Johnson Matthey Plc · LSE:JMAT
Johnson Matthey — Earnings Presentation (2013)
39 slides from Johnson Matthey's earnings presentation, 2013
Slide 1: www.platinum.matthey.com
www.platinum.matthey.com
Slide 2: Disclaimer
DISCLAIMER Johnson Matthey PLC endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the information and materials contained within this presentation, but makes no warranty as to accuracy, completeness or suitability for any particular purpose. Johnson Matthey PLC accepts no liability whatsoever in respect of relian
Slide 3: Platinum
Platinum www.platinum.matthey.com
Slide 4: Platinum in 2013
Platinum in 2013 • Forecast deficit to grow to 605,000 oz • Global supplies show slight improvement on 2012 • Modest reduction in autocatalyst demand more than offset by rebound in industrial sectors • Gross jewellery demand marginally down on 2012 • Strong growth in physical investment • Autocataly
Slide 5: Platinum supplies
Platinum supplies ‘000 oz 2012 2013 % change South Africa 4,090 4,120 0.7 Russia 800 780 (2.5) North America 310 315 1.6 Zimbabwe 340 400 17.6 Others 110 125 13.6 Total 5,650 5,740 1.6 www.platinum.matthey.com
Slide 6: South Africa Platinum supplies
South Africa Platinum supplies ‘000 oz Net changes 2012 to 2013 5000 + 145 4500 + 300 4,090 4,120 No change - 115 4000 - 300 3500 www.platinum.matthey.com
Slide 7: Platinum demand
Platinum demand ‘000 oz 2012 2013 % change Supplies 6,050 6,480 7.1 Autocatalyst 3,190 3,125 (2.0) Industrial 1,755 2,050 16.8 Jewellery 2,420 2,480 2.5 Investment 655 460 (29.8) Gross Demand 7,905 8.905 2.4 Recycling (1,830) (2,045) 11.7 Stock Movement (25) 430 www.platinum.matthey.com
Slide 8: World light duty diesel vehicle production
Pt demand in emissions World light duty diesel control catalysts vehicle production million oz million units 4 10 8 3 6 2 4 1 2 0 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Europe Japan N. Am China Rest Non-road Heavy duty 2012 2013 Light diesel Light gasoline www.platinum.matthey.com
Slide 9: Platinum demand
Platinum demand ‘000 oz 2012 2013 % change Supplies 6,050 6,480 7.1 Autocatalyst 3,190 3,125 (2.0) Jewellery 2,780 2,740 (1.4) Investment 655 460 (29.8) Gross Demand 7,905 8.905 2.4 Recycling (1,830) (2,045) 11.7 Stock Movement (25) 430 www.platinum.matthey.com
Slide 10: Gross platinum jewellery demand
Gross platinum jewellery demand million oz 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 China Others www.platinum.matthey.com
Slide 11: Platinum demand
Platinum demand ‘000 oz 2012 2013 % change Supplies 6,050 6,480 7.1 Autocatalyst 3,190 3,125 (2.0) Jewellery 2,780 2,740 (1.4) Industrial 1,605 1,790 11.5 2,420 2,480 2.5 Investment 655 460 (29.8) Gross Demand 7,905 8.905 2.4 Recycling (1,830) (2,045) 11.7 Stock Movement (25) 430 www.platinum.matthe
Slide 12: Platinum industrial demand
Platinum industrial demand million oz 2.0 1.6 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Chemical Electrical Glass Petroleum Medical & other www.platinum.matthey.com
Slide 13: Platinum demand
Platinum demand ‘000 oz 2012 2013 % change Supplies 6,050 6,480 7.1 Autocatalyst 3,190 3,125 (2.0) Jewellery 2,780 2,740 (1.4) Industrial 1,605 1,790 11.5 Investment 455 765 68.1 Gross Demand 7,905 8.905 2.4 Recycling (1,830) (2,045) 11.7 Stock Movement (25) 430 www.platinum.matthey.com
Slide 14: Platinum ETF holdings Apr 2007 - Oct 2013
Platinum ETF holdings Apr 2007 - Oct 2013 million oz US$/oz 3.0 2,500 2.5 2,000 2.0 1,500 1.5 1,000 1.0 500 0.5 0.0 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 London ETFS ZKB US ETFS Others Absa Price www.platinum.matthey.com
Slide 15: Platinum supply and demand
Platinum supply and demand ‘000 oz 2012 2013 % change Supplies 5,650 5,740 1.6 Gross demand 8,030 8,420 4.9 Recycling (2,040) (2,075) 1.7 Stock Movement (25) 430 www.platinum.matthey.com
Slide 16: Primary and secondary platinum supply
Primary and secondary platinum supply primary to million oz secondary ratio 8.0 8 7.0 7 6.0 6 5.0 5 4.0 4 3.0 3 2.0 2 1.0 1 0.0 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Primary Secondary Ratio www.platinum.matthey.com
Slide 17: Platinum supply and demand
Platinum supply and demand ‘000 oz 2012 2013 % change Supplies 5,650 5,740 1.6 Gross demand 8,030 8,420 4.9 Recycling (2,040) (2,075) 1.7 Net demand 5,990 6,345 5.9 Stock movement (340) (605) www.platinum.matthey.com
Slide 18: Palladium
Palladium www.platinum.matthey.com
Slide 19: Palladium in 2013
Palladium in 2013 • Market in reduced deficit of 740,000 oz • Primary supplies marginally down on 2012, due to reduction in Russian state stock sales • Autocatalyst demand at another record high • Weaker industrial and jewellery demand • Net physical investment significantly down www.platinum.matthe
Slide 20: Palladium supplies
Palladium supplies million oz 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 South Africa Russian mining Russian stocks North America Others www.platinum.matthey.com
Slide 21: Palladium supplies
Palladium supplies ‘000 oz 2012 2013 % change South Africa 2,320 2,350 1.3 Russia primary 2,630 2,600 (1.1) Russia stocks 260 100 (61.5) North America 895 930 3.9 Zimbabwe 265 310 17.0 Others 160 140 (12.5) Total 6,530 6,430 (1.5) www.platinum.matthey.com
Slide 22: Palladium demand
Palladium demand ‘000 oz 2012 2013 % change Supplies 7,355 7,360 0.1 Autocatalyst 6,705 6,970 4.0 Industrial 2,465 2,480 (0.6) Jewellery 595 505 (15.1) Investment 1,095 (565) (151.6) Gross Demand 9,735 8,450 (13.2) Recycling (1,850) (2,345) 26.8 Stock Movement (530) 1,255 www.platinum.matthey.com
Slide 23: World light duty gasoline vehicle production
Pd demand in World light duty emissions control gasoline vehicle million oz catalysts million units production 8 20 18 7 16 6 14 5 12 4 10 3 8 6 2 4 1 2 0 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Europe Japan N. Am China Rest Non-road Heavy duty 2012 2013 Light diesel Light gasoline www.platinum.matthey.com
Slide 24: Palladium demand
Palladium demand ‘000 oz 2012 2013 % change Supplies 7,355 7,360 0.1 Autocatalyst 6,705 6,970 4.0 Jewellery 445 390 (12.4) Investment 1,095 (565) (151.6) Gross Demand 9,735 8,450 (13.2) Recycling (1,850) (2,345) 26.8 Stock Movement (530) 1,255 www.platinum.matthey.com
Slide 25: Gross palladium jewellery demand
Gross palladium jewellery demand million oz 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 China Others www.platinum.matthey.com
Slide 26: Palladium demand
Palladium demand ‘000 oz 2012 2013 % change Supplies 6,050 6,480 7.1 Autocatalyst 6,705 6,970 4.0 Jewellery 445 390 (12.4) Industrial 2,350 2,195 (6.6) 2,420 2,480 2.5 Investment 655 460 (29.8) Gross Demand 7,905 8.905 2.4 Recycling (1,830) (2,045) 11.7 Stock Movement (25) 430 www.platinum.matthey.c
Slide 27: Palladium industrial demand
Palladium industrial demand million oz 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Chemical Dental Electrical Other www.platinum.matthey.com
Slide 28: Palladium demand
Palladium demand ‘000 oz 2012 2013 % change Supplies 7,355 7,360 0.1 Autocatalyst 6,705 6,970 4.0 Jewellery 445 390 (4.1)((12.4) Industrial 2,350 2,195 (6.6) Investment 470 75 (84.0) Gross Demand 9,735 8,450 (13.2) Recycling (1,850) (2,345) 26.8 Stock Movement (530) 1,255 www.platinum.matthey.com
Slide 29: Palladium ETF holdings Apr 2007 - Oct 2013
Palladium ETF holdings Apr 2007 - Oct 2013 US$/oz million oz 3.0 1,000 900 2.5 800 700 2.0 600 1.5 500 400 1.0 300 200 0.5 100 0.0 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 London ETFS ZKB US ETFS Others Price www.platinum.matthey.com
Slide 30: Primary and secondary palladium supply
Primary and secondary palladium supply (excludes Russian stock sales) primary to million oz secondary ratio 8 8 7 6 6 5 4 4 3 2 2 1 0 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Primary Secondary ratio www.platinum.matthey.com
Slide 31: Palladium supply and demand
Palladium supply and demand ‘000 oz 2012 2013 % change Supplies 6,530 6,430 (1.5) Gross demand 9,970 9,630 (3.4) Recycling (2,290) (2,460) 7.4 Net demand (7,680 7,170 (6.6) Stock movement (1,150) (740) www.platinum.matthey.com
Slide 32: Rhodium
Rhodium www.platinum.matthey.com
Slide 33: Rhodium supply and demand
Rhodium supply and demand ‘000 oz 2012 2013 % change Supplies 721 721 0 Gross demand 974 1,016 4.3 Recycling (252) (281) (11.5) Net demand (722 735 1.8 Stock movement (1) (14) www.platinum.matthey.com
Slide 34: Outlook
Outlook www.platinum.matthey.com
Slide 35: Platinum outlook
Platinum outlook • Limited potential for expansion in mine supplies • Autocatalyst recycling should increase further • Industrial demand expected to grow in all key sectors • Autocatalyst demand rising in all diesel applications • Jewellery demand retains scope for growth • Third consecutive year of
Slide 36: Platinum price forecast: the next six months
Platinum price forecast: the next six months $/oz 2,000 1,900 1,800 1,700 1,600 High $1580 1,500 Ave $1465 1,400 Low $1360 1,300 1,200 2011 2012 2013 www.platinum.matthey.com
Slide 37: Palladium outlook
Palladium outlook • Primary supplies to fall in 2014 • Autocatalyst recycling to show continued growth • Autocatalyst demand will rise with vehicle production • Further decline in industrial and jewellery demand • Market facing another significant deficit in 2014 with or without an Absa ETF www.plat
Slide 38: Palladium price forecast: the next six months
Palladium price forecast: the next six months $/oz 1,000 900 High $815 800 Ave $760 700 Low $680 600 500 400 2011 2012 2013 www.platinum.matthey.com
Slide 39: #PlatinumInt2013
#PlatinumInt2013 www.platinum.matthey.com