APPENDIX
Slide 7: TOP Group Business Overview
-7- TOP GROUP BUSINESS OVERVIEW
Slide 8: Strategic Relationship and Operational Integration with PTT
-8- Strategic Relationship and Operational Integration with PTT Thai Oil’s strong shareholder base 15.6% • Benefits from PTT’s dual role as our major shareholder and key 16.2% 48.0% business partner • All transactions take place at arm’s length and in adherence with 20.2% strong corporate PTT 49.0%
Slide 9: TOP Group Synergy & Strategic Role in PTT Group Value Chain
-9- TOP Group Synergy & Strategic Role in PTT Group Value Chain Upstream Intermediate Downstream Solvent Pentane Diversifying to a broad Hexane range of downstream Toluene SOLVENTS The majority of Mixed-Xylene products to enjoy higher refined petroleum profit margins and Paraxylene products are sold
Slide 10: Key Milestones: 57 Years, A Long Track Record of Success
-10- Key Milestones: 57 Years, A Long Track Record of Success 1961 – 1997 2004 – 2011 Today Capacity expansion and initial stage of Listing, expansion and A leading integrated refining and business diversification diversification petrochemical group in Asia Pacific 1961 1970 2004 • 275 kbd refinery
Slide 11: Thai Oil Group Business Structure
-11- Thai Oil Group Business Structure 100.0% 100.0% 74.0% PTT 26.0% 100.0% 100.0% Thai Paraxylene Thai Lube Base Thaioil Power Thaioil Marine Thaioil Ethanol Thaioil (TOP) (TPX) (TLB) (TP) (TM) (TET) Aromatics Capacity: Lube Base Oil Sells Electricity/Steam to • 4 Oil & Chemical Tankers 50.0% Parax
Slide 12: Process Linkage: Beauty of Integration
-12- Process Linkage: Beauty of Integration PROCESS FLOWCHART Thai Paraxylene ADIP FUEL GAS Thai Oil ISOM LPG 20,000 MX HDT-1 MX 40,000 HDT-2 HDT-3 CCR-1 ULG95 85,000 CCR-2 CDU-1 50,000 CCR ULG91 45,000 KMT-1 CDU-2 KMT-2 JET 50,000 CDU-3 180,000 KEROSENE HVU-1 HVU-2 FCCU HDS-2 HVU-3 HVU-3 10,400 95,
Slide 13: One of Region's Leading Refineries
-13- One of Region’s Leading Refineries Total Thailand crude refining capacity 1,235 kbd Market shares for refined petroleum product3 Thai Oil 22% Share Nameplate Capacity 29% 29% Fang (3 kbpd) market market shares shares Thai Oil (275 kbpd) PTT’s Principal Refiner Q2/18 Q1/18 BCP (120 kbpd) Esso (1
Slide 14: Strategic Location with Competitive Advantages in Access to Key Markets
-14- Strategic Location with Competitive Advantages in Access to Key Markets Access to Indochina markets through deep Close proximity to the key domestic markets water ports and trucks Our strategic location provide us with LAOS 1. Close proximity with the VIETNAM key domestic markets Bangkok and In
Slide 15: Optimized & Flexible Operations…Superior Performance
Crude -15- Optimized & Flexible Operations…Superior Performance Crude Assays based on Sources of Product Domestic demand for Reference Price TOP configuration* Crude output petroleum products** Thai Oil is able to diversify its type of crude intake and product outputs to maximize demand and margin %
Slide 16: Refinery: Maintain High Utilization Rate
Refining -16- Refinery: Maintain High Utilization Rate TOP/ Domestic Refinery Utilization Rate Domestic Oil Demand Unit: % Utilization Rate H1/17 H1/18 KBD 3.4% 114% 800 111% 112% 112% 113% 108% 112% 108% 108% 110% 600 2.0% 98% 98% 97% 400 90% 94% 94% 94% 3.6% 89% 90% 91% 7.8% 200 70% Q1/17 Q2 Q3 Q4
Slide 17: Competitive Performance Benchmarking
-17- Competitive Performance Benchmarking Solomon for GOC 3(1) Category 2016 : TOP 2014 : TOP Solomon Associates is the independent 3rd party who applies Comparative Performance Analysis methodology to industry peers in (2) the area of reliability, equipment, utilization, operating expense, gross ma
Slide 18: TOP Group Key Highlights
-18- TOP Group Key Highlights Thailand’s largest and Diversified earnings 2 one of the region’s through integration 1 most advanced and with, and significant competitive refineries contribution from, our subsidiaries Strategic relationship Strategic location with Industry with high 3 4 5 and operati
Slide 19: Key Financial Highlights
-19- KEY FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS
Slide 20: Q2/18 Key Market Drivers Highlights
Key Highlights -20- Q2/18 Key Market Drivers Highlights Refinery Soften refinery margins pressured by weaken product spread Implication 1) especially gasoline from abundant inventory worldwide and lower Mkt GRM at 4.0 $/bbl middle distillate spread as winter demand ended (Q1/18 = 5.7 $/bbl) Risi
Slide 21: Q2/18 Key Achievements
Key Highlights -21- Q2/18 Key Achievements Key Achievements Q2/18 TOP Group Net Profit Operational Maintain high reliable production Unit : million THB (MB) Excellence Q2/18 Q1/18 Net Operating Profit F/X gain/(loss) Reversal of NRV/(NRV) & Adjusted to cost Others i.e. Hedging gain/(loss) & Refine
Slide 22: Q2/18 Margin and Productivity Improvement
Key Highlights -22- Q2/18 Margin and Productivity Improvement (VS Corporate Plan) Cost Management General & Admin , Procurement & warehouse , Operation & Maintenance , Margin Improvement Project & Manpower (Hydrocarbon Management : HMR) management and Productivity Improvement Unit: million THB (Non
Slide 23: Integrated Margin & Competitive Cash Cost
Financial -23- Integrated Margin & Competitive Cash Cost Gross Refining Margin Refinery’s Cash Cost (Unit: US$/bbl) (Unit: US$/bbl) Market GRM Accounting GRM (Market GRM + Stock G/L) Operating Cost Interest Expense (net) (excl. one-time non- operating item) Higher group cash cost in Q2/18 9.0 mainly
Slide 24: Financial Performance
Financial -24- Financial Performance Sales Revenue EBITDA Unit: Million THB Unit: Million THB 446,241 447,432 EBITDA (excl stk G/L & NRV) EBITDA (incl stk G/L & NRV) 414,575 390,090 36,925 337,388 32,675 33,448 293,569 28,760 31,099 274,739 22,808 25,49225,496 23,868 22,337 188,328 20,350 19,541 16,
Slide 25: Q2/18 TOP Group Strong Financial Position & Financial Ratios
Financial -25- Q2/18 TOP Group Strong Financial Position & Financial Ratios Statements of Financial Position Consolidated Long-Term Debt as at 30 Jun 18 (Unit: million THB) Total IBD Net Cash 241,040 241,473 75,413 million THB 1,497 million THB 36,075 37,588 Trade Payable Cash & ST 76,910 / Others (
Slide 26: Thaioil Liability Management (LM)
-26- Thaioil Liability Management (LM) Before Thaioil Treasury Center (TTC) After Thaioil Treasury Center (TTC) Establishment Establishment USD Bond Value (Million) Portion USD Bond Value (Million) Portion TOP 2023 216 M$ 22% TOP 2023 500 M$ 50% TOP 2043 173 M$ 17% TTC 2023 284 M$ 28% TOP 2043 500 M
Slide 27: 2018 Dividend Payment
Financial -27- 2018 Dividend Payment Dividend Policy : Not less than 25% of consolidated net profit after deducting reserves, subject to cash flow and investment plan Unit : THB/Share EPSR 2H dividend 1H dividend Year Dividend 12.18 10.40 9.19 9.40 8.66 7.82 7.28 5.91 6.04 5.97 5.10 4.39 4.57 2.75 3
Slide 28: Strategic Investment Plans
-28- STRATEGIC INVESTMENT PLANS
Slide 29: TOP Galaxy: Strategic Direction 2017-2022
-29- TOP Galaxy: Strategic Direction 2017-2022 Vision: A Leading fully integrated refining and petrochemical company in Asia Pacific Vision Top quartile TOP ROIC & Measurement NP Growth Diversified business DJSI 2022 performer OpEx Competitive Long Term High Improvement Growth Performance - Clean Fu
Slide 30: Strategic Investment Plan Approved by Board of Directors
Updated CAPEX plan -Use only for KM Session- -30- Strategic Investment Plan Approved by Board of Directors CAPEX Plan (Unit US$ million) Planned capital investment Project 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Reliability, Efficiency and Flexibility Improvement 44 19 3 Infrastructure Improvement - Lorry Expansio
Slide 31: Clean Fuel Project (CFP): Rationale & Timeline
CFP -Use only for KM Session- -31- Clean Fuel Project (CFP) : Rationale & Timeline Project Rationale • Risk of losing competitiveness to others regional refineries as more new refineries with higher capacity and more advanced technologies are on stream. • Adjust product portfolio by producing high d
Slide 32: Scope of CFP & Technical Aspect
CFP -32- Scope of CFP & Technical Aspect LPG Tops ISOM SRU Sulfur 5 Naphtha HDT-3 CCR-1/2 Platformate PX/BZ TPX HDT-4 Hy. Naph CDU-3 4 180 kbd Crude LPG LPG Kerosene Tops KMT-1/2 Lt.Naph 400 kbd Isomerate Gasoline New HDS-2/3 CDU-4 Diesel Jet/Kero 220 kbd HDS-4 Diesel 4 HMU-1/2&PSA- 2 1/3 Fuel Oil H
Slide 33: CFP Competitiveness
CFP -33- CFP Competitiveness Without CFP With CFP CDU Capacity CDU Capacity 275,000 bbl per day 400,000 bbl per day Upgrading Ratio 28 % Upgrading Ratio 50% (upgrading capacity(1) over CDU capacity) (upgrading capacity(2) over CDU capacity) Power Plant 250 MW Remark : (1) including HCU 1/2, FCCU, TC
Slide 34: CFP Value Proposition
CFP -34- CFP Value Proposition Flexibility of crude intake Product Upgrading Light Distillate 25% (LPG, Light naphtha, Heavy naphtha, Light Crude Gasoline) 40% - 50% (API > 31) 23% 5% - 15% Medium Crude Middle Distillate (25 < API < 31) 62% (Jet , Gasoil) 100% 53% 40% - 50% Heavy Crude (API < 25) 17
Slide 35: Q4-18 Market Outlook
Q4-18 MARKET OUTLOOK • Crude Oil • Petroleum Products • Aromatics • Base Oil & Bitumen • Linear Alkyl Benzene (LAB)
Slide 36: Crude Oil
CRUDE OIL
Slide 37: Firm Economic Outlook
Economy -37- Global Economic Outlook Firm Economic Outlook with GDP to grow by 3.9 percent in 2018 and 2019 Growth China India Thailand (%YoY) US EU World 2018 2019 2020-23 ASEAN-5 Column1 Apr-18(1) Apr-18(1) Apr-18(1) 12% US 2.9% 2.7% 1.6% 8% EU 2.2% 1.9% 1.5% 4% China 6.6% 6.4% 5.9% India 7.3% 7.5
Slide 38: Global Oil Demand Growth Projection
Crude Oil -38- Global Oil Demand Growth Projection IEA forecasts global oil demand to grow by 1.4 MBD in 2018 North America Europe FSU Unit: KBD 340 340 90 2017 80 110 60 50 90 160 2018 2019 Middle East Asia Latin America 100 50 60 980 50 820 810 Africa -20 -40 110 40 20 Demand Growth IEA (MBD) (MBD
Slide 39: Non-OPEC Supply Growth Projection
Crude Oil -39- Non-OPEC Supply Growth Projection IEA estimated Non-OPEC supply growth to grow by 2.0 MBD in 2018 North America Europe FSU Unit: KBD 1800 1400 -70 -60 200 200 2017 -110 100 2018 800 2019 Middle East 100 Latin America Asia 400 -100 -100 Africa -100 100 100 100 -200 0 -300 Non OPEC Grow
Slide 40: Recovering Oil Prices Driven by Strong Fundamentals and Geopolitical Risks
Crude Oil -40- Recovering Oil Prices Driven by Strong Fundamentals and Concern about Rising Geopolitical Risks Dubai Price Movement $/BBL Keystone & 2 Tight Supply Case: 100 Forties Pipeline Escalating Only China Imports OPEC-led Cut OPEC-led Cut leakage U.S. Re-imposed US-China Trade War Iranian Cr
Slide 41: Slightly Deficit Oil Market on Limited Supply and Solid Demand
Crude Oil -41- 1 Slightly Deficit Oil Market on Limited Supply and Solid Demand A Lower Supply from Iran Offsetting OPEC Increase B Solid Demand from Strong Global Economy MBD OPEC & Non-OPEC Supply Cuts Global Demand Growth by Region (YoY) MBD 3.0 2.0 Q2-18 Q3-18 Q4-18 1.54 1.5 2.0 0.93 1.0 1.0 0.5
Slide 42: Escalating Geopolitical Risks to Drive Deeper Market Deficit
Crude Oil -42- 2 Escalating Geopolitical Risks to Drive Deeper Market Deficit A U.S. Hard Stance Halt Iran’s Crude Oil Exports B Economic Uncertainty Weighs on Crude Outputs Iran’s Crude Oil Production Venezuela’s Crude Oil Production MBD MBD 4.0 3.0 2.5 3.5 2.0 3.0 -0.6 MBD -0.1 MBD (vs. Q3’18) 1.5
Slide 43: Petroleum Products
PETROLEUM PRODUCTS
Slide 44: Recovering Refining Margins Supported by Strong Middle Distillate
Refinery -44- Recovering Refining Margins Supported by Strong Middle Distillate and Tighter Supply Singapore Cracking GRM ($/BBL) 8.5 8.0 8.2 7.9 7.6 7.7 6.7 7.2 7.1 7.0 6.1 6.2 6.5 6.4 6.0 6.1 5.0 5.2 5.4 Q1-15 Q2-15 Q3-15 Q4-15 Y2015 Q1-16 Q2-16 Q3-16 Q4-16 Y2016 Q1-17 Q2-17 Q3-17 Q4-17 Y2017 Q1-1
Slide 45: Steady Gasoline from Limited Supply and Stable Chinese Exports
Refinery -45- 1 Steady Gasoline from Limited Supply and Stable Chinese Exports A Limited Supplies on High Refinery Maintenance D B Stable Chinese Exports on Limited Quota Global Refinery Maintenance Chinese Gasoline Export MBD CDU Loss Million Barrels Aug’18 : Force majeure Quota 2018 : 103.1 MBBL 1
Slide 46: Strong Middle Distillate Cracks from Solid Demand and Low Inventories
Refinery -46- 2 Strong Middle Distillate Cracks from Solid Demand and Low Inventories A Strong Demand Drives Lower Surplus B Firm Demand Pushes Inventory to below 5-Year Asia Pacific Middle Distillate Demand U.S/ARA/SING Middle Distillate Inventories MBD MBBL Q4’18 : 12.3 MBD (+0.68 MBD QoQ) 220 13.
Slide 47: Tight Refinery Market due to Demand Growth Outpacing Supply Addition
Refinery -47- Tight Refinery Market due to Demand Growth Outpacing 3 Supply Addition Asia Pacific and Middle East Effective CDU Addition VS Additional Demand AP & ME Demand Growth Middle East China Other AP Japan India Vietnam Teapot Thailand Net Addition Operating Rate [RHS] KBD Operating Rate, % 3
Slide 48: Thailand Oil Demand Growth
Domestic -48- Thailand Oil Demand Growth Thailand Oil Demand Growth (B) (B) 6M/18(B) Y2018F(C) Year on Year Y2016 Y2017 VS 6M/17 VS 2017 Mogas (A) +9.8% +3.7% +3.6% +3.6% Jet/Kero +6.8% +4.4% +7.8% +6.3% Diesel (A) +3.1% +2.9% +2.0% +2.6% Total +5.4% +3.4% +3.4% +3.5% GDP +3.2% +3.9%(D) +4.8%(E) +4.
Slide 49: Aromatics
AROMATICS
Slide 50: Stable PX and BZ Markets Supported by Uncertainty of New Supply
Aromatics -50- Stable PX and BZ Markets Supported by Uncertainty of New Supply Aromatics Market PX CFR Taiwan-ULG95 ($/TON) BZ FOB Korea-ULG95 ($/TON) 541 343 450 245 231 332 315 341 225 317 313 304 195 212 280 273 258 260 276 268 156 138 174 185 163 126 126 68 Y2016 Y2017 Q4TD-18* Q2-16 Q1-16 Q3-16
Slide 51: Firm PX Market due to New Supply Uncertainty
Aromatics -51- Firm PX Market due to New Supply Uncertainty amid Good 1 Downstream Demand A Some Capacity Uncertainty May Cause Tight Supply B Higher Asian PX M/T than PTA to Support Market in Q4 AP/ME Effective PX Capacity Addition Asian PX&PTA Plant Maintenance MTON KTON PX PetroRabigh S Korea’s H
Slide 52: AP/ME PX Balance
Aromatics -52- AP/ME PX Balance AP/ME PX Supply Demand Balance 2010-2017 (CAGR) 2018 (CAGR) 2019-2022 (CAGR) Mil TON Cap: 5.9% Cap: 3.5% Cap: 8.2% Operating Rate Dem: 6.1% Dem: 9.4% Dem: 3.7% 70 90% 60 50 57.5 60.0 80% 51.3 40 43.0 44.5 47.5 44.0 46.2 40.6 41.2 40.2 41.4 42.7 70% 30 37.8 36.7 33.3 3
Slide 53: Stable-to-Soft BZ Market on Supply Surplus
Aromatics -53- Stable-to-Soft BZ Market on Supply Surplus along with PX 2 Production while Chinese Import is Thin A Some Capacity Uncertainty May Cause Tight Supply B C 5-year Record high PX spread Causes Expect Rising SM Operating Rate after Seasonal M/T Surplus BZ Production AP/ME Effective BZ Cap
Slide 54: AP/ME BZ Balance
Aromatics -54- AP/ME BZ Balance AP/ME BZ Supply Demand Balance 2010-2017 (CAGR) 2018 2019-2022 (CAGR) Cap: 3.2% Cap: 2.6% Cap: 5.0% Mil TON Dem: 3.7% Dem: 5.7% Dem: 3.8% Operating Rate 50 90% 46.1 47.4 40 40.0 41.0 42.7 80% 37.2 37.7 39.0 36.8 30 32.9 32.8 34.5 32.4 33.7 34.8 31.2 29.9 31.1 70% 26.9
Slide 55: Base Oil & Bitumen
BASE OIL & BITUMEN
Slide 56: Softer Base Oil Market due to New Additional Supply
Base Oil & Bitumen -56- Softer Base Oil Market due to New Additional Supply 500SN – HSFO ($/TON) 1 AP Base Oil Effective Capacity Addition 556 528 512 482 427 409 443 451 458 498 417 Mil TON Group 1 Group 2 Group 3 Net Capacity 367 412 344 1.5 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.6 Y2016 Y2017 Q4TD-18* Q1-18 Q3-18 Q1-16 Q
Slide 57: Stable Bitumen Market on Recovering Demand
Base Oil & Bitumen -57- Stable Bitumen Market on Recovering Demand Bitumen-HSFO ($/TON) 1 Recovering Import Demand from Major Importers KTON/MONTH KTON/MONTH -7 -13 200 India 200 Vietnam -48 -61 -49 -38 -29 -45 -31 -41 -56 -67 -56 -80 100 100 Y2016 Q3-17 Y2017 Q4TD-18* Q1-16 Q2-16 Q3-16 Q4-16 Q1-17
Slide 58: Linear Alkyl Benzene (LAB)
Linear Alkyl Benzene (LAB)
Slide 59: Slightly Improving LAB Market on Better Demand
LAB -59- Slightly Improving LAB Market on Better Demand LAB Market LAB Spread** ($/TON) AP/ME Effective Maintenance/Closure* KTA 635 627 619 606 603 120 543 539 534 522 550 529 566 562 530 100 80 60 40 20 0 Y2016 Y2017 Q4TD-18* Q1-16 Q2-16 Q3-16 Q4-16 Q1-17 Q2-17 Q3-17 Q4-17 Q1-18 Q2-18 Q3-18 Q1-18
Slide 60: Conclusion
CONCLUSION
Slide 61: Q4-18 Market Outlook Conclusion
Conclusion -61- Q4-18 Market Outlook Conclusion (vs. Q3-18) Crude Oil Recovering Oil Prices Driven by Strong Fundamentals and Concern about Rising Geopolitical Risks Recovering Refining Margins Supported by Strong Middle Refinery Distillate and Tighter Supply Stable PX and BZ Markets Supported by Un
Slide 62: Thank You
-62- Thank You Any queries, please contact: at email: [email protected] Tel: 662-797-2999 / 662-797-2961 Fax: 662-797-2976
Slide 63: Appendix
-63- APPENDIX • Q2/18 Performance analysis • CDU Addition VS Additional Demand – AP & ME • World GRM / Inventories • Thailand petroleum demand by products
Slide 64: Q2/18: Softer Market GRM pressured by Weaker Product Spread
Refining -64- Q2/18: Soften Mkt GRM pressured by Weaken Product Spread while Rising Crude Price led to Inventory Gain Dubai Crude Price & Key Petroleum Product Spreads Refinery Utilization 2017 2018 2017 Q1/18 Q2/18 1H/18 $/bbl Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 1H Q3 FY17 113% 108% 110% DUBAI (DB) 53.1 49.8 50.5 59
Slide 65: Q2/18: Softer Aromatics Contribution pressured by Lower PX and BZ Spread
Aromatics/LAB -65- Q2/18: Soften Aromatics Contribution pressured by Lower PX and BZ spread Aromatics Spreads and Margins Aromatics Production 2017 2018 2017 Q1/18 Q2/18 1H/18 $/ton Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 1H Q3 FY17 90% 84% 87% PX**-ULG95 312 273 258 260 304 268 286 450 276 Q2/18 Market BZ**-ULG95 346 22
Slide 66: Q2/18: Stable Contribution as Slightly Softer Lube Base & Bitumen Spread
Lube Base Oil -66- Q2/18: Stable Contribution as Slightly Soften Lube Base & Bitumen Spread Base Oil & Bitumen Spreads & Margins Base oil Production 2017 2018 2017 Q1/18 Q2/18 1H/18 $/ton Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 1H Q3 FY17 89% 89% 89% 500SN-HSFO 451 556 528 458 512 481 497 417 528 % Base Oil & Specialty S
Slide 67: Q2/18 Power Sector Performance
Power -67- Q2/18 Power Sector Performance…Growing Contribution to the Group Power Business Sector Equity holding in SPP *** [74%] [100%] Power & Steam Sales ***TOP shareholding 24.29% (8.91% via TOP and 20.79% via TP) GPSC is an associate company of TOP. Electricity (1) 2,504 Equity method is applie
Slide 68: Beauty of Integration…Sustainable GIM
Performance Breakdown -68- Beauty of Integration…Sustainable GIM (Unit: US$/bbl) 13.0 14.3 16.4 14.4 Product to Feed 12.8 12.4 11.9 11.0 12.2 11.6 Q1/16 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/17 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/18 Q2 6.1 6.0 6.5 6.1 8.1 5.7 4.4 4.3 5.7 4.0 Crude Marketing GRM (excluded stock gain / loss) Q1/16 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/17 Q2 Q
Slide 69: Q2/18: Performance Breakdown by Business Unit
Performance Breakdown -69- Q2/18: Performance Breakdown by Business Unit Utilization/Production (%) & Net Profit (million THB) Key Points • Refinery: lower run rate due to planned MTA CDU 1 (50 kbd) during May-Jun’18 • Aromatic/LAB: lower contribution mainly from weaken product spread due to new PX
Slide 70: Q2/18 TOP Group Consolidated P&L
Financial -70- Q2/18 TOP Group Consolidated P&L QoQ analysis (Unit : MB) Q2/18 Q1/18 QoQ+/(-) Q2/17 YoY+/(-) 6M/18 6M/17 YoY+/(-) 5,093 (A) A Increase overall product Sales Revenue 96,710 91,617 80,053 16,657 188,328 167,649 20,679 prices following crude oil Hedging gain/(loss) 70 102 (32) 36 34 172
Slide 71: Q2/18 TOP Group Consolidated Cash Flow
Financial -71- Q2/18 TOP Group Consolidated Cash Flow (Unit: Million THB) (Unit: Million THB) Investments Operating Cash Flow 6M/18 6M/17 6M/18 6M/17 Investments 9,606 (12,664) Operating Cash Flow 11,184 15,895 Dividend income 568 491 Net income & non-cash adj. 17,666 16,309 + ST investments 10,420
Slide 72: Asia Pacific and Middle East Refinery Addition
-72- Refinery Asia Pacific and Middle East Refinery Addition AP & ME Demand Growth Middle East China Other AP Start-up Nameplate Country Company Japan India period) (KBD) Vietnam Teapot (Aug’18 > Feb’18) Bandar Abbas - PGSOC/1 Net Addition Q1-18 Iran 120 (Phase 2) KBD Q3-18 China (Mar’18 > Jul’18) 1
Slide 73: Asian Margin Vs. US-EU Margin
World GRM -73- Asian Margin Vs. US-EU margin $/BBL SINGAPORE GRM EU - US Margins $/BBL 12 10 40 8 30 6 20 4 2 10 0 0 -2 -10 -4 Apr-15 Jul-15 Apr-16 Jul-16 Apr-17 Jul-17 Apr-18 Jul-18 Jan-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-15 Jul-15 Apr-16 Jul-16 Apr-17 Jul-17 Apr-18 Jul-18 Jan-15 Oct-1
Slide 74: Global Crude Oil Inventories
Inventories -74- Global Crude Oil Inventories U.S. Crude Stocks (excl. SPR) Crude Oil, Cushing, Oklahoma MBBL MBBL Source : EIA Source : EIA 600 80 550 70 500 60 50 450 40 400 30 350 20 300 10 250 0 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 5yr-range 2018 2017 avg 13-16
Slide 75: Global Gasoline Inventories
Inventories -75- Global Gasoline Inventories U.S. Gasoline Stocks Singapore Gasoline Stocks MBBL MBBL Source : EIA Source : IE Singapore 280 20 260 240 10 220 200 180 0 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 5yr-range 2018 2017 avg 12-16 5yr-range 2018 2017 avg 12-16
Slide 76: Global Middle Distillate Inventories
Inventories -76- Global Middle Distillate Inventories U.S. Diesel Stocks Singapore Middle Distillate Stocks MBBL MBBL Source : EIA Source : IE Singapore 180 20 160 140 10 120 100 80 0 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 5yr-range 2018 2017 avg 13-17 5yr-range 2018
Slide 77: Global Fuel Oil Inventories
Inventories -77- Global Fuel Oil Inventories U.S. Residual Fuel Oil Stocks Singapore Residual Fuel Oil Stocks MBBL MBBL Source : EIA Source : IE Singapore 50 40 30 40 20 30 10 20 0 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 5yr-range 2018 2017 avg 13-17 5yr-range 2018 20
Slide 78: China's Refined Product Exports
China Export -78- China’s Refined Product Exports KBD China’s Gasoline Exports KBD China’s Gasoil Exports Source : China Custom Source : China Custom 500 600 400 500 400 300 300 200 200 100 100 0 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2015 2
Slide 79: Domestic LPG Demand
Thailand petroleum demand by products -79- Domestic LPG Demand Thailand LPG Demand LPG Demand Highlight KT/Day 2018 2015 2016 2017 • In H1/2018, LPG demand jumped by 7.1% YoY 20 on the back of 25.5% YoY higher demand from 18.1 petrochemical sector, as a result of higher 17.5 17.8 17.8 18.0 substitut
Slide 80: Domestic Gasoline/Gasohol Demand
Thailand petroleum demand by products -80- Domestic Gasoline/Gasohol Demand Thailand Gasoline/Gasohol Demand GASOLINE/Gasohol Demand Highlight MML/Day 2018 2015 2016 2017 • In H2/2018, Mogas demand rose moderately by 34 3.6% YoY to an average 30.9 ML/day. Although, 31.5 31.7 the retail price of Moga
Slide 81: Domestic Jet Demand
Thailand petroleum demand by products -81- Domestic Jet Demand Thailand JET Demand JET Demand Highlight MML/Day 2018 2015 2016 2017 • In H2/2018, Jet consumption increased 21.6 22 21.0 21.2 significantly by 7.8% over the corresponding 19.7 period last year mainly owning to booming 20 tourism industr
Slide 82: Domestic Gasoil and NGV Demand
Thailand petroleum demand by products -82- Domestic Gasoil and NGV Demand Thailand Gasoil Demand Diesel Demand Highlight MML/Day 2018 2015 2016 2017 • In H2/2018, Diesel demand rose moderately by 72 69.7 70.2 2.0% YoY as a result of higher growth of Thai 70 economic recovery, according to higher 68
Slide 83: Domestic Fuel Oil Demand
Thailand petroleum demand by products -83- Domestic Fuel Oil Demand Thailand Fuel Oil Demand Fuel Oil Demand Highlight MML/Day 2018 2015 2016 2017 • In H2/2018, Fuel Oil consumption rose slightly 10 by 0.2%YoY, as a result of 12.2% YoY higher demand from transportation sector which takes 8 approxima
Slide 84: Thank You
-84- Thank You Any queries, please contact: at email: [email protected] Tel: 662-797-2999 / 662-797-2961 Fax: 662-797-2976
Thai Oil Public Company — Investor Presentation (October 2018) on 6ix