Yara International ASA · OSL:YAR
Yara International ASA — Kepler Cheuvreux conference (June 2020)
10 slides from Yara International ASA's conference presentation, Jun 2, 2020
Slide 1: Market update
Market update Dag Tore Mo, Market Intelligence Thor Giæver, Investor Relations
Slide 2: Currently no deficit in the global urea balance ex. China
Currently no deficit in the global urea balance ex. China 350 330 310 290 USD/ton 270 250 230 210 190 170 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Urea inland proxy China Urea fob Black Sea Urea prilled fob China Urea fob Egypt Source: Fertili
Slide 3: Further reduction in European gas prices
Further reduction in European gas prices Source: Argus 3
Slide 4: Wheat profitability at similar level to last year despite Covid-19, corn weaker
Wheat profitability at similar level to last year despite Covid-19, corn weaker due to bioethanol / oil weakness Wheat forward price Jul 20 (Usc/bu): Corn forward price Jul 20 (USc/bu): Source: CME 4
Slide 5: Urea situation in China
Urea situation in China Source: CFMW, Trade Statistics 5
Slide 6: Urea exports from China
Urea exports from China 2018 2019 2020 6000 5000 4000 kt product 3000 2000 1000 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: CFMW, Trade Statistics 6
Slide 7: Nitrogen supply growth is forecast to reduce significantly
Nitrogen supply growth is forecast to reduce significantly Global urea capacity additions ex. China (mill. tonnes) India Algeria Others Russia USA Production 6.7 Iran Nigeria 4.9 4.2 4.4 3.5 3.4 3.4 2.8% consumption growth 2.4 1.8 1.2 0.4 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Source
Slide 8: Annual nitrogen application is required in order to maintain yields
Annual nitrogen application is required in order to maintain yields Annual N-application is critical for yield Stable global nitrogen consumption pattern Grain yield1 from Nitrogen fertilizer Million tonnes nitrogen Ton per hectar 120 -43% 9.6 100 80 5.5 60 40 1.8 20 0 With N Fertilizer 1 year witho
Slide 9: Premium products and digital tools promote sustainable farming
Premium products and digital tools promote sustainable farming Premium products give higher output per hectare and lower in-field Precision farming tools emissions (coffee field trial, Brazil 2018/2019) promote sustainable farming Bean yield (t/ha) Ammonia emissions (kg NH3-N/ha) +42% -98% 3.29 52 2
Slide 10: Attractive Yara prospects
Attractive Yara prospects Attractive industry Operating cash flow Focused long-term strategy fundamentals improvement • Growing population and dietary • Operating cash flow improving with • Crop nutrition focus; #1 market improvement drives demand cycle and Yara actions presence and #1 premium ferti
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