Marathon Petroleum Corporation · NYSE:MPC
Marathon Petroleum — Investor Presentation (May 2016)
85 slides from Marathon Petroleum's investor presentation, May 2016
Slide 1: Investor Presentation May 2016
Investor Presentation May 2016
Slide 2: Forward-Looking Statements
Forward‐Looking Statements This presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of federal securities laws regarding Marathon Petroleum Corporation ("MPC") and MPLX LP ("MPLX").These forward-looking statements relate to, among other things, expectations, estimates and projections
Slide 3: Our Priorities for Value Creation
Our Priorities for Value Creation Strategic Objective How We Get There Maintain top tier safety and Continued focus on safety and environmental environmental performance stewardship – license to operate Return free cash flow to shareholders through strong Balance capital returns with and growing bas
Slide 4: Balanced Approach to Returning Capital and Investment
Balanced Approach to Returning Capital and Investment Investing in the Since July 2011 Business* $7.3 B returned to shareholders through repurchases, representing 28% of shares outstanding $9.7 B Five dividend increases resulting $14.6 B in a 28% CAGR Strategic investments providing Capital Re
Slide 5: Fundamentals of MPC's Business
Fundamentals of MPC’s Business Strategically located assets and fully integrated system provides optionality and flexibility Gasoline demand continues to be strong Peer leading alkylation and reforming capacity Supply dynamics support resilient crack spreads U.S. refiners have a sustained
Slide 6: Refining: Enhancing Margins Through Process Efficiency
Refining Enhancing Margins Through Process Efficiency Increasing EBITDA through process improvements Completed light crude upgrade project at Robinson Optimizing Galveston Bay and Texas City operations Increasing distillate yield and conversion capacity Growing refined product export capac
Slide 7: Margin Improvement
Refining Increasing EBITDA Through Continuous Process Improvements Low or no investment projects Refining Process Improvements* 1,000 Focus on technical excellence 800 Margin Improvement Improvements in process unit 600 $MM performance 400 EBITDA improvement 200 of approximately $800 MM sinc
Slide 8: Enhancing Refining Margins
Enhancing Refining Margins Robinson light crude processing project – +30 MBD light crude – $140 MM investment – ~20% ROI, completed 2Q 2016 Galveston Bay export capacity expansion – +30 MBD ULSD • ~30% ROI, mid-2016 est. completion – +115 MBD gasoline • ~20% ROI, 2016-2019 est. completion Gary
Slide 9: Galveston Bay Process Improvements and Synergies
Galveston Bay Process Improvements and Synergies* EBITDA Improvement Process improvements 700 – Unit optimization 600 – Improved unit yields – Bottlenecks removed 500 – Catalyst changes 400 $MM 300 Synergy capture – Crude optimization 200 – Process unit utilization 100 Future improvements 0 20
Slide 10: South Texas Asset Repositioning (STAR) Program
South Texas Asset Repositioning (STAR) Program Creating a World-Class Refining Complex Investment ~$2.0 B of total investment 2,000 – IRR 26% 270 1,500 Increase residual oil (resid) processing 580 $MM – Expand resid hydrocracker 1,000 540 – Improve gas oil recovery 500 315 Revamp crude unit 17
Slide 11: U.S. Refiners have a Sustained Export Advantage
U.S. Refiners have a Sustained Export Advantage Low cost natural gas Large, complex refineries 2015 Region Utilization Access to lower cost feedstocks Rate High utilization rates North America 88% Sophisticated workforce MPC 99% Natural Gas Price Comparison Europe 86% 18 Actual Forecast 16
Slide 12: Reaching Higher-Value Markets
Reaching Higher-Value Markets Increasing Finished Product Export Capacity Export Capacity 600 510 500 115 395 400 365 30 345 320 20 MBD 300 200 100 0 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2019E Base Garyville Galveston Bay 12
Slide 13: Refining Investments Growing EBITDA
Refining Investments Growing EBITDA Investments of $2.9 B contributing approximately $1.2 B EBITDA Refining Growth Investment Incremental EBITDA 800 1,400 1,200 600 1,000 800 $MM $MM 400 600 400 200 200 0 0 Prior to 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2016 S
Slide 14: Peer-leading Alkylation and Reforming Capacity
Peer-leading Alkylation and Reforming Capacity Octane Capacity Expect strong U.S. HFC 85 30 32 (31%) Reforming Isomerization summer octane values BP 135 45 33 (30%) Alkylation PBF 148 20 66 (28%) ( ) % of Crude Capacity Octane generation Tesoro 158 39 63 (31%) capacity has been Chevron 202 81 76
Slide 15: Speedway Provides Stable Cash Flows
Speedway Provides Stable Cash Flows Top tier performer in convenience store industry – #1 in EBITDA/store/month vs. public peers Accelerating growth through organic projects – Filling in existing markets – Commercial fueling lane network Continue to accelerate benefits from Speedway’s acquired
Slide 16: Speedway Highlights
Speedway Highlights Over 5 million* Speedy Rewards active members and growing as we attract new members in the markets we serve Continuing to focus on marketing enhancement opportunities at Speedway’s converted locations Completed 76 remodels in Q1 2016, 361 to date at converted locations *12
Slide 17: MPLX Highlights
MPLX Highlights High-quality, strategically located assets with leading midstream position Announced a $1 B private placement of convertible preferred securities with third-party investors, expected to close May 2016 – Expected to fulfill remaining funding requirements for 2016 and into 2017 M
Slide 18: MPLX Operational Highlights
MPLX Operational Highlights Completed 20 MBD expansion of Patoka-to-Robinson crude pipeline in April Began construction of the Cornerstone Pipeline, expected to be in-service late 2016 Commenced operations of 200 MMcf/d processing plant and 10,000 BPD de-ethanization facility at Mobley Complex
Slide 19: Sale of Marine Business to MPLX
Sale of Marine Business to MPLX Fully Integrated Marine Transportation and Service Provider Sale of marine business to MPLX in March 2016 (~$120 MM of annual EBITDA) Annual EBITDA ~$120 MM – Supportive valuation in exchange for MPLX equity – Fee-for-capacity contracts with Barges Boats MPC 205 18
Slide 20: MPLX Enhances MPC's Value
MPLX Enhances MPC’s Value MarkWest Energy merger – Adds scale and diversity to MPC – Adds high quality natural gas and NGL assets in prolific shale regions – Significant commercial synergies and opportunities across value chain Near term support provides long-term value uplift – Cash distributio
Slide 21: MPC's Strong Liquidity and Capitalization
MPC’s Strong Liquidity and Capitalization Committed to maintaining investment grade credit profile and financial flexibility Liquidity and Capitalization As of Operate with prudent leverage and ($MM except ratio data) 3/31/16 Total Debt Outstanding(a) strong liquidity throughout the refining Sto
Slide 22: MPC Consolidated 2016 Revised Capital Outlook
MPC Consolidated 2016 Revised Capital Outlook Announced February 2016 4,500 $4.2 B 4,000 (~$100) 3,500 (~$650) $3.0 B 3,000 (~$400) (~$50) (~$20) $MM 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 2016 Capital Refining & MPLX** Midstream*** Speedway Corporate and 2016 Revised Budget Marketing* Other Capital Outlook
Slide 23: Growing More Stable Cash-Flow Business Segments
Growing More Stable Cash-Flow Business Segments Speedway Corporate 2016 Capital Outlook – $3.0 B & Other 3% MPC – $1.9 B 10% Refining & Marketing, excluding Refining Midstream – $1,045 MM MPLX Sustaining 23% Capital Midstream* – $440 MM 36% Speedway – $310 MM Corporate & Other – $95 MM 13% R
Slide 24: Driving Top Tier Financial Performance Through Sustainable Competitive Advantages
Driving Top Tier Financial Performance Through Sustainable Competitive Advantages Fully integrated system provides optionality and flexibility Strategically located assets Value of MPLX Consistent and reliable operator Sustained performance through all cycles Disciplined, balanced approa
Slide 25: Appendix
Appendix
Slide 26: Fully Integrated Downstream System
Fully Integrated Downstream System Refining and Marketing Seven-plant refining system with ~1.8 MMBPCD capacity One biodiesel facility and interest in three ethanol facilities One of the largest wholesale suppliers in our market area One of the largest producers of asphalt in the U.S. ~5,5
Slide 27: Distillate Leads U.S. Domestic Petroleum Fuels Demand
Distillate Leads U.S. Domestic Petroleum Fuels Demand Compounded 10 Actual Forecast Annual Gasoline demand Growth Rates 9 Gasoline 2015 vs. 2030 declines due to corporate 8 average fuel economy Gasoline ex ethanol -1.1% 7 -1.1% (CAFE) standards despite 6 increased travel MMBD 5 Distillate +1.4%
Slide 28: Distillate Leading World Liquids Demand
Distillate Leading World Liquids Demand Annual Average 120 Volumetric Growth (MBD) Actual Forecast 2015 vs. 2025 Average product 100 demand growth +445 80 of 1.6 MMBD in Other 2016-2017 -19 MMBD 60 Resid Distillate remains +623 the growth leader 40 Middle Distillate through 2025 20 Heavy fuel
Slide 29: Distillate Fundamentals Strong Long Term
Distillate Fundamentals Strong Long Term Current market conditions for distillate – Contango in crude oil markets encouraged producing and storing diesel – Mild 2015-2016 winter and slower than expected global economic growth has weighed on demand – Strong gasoline crack spreads last summer offset
Slide 30: Shale Crudes Strengthen Octane Market
Shale Crudes Strengthen Octane Market Expect strong U.S. summer octane values Lighter crude runs produce more light naphtha, increasing demand for octane Shale crudes yield a lower quality reformer feed Octane generation capacity has been relatively steady, incremental capacity required in t
Slide 31: North American Crude Production
North American Crude Production 16 Actual Forecast 14 Shale production challenged in 12 current price environment Canada 10 Drilling improvements and efficiency gains have lessened MMBD 8 U.S. Shale near-term declines 6 4 Long-term production growth is 2 still expected U.S. Non-Shale 0 2010 20
Slide 32: U.S. Natural Gas Production Growth Largely from Shale
U.S. Natural Gas Production Growth Largely from Shale 18 Actual Forecast 16 U.S. natural gas supply to grow by 3.3 MMBOED 14 (18 BCFD) by 2030 12 2015 production was MMBOED 10 Shale Gas 336 MBOED (1.8 BCFD) above forecast 8 Lower global LNG prices 6 Tight Gas pose a challenge for new 4 U.S. LN
Slide 33: U.S. NGL Volume Growth Creates a Need for Incremental Infrastructure
U.S. NGL Volume Growth Creates a Need for Incremental Infrastructure 7 Gulf Coast ethylene Actual Forecast crackers are being built, 6 adding 700 MBD to demand for ethane by 2021 5 Realized ethane production Purity Ethane increases from 2016-2020 4 MMBD as rejection tapers off due to 3 increased
Slide 34: U.S. Natural Gas and NGL Trade Flows Changing
U.S. Natural Gas and NGL Trade Flows Changing Paradigm shift from U.S. Northeast being a significant importer to a significant exporter Driven by Marcellus and Utica production growth Infrastructure continuing to build out to reflect changes in trade flows 34
Slide 35: U.S./Canada Key Existing and Planned Pipelines
U.S./Canada Key Existing and Planned Pipelines In-Service Planned Pipelines MBPD Date Grand Mesa 130 2016 Saddlehorn 190 2016 Bayou Bridge (Lake Charles to St. James) TBD* 2017 Diamond 200 2017 Dakota Access 450 2017 ETCO 450 2017 Midland to Sealy 300 2018 Sandpiper (to Superior) 225 2019 Sandpiper
Slide 36: Returning Capital to Shareholders Through Share Repurchases
Returning Capital to Shareholders Through Share Repurchases 8,000 Cumulative Share Repurchases Since July 2011 $10 B share 6,000 repurchases authorized $7.31 B returned to shareholders through $MM 4,000 repurchases 2,000 28% of June 30, 2011 shares outstanding 0 repurchased 36
Slide 37: Returning Capital to Shareholders Through Dividends
Returning Capital to Shareholders Through Dividends 0.35 +28% 350 $0.32 0.30 300 +19% 0.25 $0.25 250 +20% $0.21 +40% $/Share 0.20 200 $MM $0.175 $171 $170 $169 $169 +25% $141 $138 $136 $136 0.15 $0.125 $129 $126 $123 $122 150 $119 $116 $116 $113 $0.10 $89 0.10 $87 $85 100 $71 0.05 50 0.00 0 Q3 Q4 Q1
Slide 38: Generating Significant Cash Flow Through All Cycles
Generating Significant Cash Flow Through All Cycles Pro Forma EBITDA Adjusted for Current Configuration Pro Forma EBITDA 10,000 8,000 6,000 $MM 4,000 2,000 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2008 thru 2015 Mid- Refining and Marketing Speedway Cycle Pipeline Transportation Depr. & Amort. less
Slide 39: MPC vs. Peer Companies' Operating Income per Barrel
MPC vs. Peer Companies’ Operating Income per Barrel Operating Income Per Barrel of Crude Throughput** 20 MPC’s Rank 15 Competitor Range 1 2 10 2 5 $/BBL 1 3 6 5 1 3 2 2 7 3 3 3 1 3 2 0 -5 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Companies Ranked* 12 1
Slide 40: Balance in Refining Network
Balance in Refining Network BPCD NCI Canton (Ohio) 93,000 7.8 Catlettsburg (Ky.) 273,000 9.2 Detroit (Mich.) 132,000 9.7 Midwest Capacity 710,000 BPCD Robinson (Ill.) 212,000 10.5 Galveston Bay (Texas) 459,000 13.5 Texas City (Texas) 86,000 7.8 Garyville (La.) 539,000 11.2 Total 1,794,000 10.9* The
Slide 41: Key Strengths
Key Strengths Balanced Operations Crude Oil Refining Capacity Crude Slate PADD II 61% 60% Sour Crude 40% PADD III Sweet Crude 39% As of March 31, 2016 1Q 2016 Assured Sales of Gasoline Production (Speedway + Brand + Wholesale Contract Sales) Assured Sales ~70% ~30% Wholesale and Other Sales 1Q 2016
Slide 42: Galveston Bay-Texas City World-Class Refining Complex
Galveston Bay-Texas City World-Class Refining Complex Integrated Galveston Bay-Texas City Refinery Post-STAR Galveston BPCD Unless Noted Bay* Crude 585,000 Vacuum Distillation 225,200 Residual Hydrocracking 94,300 Coking 29,800 Catalytic Cracking 184,800 Catalytic Reforming 124,300 Catalytic Hydrocr
Slide 43: Producing Higher-Value Products
Producing Higher-Value Products Investments of ~$360 MM contribute ~$130 MM EBITDA Fluid Catalytic Cracking (FCC) projects Increase alkylate and light products Garyville FCC/Alky – 2016 Investment: ~$220 MM IRR 27% Detroit FCC – 2018 Investment: ~$140 MM IRR 26% 43
Slide 44: Capitalizing on Growing U.S. Finished Product Exports
Capitalizing on Growing U.S. Finished Product Exports Gross U.S. Finished Product Exports MPC Finished Product Exports 1,800 350 1,600 300 1,400 250 1,200 1,000 200 MBD MBD 800 150 600 100 400 50 200 0 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Other U.S. MPC Sources: MPC, EIA 44
Slide 45: MPC's Value of Integration
MPC’s Value of Integration 3,500 Crude 3,000 RIN $ Price Decline Flexible refining Distortion system 2,500 Large retail $MM presence 2,000 Extensive logistics with considerable 1,500 optionality 1,000 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 Gross Ma
Slide 46: Speedway: Pursuing Attractive and Accretive Acquisitions
Speedway: Pursuing Attractive and Accretive Acquisitions Leverage MPC’s supply and logistical network – Increase assured sales – Optimize terminal utilization Fill market voids in Speedway footprint – High quality assets – Continue focus in Pennsylvania and Tennessee – Growth opportunities in Ge
Slide 47: Capitalizing on Diesel Demand Growth
Capitalizing on Diesel Demand Growth Trucking remains a dominant mode of transportation U.S. freight volumes expected to increase by 29% Diesel demand growth expected to outpace gasoline Build out commercial fueling lane network – ~150 CFL locations Source: American Trucking Association 47
Slide 48: Following Through on Goals for Acquired Locations
Following Through on Goals for Acquired Locations Earnings Opportunities (Original Guidance) Invest ~$570 MM in conversions, 400 remodels and maintenance 300 45 70 40 $MM Converted stores to Speedway brand 200 35 365 and technology platforms 100 175 0 Remodel approximately 2013 Pro Forma Hess
Slide 49: Focus on Improving Light Product Breakeven
Focus on Improving Light Product Breakeven 13 12.39 11 Each 1.00 cent per gallon improvement = ~$30 MM annual Light Product Breakeven (cpg) 9 pretax earnings Total Expenses – 7 7.13 LPBE = Merchandise Margin Light Product Volume 5 3 Measure of operating efficiency and 2.56 merchandise contribution
Slide 50: Speedway and Hess Side-by-Side Comparison
Speedway and Hess Side-by-Side Comparison Hess(a) Speedway(b) Company Operated Sites 1,255 1,478 Fuel Sales Speedway generates an incremental 198,500 177,400 (gallons/store/month) $17,300 of merchandise margin per Fuel Margin $0.137 $0.144 store per month ($/gallon) ~$250 MM of additional annual
Slide 51: Exceeding Expected Synergies
Exceeding Expected Synergies Synergies and Marketing Enhancements 250 225 200 190 149 155 150 $MM 120 100 75 47 50 20 0 2014E 2014 2015E 2015 2016E 2016E 2017E 2017E Guidance* Speedway Synergies R&M Synergies *Based on original announcement guidance in May 2014 51
Slide 52: MPLX and MPC are Aligned
MPLX and MPC are Aligned MPLX Organizational Structure MPC views MPLX as integral to its Marathon Petroleum operations and is aligned with its Corporation and Affiliates (NYSE: MPC) success and incentivized to grow MPLX 100% interest 23% LP interest Public MPLX owns crude oil, refined product MP
Slide 53: Leveraging Strengths Across the Hydrocarbon Value Chain
Leveraging Strengths Across the Hydrocarbon Value Chain Crude Oil and Refined Products Natural Gas and NGLs Refining Gathering Logistics Processing Fuels Distribution Fractionation Large and growing The right assets, in the drop-down portfolio right place Strong sponsor committed Large organ
Slide 54: MarkWest History
MarkWest History 2002: IPO of MarkWest Energy Partners 2002 - 2006: Rapid growth in Southwest; ~$1 B in acquisitions 2006 marks first No. 1 ranking in customer service 2008: MarkWest Hydrocarbon and MarkWest Energy Partners merge Begins development in Marcellus Shale 2009 - 2011: Forms JV wi
Slide 55: One of the Largest NGL and Natural Gas Midstream Service Providers
One of the Largest NGL and Natural Gas Midstream Service Providers Processing ~75% of Total Rich-Gas Production from the Marcellus and Utica • Ethane Raw Gathering • Propane Natural Gas and Processing Mixed Fractionation NGL • Normal Butane Production Compression Plants NGLs Facilities Products •
Slide 56: MPLX Outlook Supported by Forecasted Volume Growth
MPLX Outlook Supported by Forecasted Volume Growth YoY Gross Gas Production Growth by Region (MMcf/d) 10,000 Assets located in 8,000 prolific Northeast History Forecast shale plays 6,000 Moderated volume 4,000 growth in light of low MMcf/d 2,000 commodity price environment - Quality producer-
Slide 57: The Marcellus/Utica Resource Play is the Leading U.S. Natural Gas Growth Play
The Marcellus/Utica Resource Play is the Leading U.S. Natural Gas Growth Play 65 28 Marcellus & Utica account for over Marcellus & Utica – Billion Cubic Feet per Day Rest of U.S. – Billion Cubic Feet per Day (Bcf/d) 64 20% of total U.S. Gas Supply 63 Marcellus & Utica 23 62 61 18 (Bcf/d) 60 59 13 58
Slide 58: MPLX - Gathering & Processing (Marcellus & Utica)
MPLX - Gathering & Processing Marcellus & Utica Operations Record gas processed of 4.3 Bcf/d Processed Volumes in 1Q 2016, an increase of 9% Average Average Utilization Area Capacity Volume from prior quarter (MMcf/d)(a) (MMcf/d) (%) Facility utilization continues to Marcellus 3,955 3,152 80% in
Slide 59: MPLX - Gathering & Processing (Southwest)
MPLX - Gathering & Processing Southwest Operations Total gas processed over 1 Bcf/d in Processed Volumes 1Q 2016 Average Average Utilization Average facility utilization Area Capacity Volume (%) increased to 82% over first quarter (MMcf/d)(a) (MMcf/d) East Texas 600 508 85% Processed volumes e
Slide 60: MPLX - 2016 Revised Capital Outlook
MPLX - 2016 Revised Capital Outlook Announced February 2016 2,000 $1.7 B 2016 revised capital outlook – Growth $800 MM - $1.2 B 1,500 – Maintenance $61 MM $1.1 B Reduced 2016 midpoint by $MM 1,000 ~$650 MM 500 Continue to optimize growth capital investments and complete projects on a just-in-t
Slide 61: MPLX - 2016 Growth Capital Investment
MPLX - 2016 Growth Capital Investment $800 MM to $1.2 B Gathering & Processing capital includes gathering, processing and 19% fractionation infrastructure in Northeast shales and expansion of Southwest 6% 38% operations Logistics & Storage capital includes Cornerstone Pipeline, Robinson butane 3
Slide 62: MPLX - Gathering & Processing Growth Projects
MPLX - Gathering & Processing Growth Projects HOPEDALE FRACTIONATION COMPLEX (MarkWest & MarkWest Utica EMG shared KEYSTONE COMPLEX fractionation capacity) Bluestone I – III & Sarsen I – 410 MMcf/d – Operational C3+ Fractionation I & II – 120,000 Bbl/d – Operational Butler Bluestone IV – 200 MMcf/d
Slide 63: Midstream Logistics Growth Investment Summary
Midstream Logistics Growth Investment Summary Estimated Estimated ($MM) MPC MPLX Total Annual In-Service EBITDA Sandpiper $1,000 $1,000 $150 2019 Blue Water investment 480(1) 480(1) 55 2015-2016 Cornerstone and Utica Build-out $510 510 80 2016-2017 MPC Feedstock Cost of Supply 55 170 225 35 2017 Imp
Slide 64: MPLX's Robust Portfolio of Organic Growth Capital and Drop-down Opportunities
MPLX’s Robust Portfolio of Organic Growth Capital and Drop-down Investment Opportunities $26 - 32 B to Support Distribution Growth MPC Drop-down Capital (Assumes 8-10x EBITDA multiple) $12 - 15 B L&S Organic Capital through 2018* $0.8 B $7.5 B G&P Organic Capital 2016 to 2020 ($1.5 B annual run-rate
Slide 65: Growing MPC's Drop-down Inventory
Growing MPC’s Drop-down Inventory Provides Visibility to Significant Growth $0 $2 $4 $6 $8 $10 $12 $14 MPC Drop-down Capital (Assumes 8-10x EBITDA multiple) $16 $18 $20 $22 $ $24 12 - 15 B $26 $28 $30 $32 ● ~ 5,400 miles of additional pipelines (owns, leases or has an ownership interest) Pipelines ●
Slide 66: MPLX's Attractive Portfolio of Organic Growth Capital (L&S)
MPLX’s Attractive Portfolio of Organic Growth Capital L&S projects expected to generate ~$125 MM of EBITDA $0 L&S Organic Capital through 2018(1) $2 $4 $6 $8 $10 $12 $14 $16 $18 $20 $22 $24 $ $26 0.8 B $28 $30 $32 Cornerstone and Utica Build-out Pipeline and Tank Farm Expansions Industry solution
Slide 67: MPLX's Attractive Portfolio of Organic Growth Capital (G&P)
MPLX’s Attractive Portfolio of Organic Growth Capital G&P projects expected to generate ~$1 B of EBITDA 7.5 B Southwest Northeast G&P Organic Capital 2016 to 2020 $ ($1.5 B annual run-rate) $0 $2 $4 $6 $8 $10 $12 $14 $16 $18 $20 $22 $24 $26 $28 $30 $32 Organic Growth Opportunities in the Northeast:
Slide 68: Leveraging Premier Positions Across the Value Chain
Leveraging Premier Positions Across the Value Chain with Substantial Incremental Combined Opportunities $0 $2 $4 $6 $8 MPLX/MPC Synergistic Capital $10 $12 $14 $16 $18 $20 $22 $24 $ 6-9B $26 $28 $30 $32 Opportunity Investment 1 Northeast (N.E.) alkylation facility $1.5 - 2.0 B 4 2 $1.0 - 2.0 B 3 N.E
Slide 69: Butane to Alkylate (BTA) Project
Butane to Alkylate (BTA) Project Developing Mt. Belvieu Capabilities in the Northeast $1.5 - $2.0 B Opportunity Enhancing the gasoline blendstock value chain Alkylate is an ideal gasoline blending component that will become increasingly valuable with pending fuel regulations (Tier 3, NAAQS, CAFÉ)
Slide 70: Northeast and Long-Haul NGL Pipeline and Related Infrastructure Development
Northeast and Long-Haul NGL Pipeline and Related Infrastructure Development $1 – 1.5 B in Opportunities 1 NGL/Light Products to East Coast MPLX Northeast - Large-scale East Coast LPG export terminal Operations - Rail/pipeline to East Coast export terminal - Optionality and operational certainty for
Slide 71: Develop Infrastructure to Support the Emerging Rogersville Shale
Develop Infrastructure to Support the Emerging Rogersville Shale and Other Unconventional Northeast Reservoirs Up to $1 B of Opportunities Highly prospective play in West Virginia and Kentucky Strategically positioned to support development Largest processor and fractionator in the southern po
Slide 72: Expanding Dry Gas Gathering in Ohio, Pa., & W.Va.
Expanding Dry Gas Gathering in Ohio, Pa., & W.Va. $500 MM to $1 B of Opportunities The Utica Shale is potentially the most economically viable dry gas play in the U.S. Existing Ohio gathering system is critical for development of the highly productive and economic dry gas Utica acreage New, la
Slide 73: MPLX - Gathering & Processing Contract Structure
MPLX - Gathering & Processing Contract Structure Durable long-term partnerships across leading basins Marcellus Utica Southwest Resource Play Marcellus, Upper Devonian Utica Haynesville, Cotton Valley, Woodford, Anadarko Basin, Granite Wash, Cana-Woodford, Permian, Eagle Ford Producers 14 – includin
Slide 74: MPLX - Logistics & Storage Contract Structure
MPLX - Logistics & Storage Contract Structure Fee-based assets with minimal commodity 2015 Revenue – Customer Mix exposurec 8% MPC has historically accounted for $47 – over 85% of the volumes shipped on MM MPLX’s crude and product pipelines 23% – 100% of the volumes transported via $130 MM MPLX’
Slide 75: MPLX 2016 Forecast
MPLX 2016 Forecast Financial Measure 2016 Forecast Adjusted Net Income(a) $325 MM - $485 MM Adjusted EBITDA $1.25 B - $1.40 B $X,XXX-$X,XXX Distributable Cash Flow $970 MM - $1.10 B $XXX-$XXX Distribution Growth Rate(b) 12% - 15% Growth Capital Expenditures $800 MM - $1.20 B (a) Net income excluding
Slide 76: Opportunity Set for Investment is Expanded
Opportunity Set for Investment is Expanded Multiple Funding Options - Extensive Financial Flexibility MPC Sponsor Support for MPLX Capital Sources Capital Sources Earnings Equity Earnings MLP Distribution Incubate Projects Equity (Units) MLP Proceeds Growth Management Debt Capital Markets • Capacity
Slide 77: Sustaining Core Liquidity Under All Environments
Sustaining Core Liquidity Under All Environments $30/BBL crude price environment 4,000 800 Operating Requirements 3,500 (Non-Discretionary Capex, Interest, 3,000 Taxes, Dividends) 2,500 $MM Unexpected 2,500 Liquidity Needs 4,300 2,000 (Letters of Credit, Operating Upset, Working Capital) 1,500
Slide 78: MPLX's Financial Flexibility to Manage and Grow Asset Base
MPLX’s Financial Flexibility to Manage and Grow Asset Base Committed to maintaining As of ($MM except ratio data) investment grade credit profile 3/31/16 Announced a $1 B private placement Total assets 15,978 of convertible preferred securities Total debt 5,154 with third-party investors, expect
Slide 79: Reconciliations
Reconciliations Speedway Segment Adjusted EBITDA to Segment Income from Operations ($MM) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Speedway Segment Income from Operations 271 310 375 544 673 Plus: Depreciations and Amortization 110 114 112 152 254 Plus: Lower of Cost or Market Inventory Valuation Charge - - - - 25 S
Slide 80: Segment EBITDA Reconciliation to Net Income Attributable to MPC
Segment EBITDA Reconciliation to Net Income Attributable to MPC ($MM) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Net income attributable to MPC 1,215 449 623 2,389 3,389 2,112 2,524 891 826 948 187 Less: Net interest and other financial income (costs) 30 31 12 (26) (109) (179) (216) (81) (6
Slide 81: EBITDA Reconciliation to Net Income for Hess
EBITDA Reconciliation to Net Income for Hess ($MM) 2013* 2017E Net Income 47 138 Less: Net interest and other financial income (costs) (12) - Add: Provision for income taxes 22 78 Add: Total depreciation and amortization 94 149 EBITDA 175 365 *Based on Hess Sept. 30, 2013 Form 10 data annualized 81
Slide 82: MPLX 2016 Forecast Adjusted EBITDA and DCF Reconciliation
MPLX 2016 Forecast – Adjusted EBITDA and Distributable Cash-Flow Reconciliation from Net Income ($MM) Low High Adjusted net income(a) 325 485 Plus: Depreciation and amortization 546 546 Net interest and other financial costs 260 260 Equity investment adjustments 123 123 Other (1) (11) Adjusted EBITD
Slide 83: MPC Annual Price and Margin Sensitivities
MPC Annual Price and Margin Sensitivities Refining and Marketing Segment $MM (After Tax) LLS 6-3-2-1 Crack Spread* Sensitivity ~$450 (per $1.00/barrel change) Sweet/Sour Differential** Sensitivity ~$220 (per $1.00/barrel change) LLS-WTI Spread*** Sensitivity ~$90 (per $1.00/barrel change) Natural Ga
Slide 84: MPC 2Q 2016 Outlook
MPC 2Q 2016 Outlook Other Total Corporate Percent of Turnaround Depreciation Other Crude Charge/ Total Direct and Other WTI-priced and Major and Manufacturing Throughput* Feedstocks Throughput* Operating Unallocated Crude Maintenance Amortization Cost** Throughput* Costs Items*** in MBD Refinery Dir
Slide 85: Market Indicators Used in MPC Project EBITDA Calculations
Market Indicators Used in MPC Project EBITDA Calculations 2016-2020 2016-2020 Average Range REG UNL (USGC; $/GAL)* $2.03 $1.60 - $2.23 ULSD (USGC; $/GAL)* $2.32 $1.89 - $2.52 LLS (St. James, LA; $/BBL) $79.47 $61.80 - $87.43 Natural Gas (Henry Hub, LA; $/MMBtu) $4.27 $3.50 - $5.00 *Prices exclude RI
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