Equinor Asa · OSL:EQNR
Equinor Asa — Corporate Update (March 2019)
15 slides from Equinor Asa's corporate update, March 2019
Slide 1: Oil Markets, March 2019
Oil Markets March 2019 Rafael Herrera, Manager Market Analysis Liquids
Slide 2: Medium-term oil views: Outline
equinor ** Medium-term oil views Outline + Where are we? 6 US supply 8 Opec: Management to continue — Venezuela as a wildcard + After 2020: demand and supply. Flows + IMO + What to look at?
Slide 3: Global Oil Balance
Global Oil Balance Commercial stocks in main OECD markets, mbbl (Y/Y) 2650 3,0 2550 2,0 2450 2350 1,0 2250 0,0 2150 2050 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov -1,0 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 5 year range 2015 2016 OPEC US Other Demand Supply 2017 2018 Forecast 2019
Slide 4: Total Refinery Capacity
8 7 • 6 5 • 4 • 3 2 1 • 0 Q12016 Q42016 Q32017 Q22018 Q12019 Q42019 Q32020 Total Refinery Capacity Current Capacity Under Construction Announced Projects
Slide 5: Production and supply disruptions
3 2,5 • 2 • 1,5 1 • 0,5 • • 0 2010 2014 2015 2016 2017 1Q18 2018 2019 2020 2025 • Production Supply disruptions Prev prod forecast
Slide 6: Venezuela: some impacts of the US embargo
equinor Venezuela: some impacts of the US embargo Crude exports Waterborne ops Oil products import JVs and partners Power and domestic transport From 2 mbd in 1997 to about 350 kbd in 2019 to US Only 50 kbd to other markets (Ex China / India) Jan 2019 Will prevent tankers and/or insurance companies
Slide 7: Oil product demand by region
Residual Fuel Oil Gasoil Jet/Kero Gasoline 110 NGL/LPG Naphtha Other Products 105 100 95 100 90 75 85 80 50 2017 Other Emerging 2025 China India Europe Southeast Asia North America Industrial Asia markets 25 0 2018 2020 2023 2025
Slide 8: Oil supply: Opec, tight oil, greenfields
• Africa North America Latin America Europe Asia Other FSU Middle East 110 105 100 • 95 90 85 80 • Opec 2017 2025 Non-Opec decline Tight oil Biofuel and processing Greenfields gains
Slide 9: Current strength in global oil market due to supply tightness
equinor *: Current strength in global oil market due to supply tightness Weaker medium term prices due to looser balance Qi 2019 Medium term Key drivers Impact on price Global oil demand Lali Len Global shale production ws ee’ Non-OPEC production AyA ee’ _— — OPEC interventions “on AJA aa wh Supply
Slide 10: Non-OPEC supply growth
equinor ** Non-OPEC supply growth Additional gains from US, Brazil, Canada, Kazakhstan and Russia
Slide 11: Medium term outlook: indicative crude tradeflows
equinor Medium term outlook Indicative tradeflows crudes 2025-2017 +300 kbd +150 kbd +350 kbd fi Z SK, a as -500 kbd +800 kbd +2 200 koa : +550kbd -1200 kbd gg -1200 kbd 4 ne si NF me me . Routes are! iustrotve Source: Equinor
Slide 12: Global Refining capacity additions and demand growth
• 6 000 Global Refining capacity additons and demand growth 5 000 6 000 • 4 000 4 000 3 000 • kbd 2 000 2 000 • 1 000 0 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 2017 2020 CDU Demand (exl NGL)
Slide 13: Crude quality and product yields by country
100% 5000 80% 4000 60% 3000 40% 2000 20% 1000 0% 0 Venezuela Iran Saudi Canada US 2017 2019 2020 VRS VGO HGO LGO KERO HVN LVN C4S Venezuela Iran Saudi Canada US 1,50 8000 1,00 6000 0,50 4000 0,00 2000 -0,50 0 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2017 2019 2020 Condensate Heavy crude Light crude Medium crud
Slide 14: Brent historical and forward price; Venezuelan oil production
Brent historical and forward price USD/bbl Dated Brent ICE forward curve 90 Source: mintpressnews.com 80 Venezuelan oil production 2,1 70 1,4 60 0,7 50 0,0 40 2017 2018 2019F 2020F Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Source: IEA (history), Equinor (projections) Source: Platts (history), ICE (projecti
Slide 15: Oil markets update — March 2019
Oil markets update — March 2019 Rafael Herrera, Manager Market Analysis Liquids © Equinor ASA This presentation, including the contents and crrangement ofthe contents of each ndvual page or the colecton ofthe pages is ned by Equnor. Copyright to ll material incucng, but nt ited to, writen material p