Cf Industries Holdings, Inc. · NYSE:CF

Cf Industries — Q3 2026 Earnings Presentation

20 slides from Cf Industries's earnings presentation, Nov 4, 2026

  1. Slide 1: 2026 Third Quarter Financial Results

    2026 Third Quarter Financial Results November 4, 2026 NYSE: CF

  2. Slide 2: Safe harbor statement

    Safe harbor statement All statements in this presentation by CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (together with its subsidiaries, the “Company”), other than those relating to historical facts, are forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements can generally be identified by their use of terms such

  3. Slide 3: Note regarding non-GAAP financial measures

    Note regarding non-GAAP financial measures The Company reports its financial results in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP). Management believes that EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA, free cash flow, free cash flow to adjusted EBITDA conversion and free cash flow yield, which

  4. Slide 4: Strong execution and constructive nitrogen fundamentals drive robust financial results

    4 Strong execution and constructive nitrogen fundamentals drive robust financial results (1) See appendix for reconciliation of adjusted EBITDA to the most directly comparable GAAP measure (2) Represents last twelve months share repurchases and dividends paid through September 30, 2026 (3) Includes

  5. Slide 5: Outstanding safety performance drives industry leading production capacity utilization

    5 Outstanding safety performance drives industry leading production capacity utilization 5-Year Rolling Avg. North American Ammonia Percent of Capacity Utilization(1) CF’s 10% greater capacity utilization yields an additional ~1 million tons of ammonia annually(4)​ 0.1 1.9 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.

  6. Slide 6: Near and long-term outlook

    6 Near and long-term outlook CF 2026 Outlook Long-term Outlook Market Outlook Global Nitrogen supply-demand balance remains constructive - European curtailments expected to accelerate - Geopolitical disruptions continue to constrain supply - Cycle duration expanding due to long lead times extending

  7. Slide 7: High energy costs continue to constrain European production

    7 (1) Estimated ex-works costs based on quarterly costs including actual settlements through September 2026 and based on forward curve and projections from October 2026 and December 2026 (2) Northwest Europe CFR price quarterly averages assessed from publications through October 22, 2026 (3) Europea

  8. Slide 8: Global supply-demand fundamentals remain constructive

    8 Global supply-demand fundamentals remain constructive Sources: Industry Publications, CRU, CF Analysis Supply Dynamics Global urea seaborne exports expected down ~5MMT YoY Supply disrupted from Middle East & Russia High energy costs drive European nitrogen curtailments Chinese urea exports needed

  9. Slide 9: CF consistently converts EBITDA into free cash flow at an average of ~60%

    9 2022 2023 2024 2025 Q3 2026 LTM CF consistently converts EBITDA into free cash flow at an average of ~60% Track record demonstrates durable conversion across commodity cycles FCF/Adj EBITDA Conversion % (4) (4) ~60% Avg. FCF Conversion (1) Represents annual and Q3 2026 LTM free cash flow divided b

  10. Slide 10: A proven formula for compounding shareholder value

    10 6.0(1) 8.2 8.7(4) Production Capacity millions (nutrient tons) Annual Nitrogen Equivalent Tons per 1,000 Shares Outstanding A proven formula for compounding shareholder value Since 2010: Increased production capacity 36% Decreased share count 58% 356.3 148.7 ~139(5) Notes: • Beginning in 2015 inc

  11. Slide 11: Strategic initiatives drive 2030 mid-cycle EBITDA to ~$3.3B

    11 Strategic initiatives drive 2030 mid-cycle EBITDA to ~$3.3B Monetizing decarbonization - 45Q tax credits - Low-carbon price premium Blue Point One JV Margin enhancement projects EBITDA Current Mid-Cycle EBITDA Expected Mid-Cycle EBITDA ~2030 CF Mid-Cycle Growth $2,000+ ~$2,900(1) $ millions FCF $

  12. Slide 12: Appendix

    Appendix

  13. Slide 13: Q3 2026 adjusted EBITDA favorable driven by strong volume, pricing and lower realized gas cost

    13 Q3 2026 adjusted EBITDA favorable driven by strong volume, pricing and lower realized gas cost (1) See appendix for reconciliations of adjusted EBITDA to the most directly comparable GAAP measure Q3 2026 vs Q3 2025 Adjusted EBITDA $667 $78 $114 $20 $833 Adj. EBITDA Q3 2025(1) Price Volume Realize

  14. Slide 14: 9M 2026 adjusted EBITDA favorable driven by strong pricing

    14 9M 2026 adjusted EBITDA favorable driven by strong pricing (1) See appendix for reconciliations of adjusted EBITDA to the most directly comparable GAAP measure (2) 9M 2026 adjusted EBITDA includes a gain of $170M from a litigation settlement 9M 2026 vs 9M 2025 Adjusted EBITDA $2,072 $1,067 $(83)

  15. Slide 15: 9M 2026 strong cash generation and focused capital allocation

    15 9M 2026 strong cash generation and focused capital allocation (1) Represents the cash and cash equivalents balance on the Company's Consolidated Balance Sheet at the end of each respective period (2) Consists of 60% of the total Blue Point One JV capex of $232M in 9M 2026 (3) Includes Blue Point

  16. Slide 16: CF Industries Adjusted EBITDA sensitivity table

    16 $2.00 $2.50 $3.00 $3.50 $4.00 $4.50 $5.00 $300 $1.4 $1.3 $1.2 $1.0 $0.9 $0.7 $0.6 $350 $2.3 $2.1 $2.0 $1.8 $1.7 $1.5 $1.4 $400 $3.1 $2.9 $2.8 $2.6 $2.5 $2.3 $2.2 $450 $3.9 $3.7 $3.6 $3.4 $3.3 $3.1 $3.0 $500 $4.7 $4.5 $4.4 $4.2 $4.1 $3.9 $3.8 $550 $5.5 $5.3 $5.2 $5.0 $4.9 $4.7 $4.6 CF Industries A

  17. Slide 17: Financial results – third quarter and first nine months 2026

    17 Financial results – third quarter and first nine months 2026 In millions, except percentages, per MMBtu and EPS Q3 2026 Q3 2025 9M 2026 9M 2025 Net sales $ 1,860 $ 1,659 $ 6,068 $ 5,212 Gross margin 720 632 2,611 1,959 -As a percentage of net sales 38.7 % 38.1 % 43.0 % 37.6 % Net earnings attribu

  18. Slide 18: Reconciliation of net earnings to EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA

    18 In millions Q3 2026 Q3 2025 9M 2026 9M 2025 Q3 2026 LTM Net earnings $ 520 $ 460 $ 2,065 $ 1,303 $ 2,560 Less: Net earnings attributable to noncontrolling interests (84) (107) (287) (252) (378) Net earnings attributable to common stockholders 436 353 1,778 1,051 2,182 Interest expense—net 76 18 1

  19. Slide 19: Non-GAAP: reconciliation of net earnings to EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA, continued

    19 Non-GAAP: reconciliation of net earnings to EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA, continued In millions FY 2025 FY 2024 FY 2023 FY 2022 Net earnings $ 1,798 $ 1,477 $ 1,838 $ 3,937 Less: Net earnings attributable to noncontrolling interests (343) (259) (313) (591) Net earnings attributable to common stockh

  20. Slide 20: Non-GAAP: reconciliation of cash from operations to free cash flow

    20 Non-GAAP: reconciliation of cash from operations to free cash flow, free cash flow to adjusted EBITDA conversion and free cash flow yield In millions, except percentages and share price Q3 2026 LTM FY 2025 FY 2024 FY 2023 FY 2022 Cash provided by operating activities(1) $ 3,083 $ 2,752 $ 2,271 $

CF Industries Holdings — Q3 2026 Earnings Presentation on 6ix