Greggs Plc · LSE:GRG
Greggs — FY2010 Earnings Presentation
27 slides from Greggs's earnings presentation, March 2011
Slide 1: 2010 Preliminary Results
2010 Preliminary Results for the 52 weeks ended 1st January 2011 March 2011
Slide 2: Highlights - 2010
Highlights - 2010 • Record pre-tax profit: up 7.7% to £52.5m • 52 week turnover up 2.1% • Like-for-like sales up 0.2% • Operating margin up 50bps to 7.9% • Diluted EPS up 9.7% to 37.3p • Record shop openings: 68 net new • Record number of refits: 130 • Dividend increased to 18.2p
Slide 3: Richard Hutton, Finance Director
Richard Hutton Finance Director
Slide 4: Group sales and profits
Group sales and profits 2010 2009 change £m £m 0.6%* Sales £662.3 £658.2 Gross margin % 61.9% 61.7% Distribution & selling % 48.6% 48.9% Admin % 5.4% 5.4% Operating profit 52.4 48.4 8.1% Operating margin % 7.9% 7.4% Finance income 0.1 0.4 Profit before taxation 52.5 48.8 7.7% *Total sales growth on
Slide 5: Strong margin progress
Strong margin progress • Operating margin increase to 7.9%: – Supply chain savings as strategy implemented – Improved labour scheduling – Better buying – Reduction in waste – Realising benefits of 2009 restructuring • Margin in 2009 subdued by 0.2% due to 53rd week impact
Slide 6: 2009 plan: supply chain efficiencies
2009 plan: supply chain efficiencies 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 £m £m £m £m £m Bakery closure - - 1.0 1.0 1.0 Modernisation of older sites - 0.5 1.5 1.5 2.0 Drag from new investment - - (0.5) (1.0) (0.5) Greater site productivity 0.5 2.0 3.5 5.5 7.5 (more shops per bakery) 0.5 2.5 5.5 7.0 10.0
Slide 7: Supply chain savings ahead of plan
Supply chain savings ahead of plan £1.4m efficiency in 2010
Slide 8: Earnings and taxation
Earnings and taxation 2010 2009 change Diluted earnings per share 37.3p 34.0p 9.7% Tax charge 27.8% 29.5% • Positive settlement of outstanding capital allowance claims and revaluation of deferred tax liability to 27 per cent • Now expect circa 28% tax charge in 2011, reducing to circa 26% by 2013 if
Slide 9: Capital expenditure £m
Capital expenditure £m E 2011 2010 2009 New shops & resites 12.7 11.9 5.8 Shops refits & equipment 16.7 13.8 12.1 Supply chain capacity 18.1 7.9 2.1 Other expenditure 12.5 12.0 10.3 Total capital expenditure 60.0 45.6 30.3 Number of gross new shops opened c.100 93 49
Slide 10: New shop returns
New shop returns • Target ROC >20% by third year • Ensures return on both retail and supply chain capital • Maturity in 2-3 years, depending on brand awareness • Marketing support in early months to establish sales • Fast (2 year) cash payback on marginal basis
Slide 11: Shop refit returns
Shop refit returns • Target ROC on average 12.5% • Refit capital drives both maintenance & growth requirements • 3 models: – New concept c.£120k – Traditional refit c.£60k – Mini upgrade c.£10k • 135 refits completed in 2010 • Incremental growth targets set to deliver ROC • 2011 focus on new concept
Slide 12: Cash flow and balance sheet
Cash flow and balance sheet • Continued strong cash generation supporting investment for growth and shareholder returns • Net cash at year end £23.8m (2009: £34.6m) • £12.9m return in 2010 via share buybacks (total cash returned in 2010 including dividend £29.9m) • Cash position now appropriate give
Slide 13: 26th year of dividend growth
26th year of dividend growth 2010 2009 Dividend per share 18.2p 16.6p 9.6% Dividend cover 2.0x 2.0x
Slide 14: Financial outlook 2011
Financial outlook 2011 • Rising cost pressure within all major ingredient and energy areas • Work to unlock further efficiencies under way • Extra bank holidays vs. 2010 will impact first half results • Potential one-off charge of c.£1m in H2 relating to closure of Gosforth bakery
Slide 15: Summary
Summary • Record profit in 2010 • Solid margin improvement • Benefits from centralisation starting to accrue • Increased cost control in a low growth environment • Close monitoring of capital to ensure healthy returns
Slide 16: Ken McMeikan, Chief Executive
Ken McMeikan Chief Executive
Slide 17: Delivering Growth – our 5 year plan
Delivering Growth – our 5 year plan • Accelerated expansion & renewal of shops • Increasing supply chain efficiencies • Centrally run business delivering cost benefits • Dedicated teams to identify further cost savings • Growth financed from on-going cash generation • Maintaining strong reputation f
Slide 18: Accelerated growth and renewal
Accelerated growth and renewal • New structures enabling acceleration • Increasing availability of more attractive sites • 30% of new shops where customers work and travel in 2010 • Concept design expanding beyond London
Slide 19: Growth opportunity across the UK
Growth opportunity across the UK • 600+ new shops • 68 net delivered in 2010 • c. 80 net planned for 2011 denotes potential locations
Slide 20: Supply chain efficiencies in 2010
Supply chain efficiencies in 2010 • Further progress in harmonising bakery operations, including: – Consolidation of manufacturing – Automation – Pick by light usage – Transport initiatives
Slide 21: Benefits of centralisation
Benefits of centralisation • More agile and responsive business • Economies of scale • Better buying • Improved central manpower planning • Speed of decision making • National promotions • Reduction in waste • Operational consistency
Slide 22: Further planned changes
Further planned changes • Three major change programmes: – Ranging – Format development – Customer experience • 14 key cross functional projects identified for 2011 – 9 projects focused on top line sales – 5 projects to deliver efficiency savings • Dedicated project leaders
Slide 23: We have a strong value reputation
We have a strong value reputation 14.6m cups sold up 28% in 2010 Value & quality Investment in Exceptional breakfast offer promotions value coffee vs. competitors
Slide 24: Growth opportunities by product category
Breakfast Hot Sandwiches Pizza Coffee Growth opportunities Take home Soup Healthier Options Sweet Bread & rolls
Slide 25: Marketing activity
Marketing activity • In 2010, focused on brand building through ‘Home of Fresh Baking’ campaign • In 2011, focus on tactical campaigns: – radio – newspaper – social media – local shop marketing
Slide 26: Outlook for 2011
Outlook for 2011 • A challenging year ahead • Sales growth from further new shop openings and refits • Planning for marginally positive like-for-like sales • Cost inflation rising higher than anticipated • Tight cost control essential • Value will remain important for UK consumer • Well positioned t
Slide 27: Questions
The home of fresh baking" Questions