Elia Group SA/NV · EURONEXT:ELI
Elia Group SA/NV — Technical Presentation (May 2024)
62 slides from Elia Group SA/NV's technical presentation, May 21, 2024
Slide 1: WG Balancing of May 21st 2024
WG Balancing of May 21st 2024 Hybrid meeting 21/05/2024
Slide 2: For a smooth teleconference with 30+ people
For a smooth teleconference with 30+ people … Some rules apply - Please put yourself on mute at any time that you are not speaking to avoid background noise. - If you receive a call, please ensure that you do not put this meeting on hold. - You can quit and reconnect later on. - You will be muted or
Slide 3: Agenda
Agenda 09:30 – 09:35: Welcome 09:35 – 10:15: Summer Outlook: focus on incompressibility 10:15 – 10:45: EU & BE Balancing Program Update 10:45 – 11:00: Changes to T&C OPA, SA & Coordination Rules following CREG’s decision on iCAROS 11:00 – 11:30: Feedback on public consultation of T&C BSP aFRR and Ba
Slide 4: Minutes of Meeting for approval
Minutes of Meeting for approval Minutes of Meeting of WG Balancing of 27/03/2024 Comments • Suggestion to approve: • The MoM of 27/03/2024 4
Slide 5: Summer Outlook: focus on incompressibility
Summer Outlook: focus on incompressibility Silvio Ferreira & Arnaud Attanasi
Slide 6: Structure of the presentation
Structure of the presentation – Incompressibility Risk – Executive Summary – Challenge A : Summer Outlook – Challenge B : Un-expected deviation close to real-time (cf Incompressibility situation on 07/04/2024) – Context from Day-Ahead – Balancing & Imbalance Price – Imbalance Price Impact, including
Slide 7: Incompressibility Risk – Executive Summary
Incompressibility Risk – Executive Summary 7
Slide 8: Incompressibility Risk – Executive Summary
Incompressibility Risk – Executive Summary The concern about incompressibility follows a combination of two separate challenges: A. Ability of the market to manage well ‘predicted’ situations of high renewable generation. It is related to the ability of market parties to maintain a balanced portfoli
Slide 9: Challenge A – Summer Outlook
Challenge A – Summer Outlook (with updated data from 14/05/2024) 9
Slide 10: Goal: Assessment of export needs / incompressibility risks
Goal: Assessment of export needs / incompressibility risks from April until Sept. Normal Day Sunny and windy Extremely sunny Hypothesis Day and windy day P50 P75 P90 Nuclear Revision + Phase-out Solar P50 (profile) P75 (profile) P90 (profile) Wind P50 (fix) P75 (fix) P90 (fix) RoR P50 (fix) CHP & bi
Slide 11: Lower offtake during the summer months
High-level BE incompressibility risks parameters for summer 2024 (versus 2023) • Increased installed capacity of renewables : 10 GW Solar & 5,5 GW Wind +2,6 GW • Lower Nuclear power plant maintenance this summer • Lower availability of pump storage expected this summer • Lower offtake during the sum
Slide 12: P50 2023 vs 2024
P50 2023 vs 2024 No export need 2023 2024 0 … 4200 export 4 April 16 17 0 0 1 0 0 2 0 0 3 4 0 0 5 0 0 6 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 8 0 0 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 0 706 1589 2278 2528 2313 1985 929 0 673 1556 2245 2496 2282 1954 899 16 17 0 0 18 0 0 19 20 0 0 21 0 0 22 0 0 23 0 0 24 0 0 4200 … 5100 export 18 0 0 0 0 0
Slide 13: P50 2023 vs 2024
P50 2023 vs 2024 2023 2024 7 July 1 2 3 4 1 415 756 899 885 689 100 5 6 7 0 8 0 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 0 743 1312 2229 2718 2549 2740 2172 1675 1003 311 19 20 0 21 0 0 22 0 23 0 24 2 3 4 0 250 377 370 204 0 264 390 384 221 0 260 387 380 217 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 705 1305 2210 2684 2495 2668 2086
Slide 14: P75 2023 vs 2024
P75 2023 vs 2024 No export need 0 … 4200 export 4200 … 5100 export 2023 2024 >5100 export April 4 1 2 3 4 16 923 1254 1370 1289 833 5 6 0 7 0 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 0 526 1972 3176 4252 5038 5480 5072 4455 3399 2175 1081 14 20 21 0 22 0 23 24 0 388 7200 >7000 export 17 886 1217 1334 1255
Slide 15: P75 2023 vs 2024
P75 2023 vs 2024 2023 2024 No export need 7 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 July 1 1827 2167 2310 2297 2101 1512 960 917 1734 2959 3929 4847 5335 5669 5659 5292 4292 3520 2527 1606 949 175 516 983 2 1364 1662 1789 1782 1616 1121 707 766 1653 2921 3923 4827 5301 5615 55
Slide 16: P75 Focus on July
P75 Focus on July Export Need with pump storage Export Need with pump storage & wind offshore curtailment High number of increased export need (all weekends) Structural dependent of export, up to very high levels (8500MW) Presentation title 16
Slide 17: P75 Focus on July – With pump storage
P75 Focus on July – With pump storage (considering planning revisions) Export Need with pump storage Export Need with pump storage & wind offshore curtailment Max value = 7900 MW : In case not enough export possibilities nuclear modulation / wind curtailment / CHP reduction on top of export will be
Slide 18: P75 Focus on July – With pump storage and wind offshore curtailment
P75 Focus on July – With pump storage (considering planning revisions) and wind offshore curtailment Export Need with pump storage Export Need with pump storage & wind offshore curtailment Max value = 7150 MW : In case of underestimation of solar forecast, difficult situation to handle in intraday s
Slide 19: Entso-E Summer Outlook: key trends from TSO inputs
Entso-E Summer Outlook: key trends from TSO inputs (focus BE/FR/NL/DE) compared to 2023 Net Generating Capacity +22 GW of renewables installed: +15 GW Solar +7 GW Wind Planned maintenance of nuclear reactors + 5 – 10 GW of nuclear reactors available during period June – September (mostly FR)
Slide 20: Summer Outlook – Key Take Aways
Summer Outlook – Key Take Aways Higher export needs expected in 2024 than 2023 – Mainly due to solar capacity increase + lower nuclear maintenance and higher pump storage unavailability Given that neighboring countries will face similar issues, it is very uncertain that these level can be accommodat
Slide 21: Challenge B – Unexpected deviation close to real-time
Challenge B – Unexpected deviation close to real-time (cf Incompressibility situation on 07/04/2024) 21
Slide 22: Incompressibility Situation on 07/04/2024: Context from Day-Ahead
Incompressibility Situation on 07/04/2024 Context from Day-Ahead Core Net Position - CWE Hubs 10000 8000 6000 4000 Net Position (MW) 2000 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 -2000 -4000 -6000 -8000 -10000 Hours BE DE FR NL AT • Day-Ahead Price is mostly 0€/MWh for most o
Slide 23: Incompressibility Situation on 07/04/2024: Balancing & Imbalance Price
Incompressibility Situation on 07/04/2024 Balancing & Imbalance Price Prix de déséquilibre 15 min (elia.be) • Very High System Imbalance from 12.00 till 15.30: around 2GW (Max: 2,3GW) – Mainly due to a Forecasting error btw Day-Ahead & Real-Time: 1500MW (high impact of dust from Sahara) - Imbalance
Slide 24: Incompressibility Situation on 07/04/2024: Balancing & Imbalance Price
Incompressibility Situation on 07/04/2024 Balancing & Imbalance Price • Exceptional System Imbalance (2,376GW) • Offshore wind curtailment (around 1GW) • All of the reserve sharing contracts activated in parallel (More than 1GW) – NGESO contracts being unavailable Start of the QH 12:15 12:30 12:45 1
Slide 25: Imbalance Price impact, including Amprion Reserve Sharing
Incompressibility Situation on 07/04/2024 Imbalance Price impact, including Amprion Reserve Sharing • Request by Elia for interTSO of Amprion in QH-12:45 and in the period QH-13:45 until QH-15:15 • The ex-post known activation price obviously leads to updating the imbalance price Published ex-post a
Slide 26: Conclusion
-€ elia Conclusion
Slide 27: Conclusion
Conclusion Starting point - BRP must respect their legal obligations & so must solve the problem in the market (= only efficient & sustainable solution). On the short-term for Summer 2024, Elia - Maintains the High Risk of Incompressibility procedure & updates it by 22/5/2024 (Reminder in annex) - U
Slide 28: Annex: Reminder High Risk Of Incompressibility Procedure
Annex : Reminder High Risk Of Incompressibility Procedure 28
Slide 29: High Risk Of Incompressibility
High Risk Of Incompressibility
Slide 30: EU & BE Balancing Program Update
EU & BE Balancing Program Update Cécile Pellegrin
Slide 31: Agenda of today’s presentation
Agenda of today’s presentation • iCAROS phase 1 & MARI Local go live • aFRR Design Evolutions & Connection to PICASSO => See specific presentation on the “feedbacks of the public consultation of T&C aFRR and Balancing Rules” here after • MARI Connection 31
Slide 32: iCAROS phase 1 & MARI Local go live
iCAROS phase 1 & MARI Local go live See specific presentation on the “changes of T&C OPA, SA & coordination Rules following CREG’s decision on ICAROS” here after 32
Slide 33: iCAROS phase 1 & MARI Local go live
iCAROS phase 1 & MARI Local go live • As of May 8, 2024, the BSP were able to submit mFRR Capacity Bids for a delivery date on May 22, 2024 • As of May 10, 2024, the OPA were able to submit an Outage Plan for a delivery date on May 22, 2024 • As of May 15, 2024, the SA were able to: • Submit a Daily
Slide 34: iCAROS phase 1 & MARI Local go live
iCAROS phase 1 & MARI Local go live • If you want to report an issue(/bug) to ELIA, please use the "Bug Report Template" to ease the process during the Go- Live • A mail on the matter was sent to all BSPs, SAs & OPAs on 16/04 • The template is to be used on the long term (not only during the MARI-iC
Slide 35: MARI Connection
MARI Connection • In December 2023, the consolidated planning for MARI, iCAROS Phase 1 and PICASSO was updated for the go live dates of MARI & ICAROS as follows : • Local go live of the new mFRR bidding and iCAROS phase 1 Mid May 2024 • Connection to EU mFRR balancing energy platform June 2024 • iCA
Slide 36: Contact persons
Contact persons KAM Energy Amandine Leroux / Nicolas Koelman / Sybille Mettens 36
Slide 37: Changes to T&C OPA, SA & Coordination Rules following CREG’s decision on iCAROS
Changes to T&C OPA, SA & Coordination Rules following CREG’s decision on iCAROS Raphaël Dufour
Slide 38: iCAROS phase 1 – CREG decision
iCAROS phase 1 – CREG decision • The CREG has approved the regulated documents in the framework of iCAROS phase 1 (29/02/2024) ➢ T&C OPA in decision B2751 ➢ T&C SA in decision B2750 ➢ Rules for Coordination and Congestion Management in decision B2752 • The CREG has requested the following elements:
Slide 39: T&C OPA
T&C OPA Point of CREG Modifications to the submitted Content decision version • CREG does not approve incentives related to data consistencies as these have • Articles II.10.3 and II.12 have to be considered as administrative penalties for which no legal basis exist in the been removed framework of
Slide 40: T&C SA – Content modifications
T&C SA – Content modifications Point of Modifications to the submitted CREG Content version decision • Settlement for RD activation control: CREG conditions the increase of the • Article 2 (6) of the Whereas 58 & 112 incentive factor to 5 and 10% to a justified legal basis or if it can be linked to
Slide 41: T&C SA – Additional monitoring/reporting
T&C SA – Additional monitoring/reporting Point of CREG decision Content • Monitoring and reporting (to CREG) of the possible ex-post settlement for correction of BRP perimeter (for start- 84 up/shut-down as the ramp-up/down are not corrected) 98 • Monitoring and regular reporting (to CREG and market
Slide 42: Rules for Coordination and Congestion Management
Rules for Coordination and Congestion Management Point of Modifications to the submitted CREG Content version decision • CREG requests the addition of quality monitoring of the CRI computations via • Article 17.5 has been modified to some KPIs (e.g. information about grid elements leading to high/me
Slide 43: PICASSO and aFRR design evolutions – feedback public consultation
PICASSO and aFRR design evolutions – feedback public consultation T&C BSP aFRR and Balancing Rules Kris Poncelet
Slide 44: Overview public consultations related to PICASSO and aFRR design evolutions
Overview public consultations related to PICASSO and aFRR design evolutions • For the connection to PICASSO and the aFRR design evolutions, Elia organized two public consultations: 1. T&C BSP aFRR (28th of February to 29th of March) ➢ Temporary bid price limit for contracted aFRR Energy Bids ➢ aFRR
Slide 45: Feedback related to the temporary bid price limit for contracted aFRR Energy Bids
Feedback related to the temporary bid price limit for contracted aFRR Energy Bids Subject Stakeholder Feedback received Elia’s view Bnewable • Understands the need for mitigation measures but does not support a Elia remarks that the proposed fixed price cap and encourages Elia to look for alternativ
Slide 46: Feedback related to aFRR elastic demand
Feedback related to aFRR elastic demand Subject Stakeholder Feedback received Elia’s view Proposal to Centrica • Understands the value of elastic demand Elia remarks that the proposed measure is consider every • Believes elastic demand should be subject to the generally supported by the stakeholders
Slide 47: Feedback related to aFRR design evolutions (1/3)
Feedback related to aFRR design evolutions (1/3) Subject Stakeholder Feedback received Elia’s view Evolution of the Febeg • Understands that the move to Full Activation Elia confirms the move to the 5-min FAT is a requirement FAT from 7,5 Time 5’ is necessary to comply with European following from h
Slide 48: Feedback related to aFRR design evolutions (2/3)
Feedback related to aFRR design evolutions (2/3) Subject Stakeholder Feedback received Elia’s view aFRR activation BSTOR • Asks whether there is a minimum ramping Elia clarifies that the FATEnergy Bid, (de)activation can be expressed method period > 0 minutes applicable with maximally one decimal an
Slide 49: Feedback related to aFRR design evolutions (3/3)
Feedback related to aFRR design evolutions (3/3) Subject Stakeholder Feedback received Elia’s view Amendments Febeg • Don’t see sufficient changes in the Elia would like to highlight that the amendments proposed in the T&C related to LV proposal to enable a positive BSP aFRR should be seen as comple
Slide 50: aFRR LV – status and planning
aFRR LV – status and planning Entry into force Flexibility Documents release 1a May 1 Targeted entry into force amendments T&C Targeted entry into force Flexibility BSP aFRR related to aFRR design evolutions Documents release 2a (incl. LV) 2024 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2024 To
Slide 51: Next steps
Next steps • Submit and publish the T&C BSP aFRR (incl. consultation report) targeted by 31/5/2024 • Submit and publish the Balancing Rules (incl. consultation report) targeted by 28/6/2024 • Discuss the proposal for the evaluation process related to the temporary bid price limit for contracted
Slide 52: Smart Testing Methodology
Smart Testing Methodology Carsten Bakker
Slide 53: A small reminder – Smart testing methodology
Reminder A small reminder – Smart testing methodology Smart testing uses two scoring systems to select the bids for an availability test: • A scoring system to select the CCTU for an availability test Focus of • A scoring system to select a bid within that CCTU for an availability test today The sco
Slide 54: Bid scoring system determines which bid to select for an availability test
Reminder Bid scoring system determines which bid to select for an availability test Calibration to be done Features Weight Bid 1 Bid 2 Bid 3 • The Score per Bid is based on same 3 features but Volume 60 MW 30 MW 10 MW are adapted to the Bid Scoring System Activation Control 33% 39 12 34 • The result
Slide 55: Impact on the smart testing methodology
Reminder Impact on the smart testing methodology (activation control in bid scoring system, from previous WG bal) • Purpose of this control: Ensure that the volume offered in a contracted Bid is available & that a lack of volume cannot be compensated through DP offered in a non-contracted bid → Avai
Slide 56: Modification to the methodology
Modification to the methodology
Slide 57: Bid scoring – activation control
Bid scoring – activation control The Bid Scoring System looks at the inclusion of a Delivery Point in a bid and, whether the Delivery Point already demonstrated its contribution in satisfying obligations. 𝑆𝑐𝑜𝑟𝑒𝐴𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑏𝑖𝑑 = 𝐹𝑓𝑟𝑒𝑠ℎ𝑛𝑒𝑠𝑠 𝑀 ∗ 𝐴𝑑𝑗𝑢𝑠𝑡 𝑏𝑖𝑑 ∗ …
Slide 58: Bid scoring – activation control
No impact Bid scoring – activation control The Activation Ratio (Fratio) aims to get a better grasp of the quality of the information in the initial score. For example, the information about a Delivery Point which is always activated but fails from time to time is more reliable than the information
Slide 59: Bid scoring – availability test
No impact Bid scoring – availability test The general formula is as follows: 𝑆𝑐𝑜𝑟𝑒𝑟𝑒𝑓𝐴𝑣𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑏𝑖𝑑 = 𝐹𝑓𝑟𝑒𝑠ℎ𝑛𝑒𝑠𝑠 𝑀 ∗ 𝐴𝑑𝑗𝑢𝑠𝑡 𝑏𝑖𝑑 ∗ 𝑆𝑐𝑜𝑟𝑒𝑟𝑒𝑓𝐴𝑣𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑑𝑝, 𝑀 ∗ 𝐴𝑑𝑗𝑢𝑠𝑡 𝑑𝑝 𝑀 𝑑𝑝∈𝑏𝑖𝑑 With the values for the availability…
Slide 60: Bid scoring – margin control
No impact Bid scoring – margin control The Margin Analysis Score of the bid is based on the score of each individual Delivery Point. The score of the Delivery Point excludes periods of activation control and availability tests in order to avoid an overlap of information…
Slide 61: AOB – Next WG Balancing
AOB – Next WG Balancing Alexandre Torreele
Slide 62: Next WG Balancing
Next WG Balancing • Dates for 2024: • WG Balancing 07/02/2024 09:00 – 13:00 • WG Balancing 02/04/2024 09:00 – 13:00 • WG Balancing 21/05/2024 09:00 – 13:00 • WG Balancing 28/06/2024 13:30 – 17:30 • WG Balancing 30/09/2024 14:00 – 18:00 • WG Balancing 22/11/2024 13:30 – 17:30 • WG Balancing 19/12/202