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Swiss Re — SRI-CorSo Annual Forum Shanghai (May 2019)
20 slides from Swiss Re's conference presentation, May 14, 2019
Slide 1: Belt & Road Initiative: High time to act
Belt & Road Initiative: High time to act Dr. Jerome Jean Haegeli Group Chief Economist 14 May 2019, Shanghai
Slide 2: Today, Tomorrow and What Is Key
Today, Tomorrow and What Is Key… R - R -R Reflation with Central Bank and Fiscal Stimulus Recession fears? Resilience Swiss Re Institute – Corporate Solutions | Dr Jerome Jean Haegeli 2
Slide 3: Global economic outlook
Global economic outlook Swiss Re Institute – Corporate Solutions | Dr Jerome Jean Haegeli 3
Slide 4: Years After The Global Financial Crisis… The World Is Less Resilient
10 Years After The Global Financial Crisis… The World Is Less Resilient High debt Negative yielding Lower economic burden sovereign bonds growth +70trn 10trn -2%pts Sources: IIF, IMF, Swiss Re Institute; global figures Swiss Re Institute – Corporate Solutions | Dr Jerome Jean Haegeli 4
Slide 5: The Three Ps Key To Watch For 2019 And Beyond
The Three Ps Key To Watch For 2019 And Beyond Prices Policies Politics 2020: High US recession risk at 35% Swiss Re Institute – Corporate Solutions | Dr Jerome Jean Haegeli 5
Slide 6: Economic Outlook: EM - The Place To Be
Economic Outlook: EM - The Place To Be Emerging Markets will continue grow China has overtaken the US significantly faster than Developed Markets and contributes more to global GDP (PPP) United States: Euro area: 2.5% 1.2% 2018 Real GDP growth in 2019 China: 6.3% USA 2008 China 1998 EM Asia excl. La
Slide 7: Reforms Key Also In China Given High Debt Ratio
Reforms Key Also In China Given High Debt Ratio And Potential Current Account Deficit Share of debt as % of GDP by sector Current Account by component ($ bn) USD 300 600 250 400 200 200 150 0 100 -200 50 -400 0 -600 2001 2006 2014 1999 2000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2015
Slide 8: Belt and Road Opportunities
Belt and Road Opportunities Swiss Re Institute – Corporate Solutions | Dr Jerome Jean Haegeli 8
Slide 9: Infrastructure Investment Provides Enormous Opportunities
Infrastructure Investment Provides Enormous Opportunities 65 and 2/3 countries and world population affected by BRI 6.4 trn Estimated infrastructure investments in BRI countries 34 bn Premium potential from construction activities Source: Swiss Re Institute Swiss Re Institute – Corporate Solutions |
Slide 10: As Long-term Investors Re/insurers Help Close The Global Infrastructure Gap
As Long-term Investors Re/insurers Help Close The Global Infrastructure Gap Infrastructure financing needs until 2030: USD 40trn Advanced economy debt to GDP ratio: 111% Long-term investor asset base: USD 80trn Capital market share of global ~10-20% infrastructure debt financing: Source: McKinsey, O
Slide 11: The Challenges: Think Global, Act Local - Our Call For Action
The Challenges: Think Global, Act Local Our Call For Action • Strengthen private capital market solutions, lower barriers for long-term investors • Encourage Public Private Partnerships (PPP) • Leverage Multilateral Development Banks’ balance sheets • Promote sustainable investing • “Best practice”
Slide 12: Key takeaways
Key takeaways Swiss Re Institute – Corporate Solutions | Dr Jerome Jean Haegeli 12
Slide 13: Key Takeaways
Key Takeaways • The global economy is less resilient than 10y ago • The economic shift from West to East continues • BRI offers enormous opportunities for economic growth and to strengthen resilience • Insurance and economic reforms are key recipe to China’s and global economic resilience Swiss Re I
Slide 14: Appendix
Appendix Swiss Re Institute – Corporate Solutions | Dr Jerome Jean Haegeli 14
Slide 15: Cross-border infrastructure projects are exposed to a multitude of risks
Cross-border infrastructure projects are exposed to a multitude of risks Political Political risks pose a major threat to B&R projects outside China • Geopolitical and territorial disputes • Displacement and social unrest • Concerns about control Economic Operational • Vulnerability to external risk
Slide 16: BRI will boost development along the road and sea routes
BRI will boost development in countries along the “road” and “sea“ routes Stylized view of the benefits of B&R Swiss Re Institute – Corporate Solutions | Dr Jerome Jean Haegeli 16
Slide 17: Protection Gaps Remain Large For BRI Participant Countries/Markets
Protection Gaps Remain Large For BRI Participant Countries/Markets Protection gaps in USD bn 36 33 43 26 27 4 178 0 2 Europe North America Total: 100bn Total: 69bn 69 44 13 NA 15 5 Asia Pacific 5 Total: 304bn Mortality 11 10 3 4 Property cat MEA Latin America Total: 25bn Property non cat Total: 28bn
Slide 18: Overview of Swiss Re's macro forecasts
Overview of Swiss Re’s macro forecasts US 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020 Euro Area 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020 Real GDP (% change) CPI (% change) Real GDP (% change) CPI (% change) Swiss Re Institute 2.9 2.5 ↑ 1.8 ↑ 2.4 1.9 2.3 Swiss Re Institute 1.8 1.2 1.2 1.7 1.3 1.5 Consensus 2.4 2 1.9 2.2 Cons
Slide 19: Swiss Re Institute – Corporate Solutions | Dr Jerome Jean Haegeli
Swiss Re Institute – Corporate Solutions | Dr Jerome Jean Haegeli 19
Slide 20: Legal notice
Legal notice ©2019 Swiss Re. All rights reserved. You are not permitted to create any modifications or derivative works of this presentation or to use it for commercial or other public purposes without the prior written permission of Swiss Re. The information and opinions contained in the presentati
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