The AES Corporation · NYSE:AES
The AES — Investor Day (May 2013)
123 slides from The AES's investor day presentation, May 9, 2013
Slide 1: The AES Corporation 2013 Investor Day
The AES Corporation 2013 Investor Day May 9, 2013
Slide 2: Safe Harbor Disclosure
Safe Harbor Disclosure Certain statements in the following presentation regarding AES’ business operations may constitute “forward-looking statements.” Such forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, those related to future earnings growth and financial and operating performance. Fo
Slide 3: 2013 Investor Day Agenda
2013 Investor Day Agenda l 8:00 AM Introduction, First Quarter 2013 Financial Results and Strategy – Andrés Gluski, President and CEO l SBU Panel – Andy Vesey, Executive Vice President and COO US – Ken Zagzebski, SBU President Andes – Felipe Ceron, SBU President Brazil – Britaldo Soares,
Slide 4: Introduction
Introduction Andrés Gluski, President and Chief Executive Officer Contains Forward Looking Statements 4
Slide 5: Investor Day Objectives
Investor Day Objectives l Share our Q1 financial results l Discuss progress on executing our strategy l Describe future growth and value drivers SBU and key business presentations Building blocks of 6%-8% average annual total return target l Explain our risk management approach, exposure a
Slide 6: First Quarter 2013 Highlights
First Quarter 2013 Highlights l Adjusted EPS1 of $0.26 Decline due to one-time benefit at Cartagena in Spain (first quarter 2012) and low hydrology in Brazil and Panama l Increase in both proportional and consolidated cash flow for the quarter l Reaffirmed full year 2013 guidance 1. A non-GAAP
Slide 7: Who We Are: A Diversified Power Generation & Distribution Company
Who We Are: A Diversified Power Generation & Distribution Company Full Year 2012 Adjusted PTC1,2: $2.1 Billion Before Corporate Charges of $0.7 Billion Generation Utilities l U.S., Chile, Brazil, l U.S. and Brazil most Central America and 21% significant Philippines most 79% l Includes 8 GW of si
Slide 8: Who We Are: Diversified by Fuel Type
Who We Are: Diversified by Fuel Type 38,425 MW of Capacity in Operation Oil, Diesel & Pet Coke 6% Renewables1 24% 37% Coal 33% Gas 1. Renewables includes: hydro, wind, biomass and landfill gas. Excludes solar. Contains Forward Looking Statements 8
Slide 9: 2012 Adjusted PTC by Strategic Business Unit (SBU)
2012 Adjusted PTC1,2 by Strategic Business Unit (SBU) $2.1 Billion Before Corporate Charges of $0.7 Billion Asia US Rest of World 10% 20% 29% EMEA4 19% Andes 18% Americas MCAC3 Brazil 71% 18% 15% 1. A non-GAAP financial measure. See Appendix for definition and reconciliation. 2. Amounts previously r
Slide 10: Strategy to Unlock Shareholder Value
Strategy to Unlock Shareholder Value 1 2 3 Improving Narrowing Our Optimizing Capital Profitability Geographic Focus Allocation Increase Earnings Simplify Story and Maximize Risk-Adjusted and Cash Flow Reduce Portfolio Risk Returns l Streamline operations l Exit markets without a l Invest in plat
Slide 11: Improving Profitability: Streamline Operations and Reduce Overhead
Improving Profitability: Streamline Operations and Reduce Overhead Targeting $145 Million in Overhead Cost Reductions1 by 2014 ($ in Millions) $10-$15 $145 $5-$10 $20-$25 $10-$20 $90 Savings Streamline Reorg into SBUs Relocate SBU Centralize Total Savings Achieved in Corporate & Offices Support 2014
Slide 12: Improving Profitability: Leveraging Our Size, Platform and Expertise
Improving Profitability: Leveraging Our Size, Platform and Expertise AES Economies of Scale – Achieving Lower Costs l Fuel sourcing Manage roughly 20 million tons of coal per year 50% U.S. and 50% international Capture value across supply chain l Non-fuel sourcing Global relationships
Slide 13: Improving Profitability: Leveraging Our Size to Improve Availability
Improving Profitability: Leveraging Our Size, Platform and Expertise to Improve Availability Masinloc (Philippines) – EAF % TEG-TEP (Mexico) – EAF % 93% 92% 74% 75% 2008 2012 2007 2012 Contains Forward Looking Statements 13
Slide 14: Improving Profitability: Capacity Additions
Improving Profitability: Leveraging Our Size, Platform and Expertise Successfully Developing and Constructing Significant Capacity Additions 4,241 MW Brought On-Line Since 2009; 2,443 MW Under Construction 2013-20162 270 4,241 447 Oil/Diesel 1,951 7% Renewables1 12% 2,443 644 Gas 21% 60% Coal 929 20
Slide 15: Narrowing Our Geographic Focus: Simplify Story and Reduce Risk
Narrowing Our Geographic Focus: Simplify Story and Reduce Risk Closed $1.1 Billion in Asset Sales; Exited 6 Markets Markets Exited 1 China 2 France 3 Spain 4 Hungary 5 Czech Republic 6 Ukraine Future Asset Sales l Businesses with limited growth potential or competitive advantage Contains Forward Lo
Slide 16: Optimizing Capital Allocation: Reducing Leverage and Returning Cash
Optimizing Capital Allocation: Reducing Leverage and Returning Cash to Shareholders Since September 2011 l $1 billion in prepayments $820 million recourse debt1 Debt Repayment $197 million non-recourse debt (Brasiliana) l $390 million to-date Share Buyback l 34 million shares; average price
Slide 17: Dividend Policy
Dividend Policy Targeting Payout Ratio of 30%-40% of Sustainable Parent FCF1 l Dividend level to be tied to Parent Free Cash Flow (Parent FCF)1 30%-40% l Current level: $0.04 quarterly ($120 million annually) 27% l Will be reviewed annually in the 23% fourth quarter 2015 $ in Millions 2012 2013 T
Slide 18: Optimizing Capital Allocation: Footprint in Growing Markets
Optimizing Capital Allocation: Footprint in Growing Markets 2013-2015 Energy Supportive Regulatory and Demand Growth1 Industry Trends Environmental capex and potential new capacity US 1% (IPL); Well-positioned assets (Southland) Limited pipeline of permitted projects – Gener Andes 6% (Chile) in stro
Slide 19: Attractive Risk-Adjusted Returns from Platform Expansions
Optimizing Capital Allocation: Attractive Risk-Adjusted Returns from Platform Expansions 2013-2014 Construction Projects (789 MW1) $ in Millions $1,390 Estimated 2015 Returns2 l ROE: 14% $280 l Cash Yield: 14% Total Cost for All Six AES Equity Invested Projects Platform Expansions Projected to Ear
Slide 20: Maximizing Risk-Adjusted Returns
Maximizing Risk-Adjusted Returns Projecting Total Return of 6% to 8% Annually Through 2015 Adjusted EPS1 ($ Per Share) $1.39-$1.48 $1.24-$1.32 $1.242 $1.022 2011 2012 2013 2015 Implied Earnings Power Maximizing Total Return Through 4% to 6% Adjusted EPS1 Growth and Dividend (Currently $0.16 Per Shar
Slide 21: Executing on Our Strategy
Executing on Our Strategy Improving Profitability Narrowing Our Geographic Focus Optimizing Capital Allocation Contains Forward Looking Statements 21
Slide 22: Strategic Business Units (SBUs)
Strategic Business Units (SBUs) Andy Vesey, Chief Operating Officer Contains Forward Looking Statements 22
Slide 23: SBU Overview – Approach to Creating Value
SBU Overview – Approach to Creating Value Operational Excellence l AES values – Safety first l Industry Leadership: 3 Edison Electric Institute Awards in 6 l Best practices (APEX, years standardized operations) 2007 – Operational improvements in l Scale (strategic sourcing, back Latin America
Slide 24: SBU Overview – Leveraging the Platform
SBU Overview – Approach to Creating Value Leveraging the Platform l Value from existing assets Uruguaiana (640 MW) – Brazil Southland (3,941 MW) – US-CA Tunjita (20 MW), Guacolda V (152 MW), Cochrane (532 MW) and Alto Maipo (531 MW) – Colombia and Chile Inter-Andes transmission line – C
Slide 25: Portfolio Consists of Six SBUs
Portfolio Consists of Six SBUs US MCAC l Largely regulated or l Contracted contracted with DP&L l High growth markets short-term sales exposure l Critical presence l Lower growth market l Platform expansions Andes EMEA l Contracted in Chile l Largely contracted l Short-term sales exposure l
Slide 26: Key Businesses Represent ~70% of Adjusted PTC
Key Businesses Represent ~70% of Adjusted PTC1,2 Full Year 2012 $2.1 Billion Before Corporate Charges of $0.7 Billion Key Business: Key Businesses: Masinloc (Philippines) IPL, DP&L, U.S. Generation 10% 20% Asia US Key Business: 19% EMEA Maritza (Bulgaria) Key Businesses: Andes 18% Gener3, Argentina
Slide 27: US SBU
US SBU Ken Zagzebski, SBU President and CEO, IPL Contains Forward Looking Statements 27
Slide 28: US SBU Overview
US SBU Overview: Regulated or Contracted With Competitive Market Exposure at DP&L US U.S. Generation (11 States) 6,281 MW IPL (Indiana) 470,000 Customers 3,674 MW DP&L (Ohio) 513,000 Customers 3,818 MW 2012 Adjusted PTC1 $410 Million Key Generation Business Key Distribution Business 28% IPL U.S. Gen
Slide 29: U.S. Generation Overview: 94% Contracted
U.S. Generation Overview: 94% Contracted US 6,281 MW in Operation Business Drivers l Largely long-term contracts with single Pet Coke 3% Coal off-taker1 Wind 14% 6.5 year average remaining term 20% Fuel pass-throughs generally limit fuel risk1 l Plant availability and flexibility l Southlan
Slide 30: Indianapolis Power & Light (IPL) Overview
Indianapolis Power & Light (IPL) Overview US 2010-2012 Adjusted PTC2 Business Drivers ($ in Millions) l Rate base $130 $2.1 billion1 $117 Growth through environmental capex and $111 CCGT investment l Constructive legislative and regulatory environment Fuel costs adjusted quarterly Envi
Slide 31: IPL Investments – Significant Rate Base Growth Potential
IPL Investments – Significant Rate Base Growth Potential US l Mercury and Air Toxics Standards IPL Generation Fleet: (MATS) compliance 3,674 MW in Operation ~$500 million total project cost 2013-2016 2,400 MW of baseload coal-fired generation Oil Requested 100% recovery under tracker for q
Slide 32: DPL Inc. (DP&L) Overview
DPL Inc. (DP&L) Overview US DP&L Generation Fleet: DP&L Facilities & Service Area 3,818 MW in Operation Oil 1% Montpelier Gas 25% Ohio Conesville Indiana Columbus Tait Hutchings Miami Fort Beckjord 59% East Bend 15% Zimmer Coal – Stuart Killen Kentucky Unscrubbed Coal – Scrubbed Contains Forward Loo
Slide 33: DPL Inc. (DP&L) Overview
DPL Inc. (DP&L) Overview US Business Drivers l 2012 Net Book Value T&D: $1.3 billion Generation: $1.5 billion l T&D drivers Regulated rates Reliability/service standards l Generation drivers Rate proceedings (ESP) on-going PJM dark spreads and capacity prices Competitive reta
Slide 34: DP&L Competitive Market Considerations
DP&L Competitive Market Considerations US ~3,000 MW DP&L Projected Energy Hedging1 Capacity Revenues ($ in Millions) l Percentage hedged 2013: ~90%; 2014: ~55%; 2015: ~15% $153 l Adjusted PTC2 impact of 10% change in gas price $107 2013: $5 million; 2014: $20-$25 million; 2015: $30-$35 milli
Slide 35: DP&L Pending Rate Proceeding Update
DP&L Pending Rate Proceeding Update US Electric Security Plan (ESP) DP&L ESP Filing PUCO Staff Testimony Key Elements (December 10, 2012) (March 11, 2013) Non-Bypassable Charge $137.5 million/year $133-$151 million/year Switching Tracker Ends June 2016 No Tracker ESP Term (Years) 5 3 Transition to M
Slide 36: US SBU: Key Takeaways
US SBU: Key Takeaways US l U.S. Generation portfolio largely contracted – stable earnings and cash flow l Indiana regulatory climate remains positive l Rate proceeding outcome will set the course for DP&L Adjusted PTC1 Trends 2016 and Beyond Value Drivers l 2013: Overall (5% to 15%) l Potential
Slide 37: Andes SBU
Andes SBU Felipe Ceron, SBU President and CEO, AES Gener Contains Forward Looking Statements 37
Slide 38: Andes SBU Overview
Andes SBU Overview: Contracted in Chile with Short-Term Contracts in Colombia and Argentina Andes Total Installed Capacity: 8,010 MW 2012 Adjusted PTC1 $369 Million AES Argentina 21% AES Gener2 (Chile, Colombia AES Gener 79% and Argentina) 5,080 MW AES Argentina (Argentina) 2,930 MW Key Generation B
Slide 39: AES Gener Overview
AES Gener Overview Andes Diversified by Geography, Technology and Customers 2011-2012 Adjusted PTC1 5,080 MW in Operation ($ in Millions) Decline due to outages Northern Chile and over-contracted (SING) $378 position prior to start of 16% Ventanas IV $291 Central/ 13% Argentina (SADI) Southern 51% C
Slide 40: AES Gener Overview: Chile
AES Gener Overview Andes Northern Chile (SING), Argentina Chile Highlights (SADI) & Central Chile (SIC) l Sovereign credit rating: investment grade (AA-/Aa3) l Liquid capital market l Stable and constructive regulatory environment l Power prices denominated in U.S. Dollars l New capacity additi
Slide 41: AES Gener Overview: Colombia
AES Gener Overview Andes Colombia Colombia Highlights l Sovereign credit rating: investment grade (BBB/Baa3) l Stable regulatory environment l New capacity additions required to serve demand growth1 450 MW/year l 5th largest generator in Colombia Key Generation Business 1. Company estimate of
Slide 42: AES Gener: Delivering Results for Shareholders
AES Gener: Delivering Results for Shareholders Andes AES Gener Has Outperformed the Chilean Market 12/31/05-5/6/13 Performance Highlights Total Return l From 2006 to 2013, expanded installed capacity by 49% 462.2% Addition of ~1,700 MW in Chile Total investment of $3 billion 100% increase
Slide 43: AES Gener in Chile: Largely Contracted
AES Gener in Chile: Largely Contracted with Peaking Units for Spot Market Upside Andes SIC (Central/Southern Chile) Business Drivers 2,615 MW Capacity Diesel l Contracts aligned with efficient generation (expected dispatch of hydro 18% and coal plants) Hydro/Biomass 11% l ~68% of installed capacit
Slide 44: AES Gener: Construction Project in Chile (Guacolda V)
AES Gener: Construction Project in Chile Andes Guacolda V – 152 MW Coal-Fired (SIC) l Adjacent to existing facilities l Construction commenced in October 2012 l Guacolda-level financing (70% of total project costs; non-recourse to AES Gener) l Total investment: $450 million l Long-term power sa
Slide 45: AES Gener: Construction Project in Chile (Cochrane)
AES Gener: Construction Project in Chile Andes Cochrane – 532 MW Coal-Fired (SING) l Adjacent to existing Angamos facility l Mitsubishi is 40% partner l Construction commenced in March 2013 l Non-recourse project finance secured (74% of total project costs) l Total project cost: $1.4 billion l
Slide 46: AES Gener: Development Project in Chile (Alto Maipo)
AES Gener: Development Project in Chile Andes Alto Maipo – 531 MW Run-of-River Hydro (SIC) l 50 km east of Santiago, expansion of existing Alfalfal facility l Environmental, water and civil works permits and electric concession obtained l Executed principal construction contracts; non-recourse fi
Slide 47: AES Gener in Colombia: 1,000 MW of Hydro
AES Gener in Colombia: 1,000 MW of Hydro with Short- and Medium-Term Sales Andes 2010-2012 Adjusted PTC1 Business Drivers ($ in Millions) l Contract sales under short- and medium- $156 term contracts of 1-4 years $138 Target is 85% of the expected output for any $128 current year l Spot sales (
Slide 48: AES Argentina Overview
AES Argentina Overview Andes 2,930 MW in Operation Business Drivers l Low-cost, reliable diversified generation 4% Oil portfolio Coal 11% market share 18% San Nicolas is Argentina’s only coal-fired generation plant Well-positioned hydro and gas-fired generation Principally short-term sa
Slide 49: Andes SBU: Key Takeaways
Andes SBU: Key Takeaways Andes l Largely contracted business with significant growth potential in Chile l Stable and experienced business in Colombia l Low-cost reliable operator with diversified portfolio in Argentina Adjusted PTC1 Trends 2016 and Beyond Value Drivers l 2013: Overall +5% to 15%
Slide 50: Brazil SBU
Brazil SBU Britaldo Soares, SBU President and CEO, AES Brazil Contains Forward Looking Statements 50
Slide 51: Brazil SBU Overview
Brazil SBU Overview: Regulated or Contracted in Large Market Brazil Uruguaiana (Rio Grande do Sul) 640 MW 2012 Adjusted PTC1 Tietê2 (Sao Paulo) $321 Million 2,658 MW 0% Eletropaulo Eletropaulo2 Sul 47% (Sao Paulo) 6.5 Million Customers 53% Tietê Sul Key Generation Business (Rio Grande do Sul) Key Di
Slide 52: Brazil: Large and Competitive Growing Market
Brazil: Large and Competitive Growing Market Brazil l ~3% annual GDP growth over the last 5 years l ~4% annual demand growth through 2021, implying 60 GW of additional capacity needed – 35 GW already auctioned Installed Capacity in GW 25 GW to be Auctioned (~6 GW/Year) 174 182 162 168 151 157 25 1
Slide 53: Brazil: Regulatory Framework
Brazil: Regulatory Framework Brazil l For utilities, tariff reset every 4-5 years – return on assets model Requirement for greater quality of services and lower tariff (tighter margins) 3rd tariff reset reduced EBITDA by ~40%1 on average Driven largely by lower WACC and sharing of efficien
Slide 54: Hydrological Conditions Improving – Rationing Unlikely
Hydrological Conditions Improving – Rationing Unlikely Brazil l Thermal capacity available for dispatch: 14 GW vs. 4 GW in 2001 l AES Tietê first quarter 2013 Adjusted PTC1 impact of $16 million due to hydrological risk sharing 2013 Adjusted PTC1 impact estimated at $27-$51 million Reservoir Le
Slide 55: Tietê Overview
Tietê Overview Brazil Adjusted PTC1 Business Drivers ($ in Millions) l Operational reliability: generation of 124% of $189 $170 $172 assured energy over the last 3 years l Fully contracted with Eletropaulo (11 million MWh) through December 2015 ($91/MWh, annually adjusted for inflation) l Strateg
Slide 56: Eletropaulo Overview
Eletropaulo Overview Brazil Adjusted PTC1 Business Drivers ($ in Millions) l Regional GDP growth 3.3% (5-year average) $133 $129 Impact of Expectation for 2013 3.0%, grows to 3.5% in Tariff Reset 2014-2015 l 3rd tariff reset implemented in July 2012, next reset in July 2015 ($2) l Administrati
Slide 57: Tietê and Eletropaulo Outperformed the Brazilian Market
Since 2005, Tietê and Eletropaulo have Outperformed the Brazilian Market Brazil Total Return 214.2% 93.6% 65.7% Dec-05 Jun-06 Dec-06 Jun-07 Dec-07 Jun-08 Dec-08 Jun-09 Dec-09 Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 ELPL Tietê IBOV Tietê Total Market Cap: $3.8 Billion; AES Ownership Stake: 24% Elet
Slide 58: Sul Overview
Sul Overview Brazil Adjusted PTC1 Business Drivers ($ in Millions) l Regional GDP growth 2.5% (5-year average) $152 Expectation for 2013 3.6%, grows to 4.3% in $119 $102 2014-2015 l 2013 tariff reset concluded in April – in-line with our expectations RAB2 fairly recognized ($1.2 billion) 201
Slide 59: Brazil SBU: Cost Management Excellence
Brazil SBU: Cost Management Excellence Brazil Benchmark Efficiency Programs and Results 2012 PMSO1/Customer (BRL2) l Started in 2007 and evolved from cost R$207 cutting to business process R$178 transformation Strategic sourcing Shared services Process redesign IT tools implementation E
Slide 60: Uruguaiana Provides an Opportunity to Benefit from Underutilized Capacity
Uruguaiana Provides an Opportunity to Benefit from Underutilized Capacity Brazil l Achieved commercial operations in 2000 l Suspended operations in 2008 due to lack of gas supply from YPF in Argentina – pending arbitration l Emergency operation from February 2013 to March 2013 to support reservoi
Slide 61: Brazil SBU: Key Takeaways
Brazil SBU: Key Takeaways Brazil l Distribution: Resolved many regulatory uncertainties Expect Eletropaulo administrative appeal outcome and prior tariff cycle asset base discussions by July 2013 l Hydrology: Reservoir levels improving; rationing unlikely Adjusted PTC1 Trends 2016 and Beyond Va
Slide 62: MCAC, EMEA & Asia SBUs
MCAC, EMEA & Asia SBUs Andy Vesey, Chief Operating Officer Contains Forward Looking Statements 62
Slide 63: MCAC SBU Overview
MCAC SBU Overview: Contracted or Regulated Businesses in High-Growth Markets MCAC Distribution El Salvador 1.2 Million Customers Key Generation Other Generation Dominican Republic and LNG (3 Countries) 2012 Adjusted PTC1 $388 Million Utilities 6% Key Generation Business Distribution Business Other 9
Slide 64: Dominican Republic Overview
Dominican Republic Overview MCAC 850 MW in Operation Business Drivers l Generation ~42% of the system electricity demand 85% contracted (U.S. Dollar-denominated) 35% Coal Largest ancillary service provider l Fuel supply – LNG long-term contract through 2023 at lower prices than current in
Slide 65: EMEA SBU Overview
EMEA SBU Overview: Largely Contracted Businesses in Mixed Growth Markets EMEA Maritza Distribution (Bulgaria) (Cameroon) 690 MW 816,000 Customers Other Generation (8 Countries) 7,507 MW 2012 Adjusted PTC1,2 $397 Million 29% Maritza Key Generation Business Other Generation 67% Distribution Business 4
Slide 66: Maritza (Bulgaria) Overview
Maritza (Bulgaria) Overview EMEA Maritza (Bulgaria) Business Drivers 690 MW1 l Came on-line in 2011 – 2012 Adjusted PTC2 of $114 million l 15-year PPA with NEK, state-owned wholesale supplier 100% of output is contracted Capacity payment denominated in Euro Fuel pass-through l Sound sove
Slide 67: Asia SBU Overview
Asia SBU Overview: Long-Term Contracts and Focused Platform Expansions Asia Masinloc India and Sri Lanka (Philippines) 627 MW in Operation 660 MW Vietnam 1,240 MW Under Construction 2012 Adjusted PTC1 $201 Million Other Generation Key Generation Business 14% Other 86% Masinloc Contains Forward Looki
Slide 68: Masinloc (Philippines) Overview
Masinloc (Philippines) Overview Asia Masinloc (Philippines) Business Drivers 660 MW l Operational performance Availability and efficiency l New Meralco contract Approximately 85% of margins contracted through 2019 U.S. Dollar-indexed Fuel adjustments Lower earnings and cash flows, b
Slide 69: Focused Platform Growth: Masinloc Expansion
Focused Platform Growth: Masinloc Expansion Asia 300-600 MW Coal-Fired l Project permitting substantially Expansion advanced l EPC tender underway l Pursuing long-term contracts Note: For discussion of risks involved in the development process, see Item 1-A: Risk Factors – Our business is subject
Slide 70: Asia: Development Project in India
Asia: Development Project in India Asia Odisha (India) Expansion l 1,300 MW expansion of existing coal- fired OPGC facility in India l Local coal mine with 530 million metric tons allocated, providing key competitive advantage l State government is 51% partner l Permitting substantially advanced
Slide 71: Asia: Construction Project in Vietnam
Asia: Construction Project in Vietnam Asia Mong Duong 2 – 1,240 MW Coal-Fired (Vietnam) l Fully contracted business with U.S. Dollar functional currency l Start of commercial operations expected in 2H 2015 l Strong cash-on-cash returns Contains Forward Looking Statements 71
Slide 72: 2,443 MW Under Construction, Coming On-Line
2,443 MW1 Under Construction, Coming On-Line 2013-2016 216 MW Gas-Fired Kribi (Cameroon) 36 MW Wind Facilities 247 MW Heavy Fuel Oil-Fired (United Kingdom) IPP 4 (Jordan) 1. See Slide 114 for details of projects under construction. Contains Forward Looking Statements 72
Slide 73: SBU Wrap-Up
SBU Wrap-Up l Disciplined and focused management l Achieving synergies within and across SBUs l Realizing full value of existing platforms l Practicing superb stakeholder engagement Contains Forward Looking Statements 73
Slide 74: SBU Panel Q&A
SBU Panel Q&A Contains Forward Looking Statements 74
Slide 75: Risk Management
Risk Management Annmarie Reynolds, Vice President and Chief Risk Officer Contains Forward Looking Statements 75
Slide 76: Business Model Reduces Market Risk
Business Model Reduces Market Risk Exposure Contract Feature to Manage Risk Commodity: Power ● Medium-term contracts (2-5 years) Price ● Long-term contracts (5-25 years) Commodity: Fuel Costs ● Fuel and variable costs pass-through ● Often denominated in U.S. Dollars (exceptions include Brazil Curren
Slide 77: Proactively Managing Remaining Risks
Proactively Managing Remaining Risks l Remaining risks and management strategy: Counterparty credit – Single off-taker and portfolio contract strategies Leverage – Non-recourse financing Regulatory risk – Contractual pass-through and stakeholder engagement at local level Operational ris
Slide 78: 80% of Portfolio Businesses are Contracted or Utilities
80% of Portfolio Businesses are Contracted or Utilities Percent of 2013 Adjusted PTC1 Percent of 2013 Adjusted PTC1 by Contracting Type by SBU Short-Term Sales (< 2 Years) Utilities 17% 17% Medium-Term Contract Sales 24% (2-5 Years) 42% Long-Term Contract Sales US Andes Brazil MCAC EMEA Asia (5-25 Y
Slide 79: Commodity Sensitivity Low in 2013
Commodity Sensitivity Low in 2013 Full Year 2013 EPS Commodity Sensitivity1 6.0 Cents Per Share 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 Coal Gas Oil Correlated Total l Coal and gas sensitivity primarily Kilroot in Northern Ireland l US is highly hedged for 2013 l Oil sensitivity low; primarily from spot market s
Slide 80: 2015 Commodity Sensitivity: Levered to PJM Dark Spread
2015 Commodity Sensitivity: Levered to PJM Dark Spread Improvement Full Year 2015 EPS Commodity Sensitivity1 6.0 Cents Per Share 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 Coal Gas Oil Correlated Total l Coal fleet at DP&L less hedged and primary driver of increase in sensitivity to coal and gas l Exposure to U.S. d
Slide 81: Foreign Exchange Risk Mitigated Through Structuring and Hedging
Foreign Exchange (FX) Risk Mitigated Through Structuring of Our Businesses and Active Hedging Full Year 2013 Adjusted PTC1 Full Year 2013 FX Sensitivity2 FX Risk by Currency by SBU Other 7.0 6.0 Cents Per Share ARS COP 5% 6% 5.0 7% 4.0 3.0 BRL 2.0 14% USD & USD 55% 1.0 Equivalent 13% 0.0 Andes Brazi
Slide 82: Risk Management Key Takeaways
Risk Management Key Takeaways l Business model helps mitigate risks l 80% of variable margin is insulated from commodity risk through contracts or regulatory mechanisms l 2013 commodity exposure is low Exposure is asymmetric, with more upside than downside Long on natural gas, particularly
Slide 83: Corporate and Financial Overview
Corporate and Financial Overview Tom O’Flynn, Chief Financial Officer Contains Forward Looking Statements 83
Slide 84: Corporate and Financial Overview Summary
Corporate and Financial Overview Summary l Q1 Results l 2013 Adjusted PTC1/EPS1 l 2012-2015 Total return l Proportional free cash flow1 l Capital allocation l Key takeaways 1. A non-GAAP financial measure. See Appendix for definition and reconciliation. Contains Forward Looking Statements 84
Slide 85: First Quarter 2013 Adjusted EPS Roll-Up
First Quarter 2013 Adjusted EPS1 Roll-Up $ in Millions, Except Per Share Amounts Q1 2013 Q1 2012 Variance Key Drivers US $135 $93 $42 ● Beaver Valley PPA termination payment Andes $80 $111 ($31) ● Lower gas generation in Chile ● Low hydrology Brazil $42 $108 ($66) ● Reduced demand at Sul MCAC $57 $7
Slide 86: First Quarter 2013 Proportional Free Cash Flow Results
First Quarter 2013 Proportional Free Cash Flow1 (Prop FCF) Results $ in Millions Key Drivers Prop FCF1 + US: Beaver Valley PPA termination payment $352 + MCAC: Lower working capital requirements in the Dominican Republic $235 - Andes: Increased income tax payments in Colombia - Brazil: Lower hydrolo
Slide 87: Full Year 2013 Adjusted PTC Drivers by SBU
Full Year 2013 Adjusted PTC1 Drivers by SBU $ in Millions, $2.1 Billion Before Corporate Charges of $0.7 Billion 2013 2012 Overall Adjusted PTC1 SBU Adjusted PTC1 Direction Modeling Drivers Range2 - DP&L Switching and ESP US $410 − $350-$390 - Southland - Planned outages at IPL + Ventanas IV COD in
Slide 88: Reaffirming 2013 Guidance
Reaffirming 2013 Guidance $ in Millions, Except Per Share Amounts Full Year 2013 Guidance Adjusted EPS1 $1.24-$1.32 Proportional Free Cash Flow1 (Prop FCF) $750-$1,050 Consolidated Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities $2,500-$3,100 Full Year 2013 Adjusted EPS1 Modeling Assumptions2 Total SBUs $
Slide 89: Forecasting Average Annual Total Return of 6% to 8%
Forecasting Average Annual Total Return of 6% to 8% (2012-2015) Based on 2012 Adjusted EPS1 of $1.242 2012-2015 SBU EPS Growth Drivers Dividend Trends 4%-6% 1%-2% 2%-3% 1%-2% 6%-8% Higher Growth SBUs l Andes 4%-6% l Brazil 3%-5% (1%-2%) l MCAC Completed and Anticipated Asset Flat-to-Declining SBU
Slide 90: 2012-2015 Adjusted EPS Operating Drivers by SBU
2012-2015 Adjusted EPS1 Operating Drivers by SBU Overall Direction 2012-2015 Operating Drivers SBU +3%-5%2 Operations New Capacity Cost Cutting - DP&L switching US – + Wind Earnings + IPL MATS ● Ventanas IV Andes + + Higher availability ● Tunjita ● SBUs ▶ Reorg Brazil + + Demand growth ▶ Relocate SB
Slide 91: Prop FCF: Current Portfolio Expected to Produce More than $1 Billion
Prop FCF1: Current Portfolio is Expected to Produce More than $1 Billion $ in Millions 2012 Prop FCF1 2013 Prop FCF1 $1,650- $1,935 $693 $1,950 $650 ~$250 Non-Recurring $1,000- Environmental $1,242 Capex at IPL $1,300 and Gener $750-$1,050 2013 Prop FCF1 Guidance 1 Prop Cash from Prop Maintenance Pr
Slide 92: Prop FCF Used to Reduce Leverage and Fund Discretionary Investments
$1.0-$1.3 Billion of Prop FCF1 Used to Reduce Leverage and Fund Discretionary Investments $ in Millions 2012 Parent FCF1 2013 Parent FCF1 $1,242 $495 $1,150 $525 $226 $521 $175 $450 1 2012 Net Prop Non- Retained at Parent FCF 2013 Proforma Net Prop Non- Non-Recurring Parent FCF 1 1 Prop FCF Recourse
Slide 93: 2012 Parent Capital Allocation Plan
2012 Parent Capital Allocation Plan $ in Millions Discretionary Cash – Sources Discretionary Cash – Uses ($1,367) ($1,056; $311 Cash Balance) Dividend in Q4 $30 Cash Balance as of $43 $1,367 December 31, 2012 $521 Completed Share $311 Buyback $301 $603 $200 $195 Investments in Subsidiaries $531 Begi
Slide 94: 2013 Parent Capital Allocation Plan
2013 Parent Capital Allocation Plan $ in Millions Discretionary Cash – Sources Discretionary Cash – Uses ($990-$1,140) ($990-$1,140) Current Target Closing Dividend Cash Balance $990- $400- $100- $120 $100 $1,140 $500 $150 To be Allocated $180 $180-$330 (Potential Gener $311 Equity) Debt $420 Paydow
Slide 95: Capital Structure – Majority of Debt is Non-Recourse
Capital Structure – Majority of Debt is Non-Recourse1 l Financing closest to the businesses/ Proportional Non-Recourse assets Debt Maturity Profile1 Match debt to business currency $12.3 Billion as of December 31, 2012 Utilize local/regional and international $2.0 markets $1.5 l Sized by cas
Slide 96: Recent Debt Transactions Enhance Liquidity
Recent Debt Transactions Enhance Liquidity, Manage Credit and Support Platform Expansions 2013 Recourse Debt Activity Refinancing in Local Market – (~$1.6 Billion) Masinloc (Philippines) l Outstanding tender offer of $800 million l Refinanced $500 million with local banks Issued $500 million, 1
Slide 97: Capital Structure – Recourse Debt
Capital Structure – Recourse Debt Total Recourse Debt Recourse Debt Maturity Profile1 $0.8 Billion Recourse Debt Paydown in Proforma for Recent Transactions 2012-2013 $2.0 $5.7 Billion $1.5 $6.5 $6.0 $1.0 $5.71 $0.5 $0.0 2011 2012 2013 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Proforma Recourse Debt Paydown Amount M
Slide 98: Debt Reduction and Increased Cash Flow Drive Credit Metric Improvement
Debt Reduction and Increased Cash Flow Drive Credit Metric Improvement at Parent l Targeting solid BB rating l Recent debt reduction as well as cash flow growth will help us achieve over time (Parent FCF1 + Interest)/Debt 22.0% 21.0% BB+/BB 20.0% 19.0% 18.0% 17.5% 15.7%-17.5% 17.0% BB- 16.0% 15.6%
Slide 99: Dividend Policy
Dividend Policy l Dividend level to be tied to Parent FCF1 l Current level of $0.04 quarterly ($120 million annually) represents a Parent FCF1 payout ratio of approximately: 2012 – 23% 2013 – ~27% l Targeting a payout ratio of 30%-40% of sustainable Parent FCF1 by 2015 l The dividend polic
Slide 100: Key Takeaways
Key Takeaways l Improving transparency l Continuing balanced approach to capital allocation l Reaffirming 2013 guidance and total return expectations l Stock represents an attractive value proposition Low P/E (~11x) High free cash flow1 yield of 10%-13% Total return target of 6%-8% (3-y
Slide 101: Wrap-Up
Wrap-Up Andrés Gluski, President and Chief Executive Officer Contains Forward Looking Statements 101
Slide 102: Executive Compensation Aligned with Shareholders’ Interests
Executive Compensation Aligned with Shareholders’ Interests Compensation1 Key Factors Restricted Stock Units 12% Vests over 3 years Stock Options 18% Vests over 3 years 80% Variable Vests over 3 years EBITDA less Maintenance & 50% Environmental CapEx (3-Year Average) Performance Stock Units 29% Tota
Slide 103: Potential to Increase Total Return to 8% to 10%
Potential to Increase Total Return to 8% to 10% l Levers Incremental cost reductions beyond current plan Leveraging our scale Platform expansions Capital allocation decisions l Market factors Currency and commodity trends Higher demand growth Contains Forward Looking Statements 1
Slide 104: Taking Steps to Improve Our Valuation
Taking Steps to Improve Our Valuation 1 2 3 Improving Narrowing Our Optimizing Capital Profitability Geographic Focus Allocation Progress To-Date l 22% increase in l Exited six markets l Balanced use of Adjusted EPS1 in l Realized $1.1 billion discretionary cash 2012 in proceeds at Initiated
Slide 105: Q&A
Q&A Contains Forward Looking Statements 105
Slide 106: Appendix
Appendix l 2013 Guidance Estimated Sensitivities Slide 107 l Adjusted PTC: Reconciliation to Public Financials Slides 108-109 l AES Modeling Disclosures Slide 110 l SBU Modeling Disclosures Slides 111-113 l Construction Slides 114-115 l Asset Sales Slide 116 l Reconciliations Slides 117-120 l
Slide 107: 2013 Guidance Estimated Sensitivities
2013 Guidance Estimated Sensitivities l 100 bps move in interest rates over a 12-month period is equal to a change in EPS of Interest Rates1 approximately $0.025 l 10% appreciation in USD against the following key currencies is equal to the following negative EPS impacts: 2013 Average Rate Sensiti
Slide 108: Full Year 2011-2012 Adjusted PTC: Reconciliation to Public Financials
Full Year 2011-2012 Adjusted PTC1: Reconciliation to Public Financials of Listed Subsidiaries & Public Filers This table provides financial data of those operating subsidiaries of AES that are publicly listed or have publicly filed financial information on a stand-alone basis. The table provides a r
Slide 109: First Quarter 2012-2013 Adjusted PTC: Reconciliation to Public Financials
First Quarter 2012-2013 Adjusted PTC1: Reconciliation to Public Financials of Listed Subsidiaries & Public Filers This table provides financial data of those operating subsidiaries of AES that are publicly listed or have publicly filed financial information on a stand-alone basis. The table provides
Slide 110: AES Modeling Disclosures
AES Modeling Disclosures $ in Millions 2013 Assumptions Income Statement Assumptions Adjusted PTC1 Before Corporate Charges $1,930-$2,135 Corporate Charges ($710-$730) Adjusted PTC1 $1,210-$1,415 Tax Rate 26%-28% Diluted Share Count 752 Parent Company Cash Flow Assumptions Subsidiary Distributions (
Slide 111: Full Year 2012 SBU Modeling Disclosures
Full Year 2012 SBU Modeling Disclosures Interest Expense2 Interest Income2 Depreciation & Amortization2 Adjusted $ in Millions PTC1,2 Adjustment Adjustment Adjustment Consolidated Factor Proportional Consolidated Factor Proportional Consolidated Factor Proportional US SBU3 $410 $293 ($5) $288 $3 - $
Slide 112: Full Year 2012 SBU Modeling Disclosures
Full Year 2012 SBU Modeling Disclosures Cash & Cash Equivalents, Restricted Cash, Short-Term Investments, Total Debt1 Debt Service Reserves & Other Deposits1 $ in Millions Consolidated Adjustment Factor Proportional Consolidated Adjustment Factor Proportional US SBU2 $5,356 ($1) $5,355 $428 - $428 A
Slide 113: 2010-2012 Modeling Disclosures by SBU and Business
2010-2012 Modeling Disclosures by SBU and Business Adjusted PTC1,2 Prop FCF1,3 Subsidiary Distributions4 $ in Millions 2010 2011 2012 2011 2012 2010 2011 2012 US SBU5 $205 $181 $410 $194 $570 $346 $262 $388 IPL $130 $111 $117 $11 $139 $135 $97 $125 DPL6 - ($3) $122 $(11) $232 - - $124 US Generation
Slide 114: 2,443 MW Under Construction as of May 8, 2013
2,443 MW Under Construction as of May 8, 2013 Generation (Thermal) Generation (Renewables) Cameroon Jordan Chile Vietnam Chile UK UK Colombia Mong Duong Sixpenny Project Kribi IPP 4 Jordan Guacolda V 2 Cochrane Wood Yelvertoft Tunjita % Owned 56% 60% 36% 51% 71% 100% 100% 71% Heavy Fuel Type Gas Oil
Slide 115: Attractive Returns from 2013-2015 Construction Pipeline
Attractive Returns from 2013-2015 Construction Pipeline $ in Millions, Unless Otherwise Stated AES Gross Expected Total Total AES Project Country Ownership Fuel MW COD Capex Equity ROE Comments Construction Projects Coming On-Line 2013-2014 Ventanas IV (Campiche) Chile 71% Coal 270 1H 2013 $550 $156
Slide 116: Narrowing Our Geographic Focus – Sold Assets and Exited Countries
Narrowing Our Geographic Focus – Sold 14 Assets and Exited 6 Countries AES Share of Proceeds Business Country ($ in Millions) Remarks Non-core asset; Paid down $197 Atimus (Telecom) Brazil $284 million1 in debt at Brasiliana subsidiary Completed exit from non-core Bohemia Czech Republic $12 market E
Slide 117: Reconciliation of Adjusted EPS
Reconciliation of Adjusted EPS1 Full Year 2012 2011 GAAP Diluted EPS from Continuing Operations ($1.24) $0.61 Adjustment to Diluted Shares $0.01 - NON-GAAP DILUTED EPS FROM CONTINUING OPERATIONS ($1.23) $0.61 Unrealized Derivative Losses2 $0.11 $0.01 Unrealized Foreign Currency Transaction (Gains)/L
Slide 118: Reconciliation of Adjusted PTC & Adjusted EPS
Reconciliation of Adjusted PTC1,2 & Adjusted EPS1,2 $ in Millions, Except Per Share Amounts Full Year 2012 Full Year 2011 Per Share Per Share Amount (Diluted) Amount (Diluted) Income (Loss) from Continuing Operations Attributable to AES & GAAP ($938) ($1.24) $477 $0.61 Diluted EPS from Continuing Op
Slide 119: Reconciliation of Adjusted PTC & Adjusted EPS
Reconciliation of Adjusted PTC1 & Adjusted EPS1 $ in Millions, Except Per Share Amounts First Quarter 2013 First Quarter 2012 Per Share Per Share Amount (Diluted) Amount (Diluted) Income from Continuing Operations Attributable to AES & GAAP Diluted EPS from Continuing Operations $106 $0.14 $341 $0.4
Slide 120: Reconciliation of 2013 Guidance
Reconciliation of 2013 Guidance $ in Millions, Except Per Share Amounts 2013 Guidance Adjusted EPS1 $1.24-$1.32 Proportional Free Cash Flow1 $750-$1,050 Consolidated Net Cash Provided by Operating $2,500-$3,100 Activities Reconciliation Consolidated Adjustment Factor Proportional Consolidated Net Ca
Slide 121: Assumptions
Assumptions Forecasted financial information is based on certain material assumptions. Such assumptions include, but are not limited to: (a) no unforeseen external events such as wars, depressions, or economic or political disruptions occur; (b) businesses continue to operate in a manner consistent
Slide 122: Definitions
Definitions l Adjusted Earnings Per Share (a non-GAAP financial measure) is defined as diluted earnings per share from continuing operations excluding gains or losses of the consolidated entity due to (a) unrealized gains or losses related to derivative transactions, (b) unrealized foreign currency
Slide 123: Definitions, Cont’d.
Definitions, Cont’d. l Proportional Metrics – The Company is a holding company that derives its income and cash flows from the activities of its subsidiaries, some of which are not wholly-owned by the Company. Accordingly, the Company has presented certain financial metrics which are defined as Pro