Portland General Electric Co · NYSE:POR

Portland General Electric — Technical Presentation (April 2015)

92 slides from Portland General Electric's technical presentation, Apr 2, 2015

  1. Slide 1: Integrated Resource Plan 2016 Public Meeting #1

    INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN 2016 Public Meeting #1 – Revision 1 Thursday, April 2, 2015 © 2015 Portland General Electric. All rights reserved.

  2. Slide 2: Welcome

    Welcome

  3. Slide 3: Welcome: Meeting Logistics

    Welcome: Meeting Logistics April 2, 2015 Slide 3  Local Participants:  World Trade Center facility  Please wait for microphone to ask questions  Virtual Participants:  Place phones on mute to prevent background noise  Please do not use the ‘hold’ feature on your phone  Ask questions via ‘chat

  4. Slide 4: Welcome: Today's Topics

    Welcome: Today’s Topics April 2, 2015 Slide 4  Welcome and Safety Moment  2009 IRP and 2011 RFP Resource Update  Public Process Overview  2013 IRP Order  Load Forecast  Preliminary Load Resource Balance  Load Forecast Methodology  Environmental Policy

  5. Slide 5: Welcome: Safety Moment

    Welcome: Safety Moment April 2, 2015 Slide 5  Sit up straight  Do not lean forward  Keep feet flat on the floor  Relax shoulders  Keep arms close to sides

  6. Slide 6: 2009 IRP and 2011 RFP Resources

    2009 IRP and 2011 RFP Resources

  7. Slide 7: Resource: Renewable Generation

    Resource: Renewable Generation April 2, 2015 Slide 7 Tucannon River Wind Farm Project Location Columbia County, WA Capacity / Fuel 267 MW / Wind Technology 116 2.3 MW Siemens Turbines EPC Contractor RES Americas In-Service Date December 2014

  8. Slide 8: Resource: Capacity Generation

    Resource: Capacity Generation April 2, 2015 Slide 8 Port Westward Unit 2 Project Location Clatskanie, OR Capacity / Fuel 220 MW / Natural Gas 12 Natural Gas Technology Wärtsilä Reciprocating Engines EPC Contractor Black & Veatch, Harder Mechanical In-Service Date December 2014

  9. Slide 9: Resource: Energy Generation

    Resource: Energy Generation April 2, 2015 Slide 9 Carty Generating Station Project Location Boardman, OR Capacity / Fuel 441 MW / Natural Gas Technology Mitsubishi Turbine EPC Contractor Abener/Abengoa Estimated In-Service Date Q2 2016

  10. Slide 10: 2016 Integrated Resource Plan Public Process Overview

    2016 Integrated Resource Plan Public Process Overview

  11. Slide 11: 2016 IRP: Dialogue Process

    2016 IRP: Dialogue Process April 2, 2015 Slide 11 Communication enhances the IRP process Stakeholders PGE IRP Team PGE Experts Framing & Alternatives & Reasoning & Values Information Follow-thru

  12. Slide 12: 2016 IRP: IRP Team Org Chart and Contacts

    2016 IRP: IRP Team Org Chart and Contacts April 2, 2015 Slide 12 Robert Kate Sima Jimmy Brown von Reis Baron Beitinjaneh Lindsay Analyst, IRP Analyst, IRP Analyst, IRP Analyst, IRP Franco Albi Manager, IRP portlandgeneral.com/irp Brett Sims Director, Rsrc Strategy [email protected] Maria Pope VP, Pwr Ops

  13. Slide 13: 2016 IRP: Indicative Timeline

    2016 IRP: Indicative TraditionalTimeline Timeline Slide 13 used only to facilitate animation during Public Meeting April 2, 2015 Slide 13 2015 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2016 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 IRP 1st Public Complete Draft File Final Acknowledgement Kick‐off Meeting 2016 IRP 2016 IRP P

  14. Slide 14: 2016 IRP: Indicative Timeline

    2016 IRP: Indicative Timeline April 2, 2015 Slide 14 2015 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2016 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 IRP 1st Public Complete Draft File Final Acknowledgement Kick‐off Meeting 2016 IRP 2016 IRP PGE Preparation Public Meetings and PGE Analysis Draft IRP Draft IRP Development Distr

  15. Slide 15: 2016 IRP: Meeting Schedule And Planned Topics

    2016 IRP: Meeting Schedule And Planned Topics April 2, 2015 Slide 15 Q2/Q3 2015 June 30 Workshop #1 Technical • Load Forecast July 16 April 2 Meeting #1 Methodology Meeting #2 Public Implementation Public • Welcome • Load Forecast • Energy Efficiency Results Forecast • Load Forecast • Demand Respons

  16. Slide 16: 2016 IRP: Meeting Schedule And Planned Topics

    2016 IRP: Meeting Schedule And Planned Topics April 2, 2015 Slide 16 Q3 2015 August 13 September 24 September 25 Meeting #3 Workshop #2 Workshop #2 Public Commission (Salem) Technical • Load Forecast • Updated Proposed • Updated Proposed Summary Results Portfolios Portfolios • Flexibility Analysis •

  17. Slide 17: 2016 IRP: Meeting Schedule And Planned Topics

    2016 IRP: Meeting Schedule And Planned Topics April 2, 2015 Slide 17 Q4 2015 October 21 October 22 November 20 Workshop #3 Meeting #4 Meeting #5 Technical Public Public • Final Portfolios • Natural Gas Forecast • Results • Colstrip Portfolios • 111(d) Demonstration • Conservation Voltage • Variable

  18. Slide 18: 2013 Integrated Resource Plan Review Of Acknowledged Order

    2013 Integrated Resource Plan Review Of Acknowledged Order

  19. Slide 19: 2013 IRP: OPUC Order No. 14-415

    2013 IRP: OPUC Order No. 14-415 April 2, 2015 Slide 19 Resource actions (2017) Future resources / portfolios • Renew cost-effective hydro • Develop wide range of resource contracts portfolios • Add 23 MW DSG • Assess Colstrip • Acquire 114 MWa of EE • Continue ADR Pilot for 25 MW Enabling studies Ot

  20. Slide 20: EIM Comparative Analysis Activities

    EIM Comparative Analysis Activities EIM Comparative Analysis Activities April 2, 2015 Slide 20  Develop an Advisory Committee and Charter  Develop a Technical Review Committee and Charter  Interviewed six vendors and chose E3 Consulting to conduct the modelling of benefits for both the NWPP and C

  21. Slide 21: EIM Advisory and Technical Review Committees

    EIM Advisory Committee EIM Advisory and Technical Review Committees April 2, 2015 Slide 21 Advisory Committee Technical Review Committee • Steve Beuning – Excel Energy • Michael Milligan – National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) • Jim Shetler – Balancing Authority of Northern California (BANC) •

  22. Slide 22: Dynamic Dispatch Program

    Dynamic Dispatch Program April 2, 2015 Slide 22 Plant Data System (pi) Consolidation: Completed PI Consolidation Project • Optimizes the PGE plant data systems for reliability requirements, system constraints, and economic dispatch of the plants Cycling Costs Studies Cycling Cost Studies: Completed

  23. Slide 23: Load Forecast

    Load Forecast

  24. Slide 24: Load Forecast – Fundamental Drivers

    Load Forecast – Fundamental Drivers April 2, 2015 Slide 24 Near-term: business cycle affects the economy and electricity use Long-run: economy and demographics drive electricity consumption  Portland metro area economy has been growing faster than Oregon and the PNW region due in large part to stro

  25. Slide 25: Population and job creation drive electricity use

    Population and job creation drive electricity use April 2, 2015 Slide 25 6% 4% 2% 0% PGE Retail Deliveries -2% OR Employment OR Population -4% Recession -6% 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 201

  26. Slide 26: Recent Trends

    Recent Trends April 2, 2015 Slide 26 Oregon Employment Growth Strengthening Economy & Population 7.0%  Economic and population indicators are strong  Oregon employment is outpacing the US  PGE 3-County service area recovered jobs lost 0.0% in the recession at end of 2013 Oregon United States PGE

  27. Slide 27: Population & Employment Growth Forecasts

    Population & Employment Growth Forecasts April 2, 2015 Slide 27 Population Trends Growth Rate Period PGE 4‐County Population (OEA) 1.2% 2015‐2034 Oregon Population (OEA) 1.1% 2015‐2034 US Population (Global Insight) 0.7% 2015‐2034  Western U.S. growing faster than the US average  Oregon continues

  28. Slide 28: PGE Energy Deliveries Growth By Class

    PGE Energy Deliveries Growth By Class April 2, 2015 Slide 28 Energy Deliveries Split by Customer Class Energy Deliveries growth trend by Customer Class 1985 2.0 23% Residential 43% Residential 1.8 Commercial Commercial Industrial Industrial 1.6 Total System 34% 1985=1 1.4 1.2 2014 22% 1.0 0.8 39% 19

  29. Slide 29: Sector-level Fundamentals: Residential

    Sector-level Fundamentals: Residential April 2, 2015 Slide 29  Strong population growth due to in-migration Customer growth is driven  Population growth is fastest in urban areas by economic conditions  Growth varies by region  Long term trend of declining use per customer: Average usage continu

  30. Slide 30: Sector-level Fundamentals: Non Residential

    Sector-level Fundamentals: Non Residential April 2, 2015 Slide 30  Economy is becoming more cooling-intensive, expect growth to be Commercial sector growth is driven by cooling-related load expected to continue  Population growth leads to growth in commercial services, businesses, government servi

  31. Slide 31: Industrial Deliveries

    Industrial Deliveries April 2, 2015 Slide 31 50% Industrial Sector Shares • Industrial 45% customer mix has shifted 40% over time from 35% forest products to 30% high tech 25% manufacturing 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Lumber & Paper Metals High Tech Other Manufacturing

  32. Slide 32: Energy Efficiency

    Energy Efficiency April 2, 2015 Slide 32 Incremental Energy Efficiency 40  Strong history of 30 Average MW EE savings reducing average 20 growth rates. 10 - 2000 2002 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 Residential Commercial Industrial Residential Commercial Industrial  Ne

  33. Slide 33: Preliminary Energy Forecast, MWa

    Preliminary Energy Forecast, MWa 2017-2036 April 2, 2015 Slide 33 4,000 Summer MWA - Avg Annual Growth of 1.4% Winter MWA - Avg Annual Growth of 1.0% 3,500 Annual MWA - Avg Annual Growth of 1.2% 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 - Source: PGE Net System Load Forecast, PGE December 2014 Load Forecast

  34. Slide 34: Preliminary Peak Demand Forecast, MW

    Preliminary Peak Demand Forecast, MW 2017-2036 April 2, 2015 Slide 34 6,000 Summer Peak - Avg Annual Growth of 1.4% 5,000 Winter Peak - Avg Annual Growth of 1.2% 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 - Source: PGE Net System Load Forecast, PGE December 2014 Load Forecast.

  35. Slide 35: Preliminary Load Resource Balance

    Preliminary Load Resource Balance

  36. Slide 36: Preliminary Load Resources Balance (LRB)

    Preliminary Load Resources Balance (LRB) April 2, 2015 Slide 36 PGE’s resource mix is changing  Available resources average annual energy  Hydro contract expires in 2018  Boardman ceases coal-fired operations in 2020

  37. Slide 37: Preliminary LRB: Energy

    Preliminary LRB: Energy April 2, 2015 Slide 37

  38. Slide 38: Preliminary LRB: Renewable Portfolio Standard

    Preliminary LRB: Renewable Portfolio Standard April 2, 2015 Slide 38

  39. Slide 39: Preliminary LRB: Capacity – Winter

    Preliminary LRB: Capacity – Winter April 2, 2015 Slide 39

  40. Slide 40: Preliminary LRB: Capacity – Summer

    Preliminary LRB: Capacity – Summer April 2, 2015 Slide 40

  41. Slide 41: Preliminary LRB: Peak Load Trends

    Preliminary LRB: Peak Load Trends April 2, 2015 Slide 41  Summer peak load growing faster than winter peak  Gas and hydro resource shapes: lower capabilities in summer  Shortage more pronounced in summer, more in the outer years Winter Peak Summer Peak

  42. Slide 42: Load Forecast Methodology

    Load Forecast Methodology

  43. Slide 43: Climate Change: Planning

    Climate Change: Planning

  44. Slide 44: Climate Change: Planning

    Climate Change: Planning April 2, 2015 Slide 44  Staff’s Report for the 2013 IRP: “Climate change… is a matter that utilities should consider in their IRPs. [Staff recommends] developing the scope of an analysis of climate change impacts on system resources and operations.”  PGE last visited clima

  45. Slide 45: Climate Change: Planning

    Climate Change: Planning April 2, 2015 Slide 45  For the 2016 IRP, PGE has partnered with Phillip Mote, PhD to update the 2006 study.  Having surveyed possible climate related energy variables to study in further detail, the study will endeavor to identify how Portland area load forecasts (peak an

  46. Slide 46: Climate Change: Emission Trends

    Climate Change: Emission Trends

  47. Slide 47: IRP Carbon Pricing: Two Rationales

    IRP Carbon Pricing: Two Rationales April 2, 2015 Slide 47  Climate change is real and it is happening now  Pricing carbon in a planning context is a way to include the societal costs of greenhouse gas emissions.  Climate change regulation is real; it is happening now; it is likely to continue; an

  48. Slide 48: Climate Change Is Real

    Climate Change Is Real April 2, 2015 Slide 48 Source: Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change, Fifth Assessment Synthesis Report, Summary for Policymakers, 2014

  49. Slide 49: Climate Changes Dependent on Global Emissions

    Climate Changes Dependent on Global Emissions April 2, 2015 Slide 49 Source: Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change, Fifth Assessment Synthesis Report, Summary for Policymakers, 2014

  50. Slide 50: Different Stories In Different Places

    Different Stories In Different Places April 2, 2015 Slide 50 U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions 7,325 Million tons CO2/yr 6,526 6,233 Oregon Gross GHG Emissions Latest GHG emissions Million tons CO2/yr 72 (million tons) 63 56 Oregon 63 (2010) United States 6,526 (2012) Global 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 199

  51. Slide 51: Emissions: CO2 Sources

    Emissions: CO2 Sources April 2, 2015 Slide 51 Electric power is a disproportionately small source of Oregon emissions United States total Oregon 55.7% 39.0% 33.3% 18.3% 19.2% 12.8% 5.5% 7.3% 3.9% 5.0% PGE Electric PowerTransportation Industrial Residential Commercial Electric Power Transportation In

  52. Slide 52: Emissions: CO2 Sources

    Emissions: CO2 Sources April 2, 2015 Slide 52 Power Sector Emissions in the U.S. are Dropping Source: Energy Information Administration, Annual CO2 Analysis, October 23, 2014

  53. Slide 53: Emissions: CO2 Sources

    Emissions: CO2 Sources April 2, 2015 Slide 53 PGE CO2 emissions are dropping 14,000,000 13,000,000 12,797,011 12,000,000 11,000,000 Short Tons CO2 10,000,000 9,857,939 9,000,000 8,000,000 7,000,000 7,380,331 6,000,000 Cumulative Projected Coal Retirement Other Renewable Actions EE Actions

  54. Slide 54: Emissions: CO2 Sources

    Emissions: CO2 Sources April 2, 2015 Slide 54 PGE Carbon Intensity Over Time is Dropping 0.60 0.50 Short Tons CO2 per MWh Served 0.46 0.40 0.30 0.29 0.20 0.10 0.00 Gas Coal Purchases

  55. Slide 55: Climate Change: Policy Drivers

    Climate Change: Policy Drivers

  56. Slide 56: Climate Change: Policy Drivers

    Climate Change: Policy Drivers April 2, 2015 Slide 56 Americans are more likely to vote for a candidate who strongly supports acting on global warming 45% 25% 17% 14% Much/somewhat more likely No difference Somewhat/much less likely Don't know/refused If a candidate for national office (such as the

  57. Slide 57: Climate Change: Policy Drivers

    Climate Change: Policy Drivers April 2, 2015 Slide 57 Plenty of discussion in Congress, but a Congressional solution will likely remain elusive in the near-term Bills introduced containing: 424 “climate change,” 391 “global warming,” or “carbon dioxide” 254 255 118 95 116 75 55 76 54 31 38 46 45

  58. Slide 58: Climate Change: Policy Drivers – The Courts

    Climate Change: Policy Drivers April 2, 2015 Slide 58 The Courts have Spoken  Massachusetts v. EPA (2007)  EPA Endangerment Finding (2009)  Utility Air Regulatory Group v. EPA (2014)

  59. Slide 59: Climate Change: Policy Drivers – Obama Administration Actions

    Climate Change: Policy Drivers April 2, 2015 Slide 59 Actions taken by the Obama Administration on Climate Change  The Clean Power Plan  Vehicle and appliance efficiency standards  Reducing hydroflourocarbons (HFCs)  Emission reduction goals for the federal government  Bilateral cooperation wit

  60. Slide 60: Climate Change: Policy Drivers

    Climate Change: Policy Drivers April 2, 2015 Slide 60

  61. Slide 61: Climate Change: Policy Drivers

    Climate Change: Policy Drivers April 2, 2015 Slide 61

  62. Slide 62: Climate Change: Policy Drivers

    Climate Change: Policy Drivers April 2, 2015 Slide 62  Trends suggest that the question is WHEN, not if, Congress will act to determine an economy-wide approach to reducing CO2 emissions.  Health care reform provides a useful comparison

  63. Slide 63: Clean Power Plan – 111(d) Description And Framework

    Clean Power Plan – 111(d) Description And Framework

  64. Slide 64: 111(d): Proposed Timeline(s)

    111(d): Proposed Timeline(s) April 2, 2015 Slide 64 Compliance Compliance Regional Plans Due with Interim with Final (2016-2018) Goal (2020- Goal (starting 2029) 2030) Compliance Compliance State Plans Proposed Rule Comments Due Final Rule with Interim with Final Goal Due (June 2, 2014) (Dec 1, 2014

  65. Slide 65: 111(d): Architecture Of The Proposed Rule

    111(d): Architecture Of The Proposed Rule April 2, 2015 Slide 65 State-specific State compliance emission rate goals plans • Set by EPA • States develop after EPA finalizes • States must comply goals in 2015 • EPA approves • Many possible variations • Allocation of compliance burden within state unc

  66. Slide 66: 111(d): Covered sources and BSER

    111(d): Covered sources and BSER April 2, 2015 Slide 66 Peakers “Best System of Emission Reduction” 111(d) Covered EGUs: • Fossil baseload plants with • Rating > 73 MW • Constructed to supply 1/3 or more of potential electric output and more than 219,000 MWh annually Constructed after 1/9/14 • Comme

  67. Slide 67: 111(d): Four Building Blocks Applied To All States

    111(d): Four Building Blocks Applied To All States April 2, 2015 Slide 67 Coal plant heat rates improve 6% Natural gas combined cycle plants re- dispatched up to 70% capacity factor Increased renewable energy Increased energy efficiency

  68. Slide 68: 111(d): Proposed Goals

    111(d): Proposed Goals April 2, 2015 Slide 68 2012 CO2 Emissions and Proposed 2030 Goals for Select Western States 2,500 2,245 2,115 2,000 1,771 1,813 1,714 1,714 1,500 1,453 1,322 1,108 1,000 717 763 702 698 537 500 372 339 228 215 - Montana Wyoming Utah Colorado Arizona California Oregon Idaho Was

  69. Slide 69: 111(d): Three Approaches To Compliance Plans

    111(d): Three Approaches To Compliance Plans April 2, 2015 Slide 69 Portfolio Approach State or regional compliance Mass- Emissions- based rate approach approach

  70. Slide 70: 111(d): EPA Expects To Finalize Rule Summer 2015

    111(d): EPA Expects To Finalize Rule Summer 2015 April 2, 2015 Slide 70 Likely to be Unlikely to be clarified clarified Final and interim rate-based goals Final and interim mass-based goals Use of renewable energy for Amount of cost-effective energy compliance efficiency available Use of energy effi

  71. Slide 71: 111(d): Summary

    111(d): Summary April 2, 2015 Slide 71

  72. Slide 72: Clean Power Plan – 111(d) Modeling

    Clean Power Plan – 111(d) Modeling

  73. Slide 73: 111(d) Modeling - Overview

    111(d) Modeling - Overview April 2, 2015 Slide 73  General modeling structure  Challenges  Reducing rule uncertainty  Deterministic scenario analysis  Case studies  Proposed analysis  CO2 policy interaction  Environmental policy future framework  Recap and discussion

  74. Slide 74: 111(d) Modeling: General Structure

    111(d) Modeling: General Structure April 2, 2015 Slide 74 Western Non-Hydro Resources (SNL) 215 1771 lbs/MWh • Identify eligible units lbs/MWh 1 372 215 lbs/MWh lbs/MWh 1714 • Assign units to lbs/MWh groups 2 647 lbs/MWh 1322 1108 lbs/MWh lbs/MWh • Apply a new 537 constraint to the Power Plants: Who

  75. Slide 75: 111(d) Modeling: Challenges

    111(d) Modeling: Challenges April 2, 2015 Slide 75 Western Non-Hydro Resources (SNL) Poor Run-Time Performance Whose Rate RECs? or Mass? Rule Deterministic ??? EE Uncertainty Variables lbs/MWh Available? Heat Rates? Goal Stringency Regional vs State Fed or EE Availability State Regional Goal Timing

  76. Slide 76: 111(d) Modeling: Rule Uncertainty

    111(d) Modeling: Rule Uncertainty April 2, 2015 Slide 76  Take advantage of timing to mitigate rule uncertainty Spring 2015 Design 111(d) Analysis  Model 111(d) as written Sep ‘15  Take advantage of federal rule making to reduce goal uncertainty  Final rule expected by September Summer 2015 2015

  77. Slide 77: 111(d) Modeling: Deterministic Decisions

    111(d) Modeling: Deterministic Decisions April 2, 2015 Slide 77  Scope of Constraint:  State or Regional Plan? Deterministic  Standard: Variables  Rate or Mass based standard? Regional vs State  EE Expectations:  Available at EPA identified levels? EE Availability  Heat Rate Improvements: Rat

  78. Slide 78: 111(d) Modeling: SNL Case Study

    111(d) Modeling: SNL Case Study April 2, 2015 Slide 78  Scope of Constraint:  Regional compliance  Standard:  Mass based  EE Expectations:  Available at EPA identified levels  Heat Rate Improvements:  Not available  New Resource Constraints:  New resources included in mass cap Source: Crit

  79. Slide 79: 111(d) Modeling: Rhodium Group Case Study

    111(d) Modeling: Rhodium Group Case Study April 2, 2015 Slide 79  Scope of Constraint:  Regional & National scenarios c BAU EE EXPANDED EE  Standard: REGIONAL NATIONAL  Rate based National with National with  EE Expectations: Limited EE Expanded EE  EPA & BAU Scenarios  Heat Rate Improvements

  80. Slide 80: 111(d) Modeling: Energy Ventures Analysis Case Study

    111(d) Modeling: Energy Ventures Analysis Case Study April 2, 2015 Slide 80  Scope of Constraint:  State compliance  Standard:  Mass based  EE Expectations:  EE not available at EPA levels  Heat Rate Improvements:  Not available  New Resource Constraints:  New resources not constrained Sou

  81. Slide 81: 111(d) Modeling: PJM Case Study

    111(d) Modeling: PJM Case Study April 2, 2015 Slide 81 Rate vs Mass Compliance in PJM Region: CO2 Effective Price 2025 & 2029  Scope of Constraint:  State & Regional scenarios  Standard:  Rate & Mass based scenarios  EE Expectations:  EPA & BAU Scenarios  Heat Rate Improvements:  Not availab

  82. Slide 82: 111(d) Modeling: Lessons Learned

    111(d) Modeling: Lessons Learned April 2, 2015 Slide 82  From a modeling perspective, SNL Rhg EVA PJM 111(d) is much more complicated than a CO2 price State - - + +  Scenario analysis shows how Regional + + - + policy design affects Rate - + - + compliance cost  EE availability affects cost of Ma

  83. Slide 83: 111(d) Modeling: Proposed Analysis

    111(d) Modeling: Proposed Analysis April 2, 2015 Slide 83  Use scenario analysis to SNL Rhg EVA PJM PGE address remaining deterministic uncertainty. State - - + + +  Energy efficiency availability both Regional + + - + - in Oregon and regionally affects the rule’s cost of compliance Rate - + - + +

  84. Slide 84: 111(d) Modeling: 111(d) Scenario Analysis

    111(d) Modeling: 111(d) Scenario Analysis April 2, 2015 Slide 84  Four 111(d) Scenarios  BAU EE: Existing regional load BAU EE EXPANDED EE forecasts from EIA AEO delivered in Aurora w/ ETO cost effective A: State Rate B: State Rate energy efficiency Based Based RATE Implementation Implementation 

  85. Slide 85: 111(d) Modeling: Building Block Treatment

    111(d) Modeling: Building Block Treatment April 2, 2015 Slide 85 Building Block Treatment EPA Proposed Rule PGE’s Proposed Analysis All steam units’ heat rates Unit heat rates improved 6% unadjusted CCCTs redispatched to Model determines CCCT 70% capacity factor dispatch 2x new renewables No limit o

  86. Slide 86: 111(d): Interaction With Additional Policy

    111(d): Interaction With Additional Policy April 2, 2015 Slide 86  111(d) is an important constraint, but hardly the only environmental policy operative today or possible across the planning horizon.

  87. Slide 87: 111(d): Interaction With Additional Policy

    111(d): Interaction With Additional Policy April 2, 2015 Slide 87  Existing policy modeled as written in law.  Future policy risk accounted for through CO2 price scenarios  Despite diversity of mechanisms, environmental policy in the utility sector is generally designed to limit greenhouse gas em

  88. Slide 88: 111(d): Interaction With Additional Policy

    111(d): Interaction With Additional Policy April 2, 2015 Slide 88  In an effort to sample the broad Eight Environmental Policy range of possible future Futures Tested in 2013 IRP, environmental policies: Table 9-5  2016 IRP will model scenarios where 111(d) is left final, replaced, or repealed whi

  89. Slide 89: 111(d): Proposed Framework For Policy Futures

    111(d): Proposed Framework For Policy Futures April 2, 2015 Slide 89 Policy Climate Policy 111(d) CO2 Price Existing 111(b) Policy Class Scenario Repealed Replaced Trigger Finalized None High Low Mid As CPP-A X X? X? X X Scenario Analysis 111(d) CPP-B X X? X? X X BAU EE EXPANDED EE CPP-C X X? X? X X

  90. Slide 90: 111(d): Proposed Framework For Policy Futures

    111(d): Proposed Framework For Policy Futures April 2, 2015 Slide 90 Policy Climate Policy 111(d) CO2 Price Existing 111(b) Policy Class Scenario Repealed Replaced Trigger Finalized None High Low Mid As CPP-A X X? X? X X Scenario Analysis 111(d) CPP-B X X? X? X X CPP-C X X? X? X X CPP-D X X? X? X X

  91. Slide 91: 111(d): Proposed Framework For Policy Futures

    111(d): Proposed Framework For Policy Futures April 2, 2015 Slide 91 Policy Climate Policy 111(d) CO2 Price Existing 111(b) Policy Class Scenario Repealed Replaced Trigger Finalized None High Low Mid As CPP-A X X? X? X X Scenario Analysis 111(d) CPP-B X X? X? X X CPP-C X X? X? X X CPP-D X X? X? X X

  92. Slide 92: 111(d) Modeling: Recap & Discussion

    111(d) Modeling: Recap & Discussion April 2, 2015 Slide 92  Thirteen proposed environmental policy futures used to evaluate a broad range of policy outcomes.  111(d) scenario analysis used to prepare for unknown state implementation of the proposed rule.  CO2 pricing used as a proxy for future st

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