Avista Corporation · NYSE:AVA
Avista — Technical Presentation (October 2022)
134 slides from Avista's technical presentation, Oct 11, 2022
Slide 1: 2023 Electric Integrated Resource Plan TAC Meeting No. 7 Agenda
2023 Electric Integrated Resource Plan Technical Advisory Committee Meeting No. 7 Agenda Tuesday, October 11, 2022 Microsoft Teams Virtual Meeting With an in-Person Option Topic Time Staff Introductions 9:00 John Lyons DER Potential Study Scope 9:15 James Gall Load Forecast Update 9:45 Grant Forsyth
Slide 2: IRP Introduction
IRP Introduction 2023 Avista Electric IRP TAC 7 – October 11, 2022 John Lyons, Ph.D. Senior Resource Policy Analyst
Slide 3: Meeting Guidelines
Meeting Guidelines • IRP team is working remotely and is available for questions and comments • Stakeholder feedback form • Responses shared with TAC at meetings, by email and in Appendix • Would a form and/or section on the web site be helpful? • IRP data posted to web site – updated descriptions a
Slide 4: Virtual TAC Meeting Reminders
Virtual TAC Meeting Reminders • Please mute mics unless commenting or asking a question • Raise hand or use the chat box for questions or comments • Respect the pause • Please try not to speak over the presenter or a speaker • Please state your name before commenting • Public advisory meeting – comm
Slide 5: Integrated Resource Planning
Integrated Resource Planning The Integrated Resource Plan (IRP): • Required by Idaho and Washington* every other year • Washington requires IRP every four years and update at two years • Guides resource strategy over the next twenty + years • Current and projected load & resource position • Resource
Slide 6: Technical Advisory Committee
Technical Advisory Committee • Public process of the IRP – input on what to study, how to study, and review of assumptions and results • Wide range of participants involved in all or parts of the process • Please ask questions • Always soliciting new TAC members • Open forum while balancing need to
Slide 7: Remaining 2023 Electric IRP TAC Meeting Schedule
Remaining 2023 Electric IRP TAC Meeting Schedule • Technical Modeling Workshop: October 20, 2022 (9 am to 12 pm PST) • Washington Progress Report Workshop: December 14, 2022 (9 am to 10:30 am PST) • TAC 8: February 16, 2023 (9 am to 4 pm PST) • Virtual Public Meeting Gas & Electric IRPs: March 8, 20
Slide 8: Today's Agenda
Today’s Agenda 9:00 Introductions, John Lyons 9:15 DER Potential Study Scope, James Gall 9:45 Load forecast Update, Grant Forsyth 10:30 Break 10:40 Load & Resource Balance (Resource Need), Lori Hermanson 11:00 Wholesale Price Forecast Natural Gas & Electric, Avista IRP Team 11:30 Lunch 12:30 Wholesa
Slide 9: Distributed Energy Resource Potential Study
Distributed Energy Resource Potential Study James Gall, Integrated Resource Planning Manager Electric IRP, Seventh Technical Advisory Committee Meeting October 11, 2022
Slide 10: CEIP Commitment #14
CEIP Commitment #14 • Avista will include a Distributed Energy Resources (DERs) potential assessment for each distribution feeder no later than its 2025 electric IRP. • Avista will develop a scope of work for this project no later than the end of 2022, including input from the IRP TAC, EEAG, and DPA
Slide 11: Distributed Energy Resource
Distributed Energy Resource • Forecast for each distribution feeder (361 originating in Washington) • Washington only study • New Generation & Storage Residential and Commercial Solar Residential and Commercial Storage Other Renewables (i.e. wind, small hydro, fuel cell, ICE) • Load Management
Slide 12: New Generation & Storage
New Generation & Storage • Potential assessment for each option for each year between 2025 and 2045 • Forecast should consider existing policies and cost/pricing outlooks for the customer demographics and building potential. • A scenario for future customer electrification impacting its demand shoul
Slide 13: Load Management
Load Management • Uses current potential assessment for energy efficiency and demand response. – Low-income efficiency is addressed in the energy efficiency CPAs. • Requirement is a geographic dispersion assessment by feeder for each calendar year for each load management resource type. • Building s
Slide 14: Schedule and Tasks
Schedule and Tasks Task 1: July 2023 • A survey of other utility or other entity efforts to conduct similar DER potential studies. The study shall include comparison of the other utility’s size, rates, climate, and customer demographics. • A summary of best practices for development of future adopti
Slide 15: 2023 IRP: Updated Energy and Peak Forecasts
TAC Meeting October 11, 2022 2023 IRP: Updated Energy and Peak Forecasts Grant Forsyth, Ph.D. Chief Economist [email protected]
Slide 16: Outline
Outline o Significant Model Updates o Long-run Energy Forecast Update o Peak Load Forecast Update The world since February 2020: “…all are punish’d.” - The Prince, Romeo and Juliet, Act 5, Scene 3
Slide 17: Significant Model Updates
Significant Model Updates o More aggressive EV forecast with an explicit separation between residential and commercial schedules. o LDV EV forecast out to 2030/31 lines up with Avista’s EV transportation plan in terms of forecasted percent of sales. Assumes WA-ID combined reaches 15% of sales by 203
Slide 18: Long-term Energy Forecast: Residential Customer Growth
Long-term Energy Forecast: Residential Customer Growth Annual Residential Customer Growth Rates 1.3% IRP Avg. Annual Growth 1.2% 2021 IRP 0.80% 1.1% 2023 IRP 0.89% 1.0% 2023 WA 0.69% 0.9% 2023 ID 1.25% Annual Growth 0.8% Comments 0.7% • From 2027 on, the time- path reflects IHS 0.6% population forec
Slide 19: Long-term Energy Forecast: Residential Solar Penetration
Long-term Energy Forecast: Residential Solar Penetration Projected Base-Line Residental Solar Customers 20,000 Comments 18,000 • Solar penetration now higher than 2021 IRP. 16,000 • Current penetration is 0.6% 14,000 of residential customers. This is projected to grow to Total PV Customers 12,000 4%
Slide 20: Long-term Energy Forecast: Light Duty EVs, 2023-2045
Long-term Energy Forecast: Light Duty EVs, 2023-2045 Projected Residental LDVs Share of WA-ID LDV Sales 400,000 45% 350,000 40% 300,000 35% 30% 250,000 Total EVs 25% 200,000 20% 150,000 15% 10% 100,000 5% 50,000 0% 0 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 203
Slide 21: Long-term Energy Forecast: Medium Duty EVs, 2023-2045
Long-term Energy Forecast: Medium Duty EVs, 2023-2045 Projected Commercial MDVs Share of WA-ID MDV Sales 18,000 30% 16,000 14,000 25% 12,000 20% Total EVs 10,000 15% 8,000 10% 6,000 4,000 5% 2,000 0% 0 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 204
Slide 22: Long-term Energy Forecast: Native Load
Long-term Energy Forecast: Native Load Native Load Forecast, Average Megawatts IRP Avg. Annual 1,350 Growth 2021 IRP 0.24% 1,300 2023 IRP 0.74% 1,250 2023 WA 0.72% Average Megawatts 2023 ID 0.77% 1,200 Comments 1,150 • Higher load because of stronger customer growth, a lot more EVs, and adjustments
Slide 23: Long-term Energy Forecast: Native Load with MDV EVs
Long-term Energy Forecast: Native Load with MDV EVs Native Load Forecast, Average Megawatts 1,450 Approximately 100% 1,400 of sales by 2050 1,350 Approximately 50% 1,300 of sales by 2050 Average Megawatts 1,250 1,200 1,150 1,100 1,050 1,000 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034
Slide 24: Long-term Energy Forecast: High-Low Based on Economics
Long-term Energy Forecast: High-Low Based on Economics WA-ID System Average Megawatts 1,450 Variable Base-Line High Low 1,400 GDP Growth 1.80% 2.40% 1.20% WA Avg. Annual 1,350 Res. Cus. Growth 0.69% 0.83% 0.47% ID Avg. Annual 1,300 Res. Cus. Growth 1.25% 1.55% 0.86% WA-ID Avg. Annual Res. Cus. 1,250
Slide 25: Long-term Energy Forecast: UPC Trends
UPC Index, Average of 2003-2007 = 1.00 0.75 0.80 0.85 0.90 0.95 1.00 1.05 1.10 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 WAIDTOTALUPC.r 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 WA-ID UPC, Residential and Commerical WAIDTOTALUPC.
Slide 26: Long-term Energy Forecast: State Native Load
Long-term Energy Forecast: State Native Load State Native Load Forecast, Average Megawatts IRP Avg. Annual 820 500 Growth 495 2023 IRP 0.74% 490 800 2023 WA 0.72% 485 480 2023 ID 0.77% 780 475 WA Average Megawatts ID Average Megawatts 470 760 465 460 455 740 450 445 720 440 435 430 700 425 420 680 4
Slide 27: Peak Load Forecast: Winter and Summer Forecast
Peak Load Forecast: Winter and Summer Forecast Winter and Summer Peak Including All Adjustments, Megawatts 2,500 Peak Avg. Growth 2023-45 2,300 Winter 1.02% Summer 1.25% 2,100 Comments 1,900 Megawatts • Reflects RCP 4.5. • Over the forecast horizon, 1,700 winter and summer peaks will be closer than
Slide 28: Peak Load Forecast: Change in IRP Summer Peak
Peak Load Forecast: Change in IRP Summer Peak Summer Peak (RCP 4.5) Summer Peak Additions (RCP 4.5) 2,300 300 2,200 250 2,100 200 2,000 150 Megawatts Megawatts 1,900 100 1,800 50 1,700 0 1,600 -50 1,500 -100 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 20
Slide 29: Peak Load Forecast: Change in IRP Winter Peak
Peak Load Forecast: Change in IRP Winter Peak Winter Peak (RCP 4.5) 2,200 Winter Peak Additions (RCP 4.5) 300 2,100 250 2,000 200 1,900 Megawatts Megawatts 150 1,800 100 1,700 50 1,600 0 1,500 -50 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 204
Slide 30: Peak Load Forecast: Change in IRP Summer Peak
Peak Load Forecast: Change in IRP Summer Peak Summer Peak: Current and Previous IRP, Megawatts 2,300 2,200 2,100 2,000 Megawatts 1,900 1,800 1,700 1,600 1,500 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 2021 IRP Max Summer 2023 I
Slide 31: Peak Load Forecast: Change in IRP Winter Peak
Peak Load Forecast: Change in IRP Winter Peak Winter Peak: Current and Previous IRP, Megawatts 2,200 2,100 2,000 1,900 Megawatts 1,800 1,700 1,600 1,500 1,400 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 2021 IRP Max Winter 2023 I
Slide 32: Questions?
Questions?
Slide 33: Loads & Resources Update
Loads & Resources Update 2023 Avista Electric IRP TAC 7 – October 11, 2022 Lori Hermanson, Senior Power Supply Analyst
Slide 34: Major L&R Changes Since 2021 IRP
Major L&R Changes Since 2021 IRP • Load forecast • Incorporates climate change impacts – hydro & loads • Used WRAP QCCs for peak capacity contributions • 30 MW industrial demand response (Washington Rate Case Settlement) • Chelan County PUD purchase • Assumed retirement dates for Colstrip (2025), No
Slide 35: Peak Planning Assumptions
Peak Planning Assumptions • Peak load forecast • Planning reserve margins • Winter – 22% • Summer – 13% • Regulation – 16 MW • Operating reserves for borderline contracts – average 16 MW (varies by month) • Use WRAP’s Qualifying Capacity Credits (QCC) for generation and demand response resources • N
Slide 36: Winter Peak Load & Resource Balance
DRAFT Winter Peak Load & Resource Balance 4
Slide 37: Summer Peak Load & Resource Balance
DRAFT Summer Peak Load & Resource Balance 5
Slide 38: System Peak Capacity Position
System Peak Capacity Position DRAFT Using historical peak planning criteria 2027 J: 127 2030 A: 107 J: 178 A: 169 2040 J: 493 A: 524 6 Seasonal winter/summer peak not included at this time, short position begins in Dec 1, 2026
Slide 39: System Capacity Position Using WRAP Planning Reserve Margins
System Capacity Position DRAFT Using Western Resource Adequacy Program Planning Reserve Margins 2027 J: 75 2030 A: 61 J: 126 A: 122 2040 J: 498 A: 507 7 Seasonal winter/summer peak not included at this time, short position begins in Jan 1, 2027
Slide 40: Energy Planning
Energy Planning • Expected energy load forecast • Production capability generation forecast • Normal weather conditions • Machine hour limits • Maintenance and forced outages • Incorporates climate change impacts – hydro & loads • Includes contingency for changes in load and variable generations 8
Slide 41: Energy Contingency
Energy Contingency • Difference between average generation and load conditions with extreme conditions. • Previous IRP • Difference between 90th percentile of load and average load + difference between 10th percentile of hydro generation and average generation • 2023 IRP • Developed a dataset of loa
Slide 42: System Planning Energy Position – Monthly (aMW)
DRAFT System Planning Energy Position – Monthly (aMW) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2024 204 185 347 429 422 485 292 176 276 290 259 292 2025 212 207 360 375 507 590 298 175 275 286 259 293 2026 91 59 208 332 355 397 126 28 113 131 (130) (120) 2027 (197) (204) (53) 149 296 299 (117
Slide 43: Proposed CETA Compliance Methodology
Proposed CETA Compliance Methodology • CEIP outlines 2023-2025 clean energy CETA Compliance Targets targets 100% Clean Resource % of Retail Load 10% 5% 0% 90% Primary Target % 20% 15% 100% 95% 80% Alternative Compliance % 90% 85% • 2026-2029 target continue trend to 2030 70% 73% 77% 80% 60% 70% 66%
Slide 44: Washington Clean Energy Position
DRAFT Washington Clean Energy Position 1,000 Clean Gen =< monthly net load Primary Shortfall 900 Clean Gen > monthly net load Idaho Hydro 800 Net Retail Load Average Megawatts 700 Primary Compliance Target 600 500 Primary Compliance Position aMW 400 2030-33: +6 2034-37: -81 300 2038-41: -155 2042-44
Slide 45: Natural Gas Market Dynamics and Prices
Natural Gas Market Dynamics and Prices Michael Brutocao Tom Pardee 1 DRAFT
Slide 46: Wood Mackenzie – Legal Disclaimer
Wood Mackenzie – Legal Disclaimer The foregoing [chart/graph/table/information] was obtained from the North America Gas Service™, a product of Wood Mackenzie.” Any Information disclosed pursuant to this agreement shall further include the following disclaimer: "The data and information provided by W
Slide 47: Demand: Natural gas remains strategically important in North America
Demand woodmac.com B&B Natural gas remains strategically important in North America as it represents at least a third of total energy demand over the next 30 years The pace of energy transition threatens gas demand growth as fossil fuel demand wanes in the long term Primary energy demand mix in Nort
Slide 48: Demand: US regional demand
Demand US regional demand: the Gulf Coast stands out as domestic demand increases despite peaking in late 2030s woodmac.com 575 Gulf Coast Pacific Midwest Northeast + Domestic demand peaks by late 40 ,° Pacific domestic demand 40 |+ Midwest demand reaches peak in + After king at 17 befd in 2023. 40
Slide 49: Demand: North American domestic demand peaks early 2030s
Demand woodmac.com 2 North American domestic demand reaches its peak in the early 2030s; longer term growth only from blue hydrogen and transport sectors Energy transition impacts power demand the most with demand falling by almost two thirds between 2022 and 2050 North America gas demand by sector
Slide 50: Demand: Accelerated coal retirements and coal-to-gas switching
Demand woodmac.com & Accelerated coal retirements allows for more coal-to-gas switching in the 2020s but gas burns decline over time with higher renewable penetration Power load has been revised higher mostly in the late 2040s due to higher EV conversion, heating electrification and stronger industr
Slide 51: Supply: North America has large gas resources
Supply North America has large quantities of gas resources available In addition to commodity prices, factors such as well economics, infrastructure development, and investor sentiment will dictate how much resource is ultimately produced Remaining gas resources for key onshore North America regions
Slide 52: LNG Exports
US exports more LNG to Europe, less to Asia, Brazil, Mexico. Exports of U.S. liquified natural gas, first half 2021 vs. first half 2022. LNG Exports - span reece aly mance anams croatia Turkey uitnuania The United States became the world’s largest LNG vetiknson exporter in the first half of 2022 Pol
Slide 53: North American Rig Count
9 # of Rigs 0 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 500 7/17/1987 7/17/1989 7/17/1991 7/17/1993 Source: Baker Hughes 7/17/1995 7/17/1997 7/17/1999 Oil 7/17/2001 US 7/17/2003 Gas 7/17/2005 7/17/2007 7/17/2009 7/17/2011 7/17/2013 7/17/2015 7/17/2017 7/17/2019 7/17/2021 North American Rig Count DRAFT 0 100 200 300 4
Slide 54: Forward Prices (9/23/2022)
Forward Prices (9/23/2022) 10 DRAFT
Slide 55: Price Forecast Blending
Price Forecast Blending 11 DRAFT
Slide 56: Expected Case Price Forecasts
Expected Case Price Forecasts 12 DRAFT
Slide 57: Levelized Costs (2023 – 2045)
Levelized Costs (2023 – 2045) 13 DRAFT
Slide 58: PLEXOS Stochastics
14 PLEXOS Stochastics 4.3.1. Autocorrelation Model In the autocorrelation model, the differential equation is: e= axe,, +(1-a)xn xB xS where: @, is the error for time period t a is the autocorrelation parameter (between 0 and 1) r, is anormal distributed random number P. is the expected value (profi
Slide 59: PLEXOS Stochastics Continued
PLEXOS Stochastics Continued Without Autocorrelation With Autocorrelation 15 DRAFT
Slide 60: Stochastics: Henry Hub (300 Draws)
Stochastics: Henry Hub (300 Draws) 16 DRAFT
Slide 61: Stochastics: Henry Hub Levelized Prices (300 Draws)
Stochastics: Henry Hub Levelized Prices (300 Draws) 17 DRAFT
Slide 62: Results: Henry Hub Stochastics (300 Draws)
Results: Henry Hub Stochastics (300 Draws) 18 DRAFT
Slide 63: Green Hydrogen (H2)
H H Green Hydrogen (H2) • Hydrogen is the most abundant $45.00 element in the universe $40.00 $35.00 • The lightest element and wants $30.00 to escape making it harder to $25.00 contain $20.00 $15.00 • Highly combustible $10.00 $5.00 • Tax credits from IRA assumed at $- a levelized credit for the fu
Slide 64: Ammonia
H N Ammonia H H $45.00 • One of the most produced chemicals in the United States $40.00 $35.00 • Usually shipped as a compressed liquid in steel $30.00 containers $25.00 • Not highly flammable $20.00 $15.00 • Can be used as a fuel in emission-free fuel cells and turbines $10.00 $5.00 • Can be made u
Slide 65: Electric Wholesale Market Price Forecast
Electric Wholesale Market Price Forecast Lori Hermanson, Senior Resource Analyst Electric IRP, Seventh Technical Advisory Committee Meeting October 11, 2022
Slide 66: Overview
Overview • This market price forecast will be used in the IRP • Updated from draft price forecast presented in March – Loads – Climate impacts for hydro and loads – Natural gas and carbon prices – Consultant inputs • Stochastics electric price modeling in process 2
Slide 67: Market Price Forecast – Purpose
Market Price Forecast – Purpose • Estimate “market value” of resources options for the IRP • Estimate dispatch of “dispatchable” resources • Informs avoided costs • May change resource selection if resource production is counter to needs of the wholesale market Source: NERC 3
Slide 68: Methodology
Methodology • 3rd party software - Aurora by Energy Exemplar • Electric market fundamentals - production cost model • Simulates generation dispatch to meet regional load • Outputs: – Market prices (electric) – Regional energy mix – Transmission usage – Greenhouse gas emissions – Power plant margins,
Slide 69: Modeling Process
Modeling Process 3 Capacity Expansion 2 Input Changes Add new resource 30 yr hydro w climate forecast 6 Re-Run Capacity 7 Run Full 1 Vendor change 5 Test Year Forecast 8 Run Scenarios Database (Capacity/RPS) 4 Prelim Expansion NG prices Stochastic Study Stochastic & Deterministic (2020 North Include
Slide 70: Load Forecast
Draft Forecast Load Forecast • Regional load forecast from IHS Western Interconnect Annual Load California/Baja Rockies Canada Southwest Northwest – Forecast includes energy efficiency 140,000 120,000 • Add net meter resource forecast Average Megawatts 100,000 – Annual input with hourly shape 80,000
Slide 71: Electric Vehicle and Solar Adjustments
Draft Forecast Electric Vehicle and Solar Adjustments Roof Top Solar Electric Vehicles • EIA existing estimates for history • Penetration rates increase each year • IHS regional growth rates • 15-65% light duty (2040) • 12-15% medium duty (2040) • 5% heavy duty (2040) Western Interconnect Rooftop So
Slide 72: WECC Weighted GHG Emission Prices
Draft Forecast WECC Weighted GHG Emission Prices • CA current prices + 2030 national carbon price • $5.43 levelized per Metric Tonnes (WA) • Revised 2019 IEPR Carbon Price Projections (CA) and national price estimate (consultant) • To address imports, exporting region incurs a carbon price adder to
Slide 73: New Resource Forecast (Western Interconnect)
Draft Forecast New Resource Forecast (Western Interconnect) 9
Slide 74: U.S. West Resource Type Forecast
Draft Forecast U.S. West Resource Type Forecast Significant changes 2045 to 2023 (aGW) Solar: + 18.4 Wind: + 16.0 Nat Gas: - 2.4 Coal: - 13.6 Nuclear: - 3.9 Other: + 5.7 Total: + 20.2 10
Slide 75: Northwest Resource Type Forecast
Draft Forecast Northwest Resource Type Forecast Significant changes (aGW) 2045 to 2023 Solar: + 3.0 Wind: + 4.0 Nat Gas: - 2.1 Coal: - 0.7 Other: + 0.2 Nuclear: - 0.8 Total: + 5.4 11
Slide 76: Greenhouse Gas Forecast U.S. Western Interconnect
Draft Forecast Greenhouse Gas Forecast U.S. Western Interconnect 12
Slide 77: Greenhouse Gas Forecast Northwest States
Greenhouse Gas Forecast Draft Forecast Northwest States 13
Slide 78: Mid-C Electric Price Forecast
Draft forecast Mid-C Electric Price Forecast • Levelized Price: – 2023-45: $38.16/MWh • Off-peak prices overtake on-peak in 2027 on an annual basis • Super peak evening (4pm-10pm) prices remain high 14
Slide 79: Hourly Wholesale Mid-C Electric Price Shapes
Draft Forecast Hourly Wholesale Mid-C Electric Price Shapes 15
Slide 80: Data Availability
Data Availability Outputs • Expected Case: annual Mid-C prices by iteration • Expected Case: hourly Mid-C prices • Regional resource dispatch • Regional GHG emissions 16
Slide 81: Western Resource Adequacy Program
WESTERN RESOURCE ADEQUACY PROGRAM Review of preliminary, non-binding WRAP regional data for the current participating footprint Avista IRP TAC Meeting October 11, 2022 Link to public webinar 1
Slide 82: Overview
OVERVIEW » Reliability first! Implementing a west- wide resource adequacy program must be a priority for the region as the regions resource mix changes » Currently 26 utilities are participating in the WRAP non-binding program phase » Western Power Pool is the Program Administrator and filed a tarif
Slide 83: Today's Objectives
TODAY'S OBJECTIVES » Provide an overview of the loads and resources in the WRAP MW footprint » Provide and overview of installations and nameplate for wind and solar » Provide an overview of the QCC and ELCC values for each resource class » Provide an overview of Planning Reserve Margin values (PRM)
Slide 84: Before We Begin
BEFORE WE BEGIN » Modeling provided utilizes WRAP program design, assuming full binding implementation of the WRAP as designed − Metrics assume diversity benefit and a level of forward procurement on aggregate that is not presently expected without implementation of the WRAP » Modeling was performed
Slide 85: Northwest Winters
Northwest % - Winter 2023-2024 Battery Combined Cycle 0.13% 1.96% Coal 8.91% 2.16% 62.21% DR Gas Turbine 2.50% Nuclear Run-of-River NORTHWEST 0.20% 5.43% 12.11% Solar 2.07% 2.32% Wind Hydro 0.00% 20.00% 40.00% 60.00% 80.00% 100.00% 120.00% WINTERS Percent (%) Other Northwest % - Winter 2026-2027 Bat
Slide 86: Northwest Summers
Northwest % - Summer 2024 Battery Combined Cycle 0.25% Coal 8.95% 60.67% 1.97% 2.43% DR Gas Turbine 2.36% Nuclear NORTHWEST Run-of-River 2.22% 5.81% 12.96% Solar 0.22% 2.16% Wind SUMMERS Hydro 0.00% 20.00% 40.00% 60.00% 80.00% 100.00% 120.00% Other Percent (%) Northwest % - Summer 2027 Battery 8.77%
Slide 87: Key Reminders
» Not all resources shown in the preceding slides can be assumed to be available to the WRAP footprint for resource adequacy purposes − Planned outages are not considered; they will be managed by LREs from their surplus − Does not account for activities and needs of KEY neighboring, non-participatin
Slide 88: Wind Zones
WIND ZONES Nameplate Zone # of Plants Capacity (MW) Wind VER1 54 5,734 Wind VER2 44 2,400 Wind VER3 23 1,378 Wind VER4 24 2,429 Wind VER5 Aggregate 747 Total 146 12,688 8
Slide 89: Solar Zones
SOLAR ZONES Nameplate Zone # of Plants Capacity (MW) Solar VER1 159 2,138 Solar VER2 108 9,024 Total 267 11,162 9
Slide 90: Peak Load
PEAK LOAD Non-coincident 1-in-2 (P50) Peak Load 45000 Max: 41,502 MW 40000 Max: 37,434 MW 35000 Max: 35,894 MW MW 30000 Max: 23,435 MW 25000 20000 June July August September October November December January February March NW SW 10
Slide 91: Wind ELCC - Winter
WIND ELCC - WINTER ELCC by Zone 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% November December January February March Wind VER1 Wind VER2 Wind VER3 Wind VER4 Wind VER5 11
Slide 92: Wind ELCC - Summer
WIND ELCC - SUMMER ELCC by Zone 22% 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% June July August September Wind VER1 Wind VER2 Wind VER3 Wind VER4 Wind VER5 12
Slide 93: Wind ELCC – Wind at Incremental GW Installations
WIND ELCC – W IND AT I NCREMENTAL GW I NSTALLATIONS Incremental GW Installations 26% 24% 22% 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% June July August September October November December January February March +3GW Wind +6GW Wind +9GW Wind 13
Slide 94: Solar ELCC - Winter
SOLAR ELCC - WINTER ELCC by Zone 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% November December January February March Solar VER1 Solar VER2 14
Slide 95: Solar ELCC - Summer
SOLAR ELCC - SUMMER ELCC by Zone 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% June July August September Solar VER1 Solar VER2 15
Slide 96: Solar ELCC – Solar at Incremental GW Installations
SOLAR ELCC – SOLAR AT INCREMENTAL GW INSTALLATIONS Incremental GW Installations 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% June July August September October November December January February March +3GW Solar +6GW Solar +9GW Solar 16
Slide 97: Run-of-River QCC Winter
RUN-OF-RIVER QCC W INTER Run-of-River QCC 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% November December January February March Summer Peaking Winter Peaking 17
Slide 98: Run-of-River QCC Summer
RUN-OF-RIVER QCC SUMMER Run-of-River QCC 75% 65% 55% 45% 35% 25% 15% June July August September Summer Peaking Winter Peaking 18
Slide 99: Storage Hydro QCC - Winter
STORAGE HYDRO QCC - WINTER Storage Hydro 90.00% 85.00% 80.00% 75.00% 70.00% 65.00% 60.00% 55.00% November December January February March NW SW 19
Slide 100: Storage Hydro QCC - Summer
STORAGE HYDRO QCC - SUMMER Storage Hydro 87.00% 85.00% 83.00% 81.00% 79.00% 77.00% 75.00% June July August September NW SW 20
Slide 101: Thermal QCC- Winter
THERMAL QCC- WINTER 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 99.00% 98.24% 97.88% 98.00% 97.00% Average 96.00% Max 95.00% Min 94.00% *Uses indicative values 93.00% for resources that did 92.17% 92.17% not provide GADS data 92.00% NW SW 21
Slide 102: Thermal QCC- Summer
THERMAL QCC- SUMMER 100.00% 100.00% 99.96% 99.00% 98.00% 97.54% 97.75% 97.00% 96.00% Average 95.00% Max Min 94.00% 93.00% *Uses indicative values 92.00% for resources that did 91.42% 91.42% not provide GADS data 91.00% NW SW 22
Slide 103: PRM Considerations
» Attempting to maintain 0.1 LOLE across the season » Allow up to 0.01 LOLE in each PRM individual month CONSIDERATIONS » Non-Coincidental Peak load for a given month is a significant factor in calculation of PRM (lower load months will have higher PRM value) 23
Slide 104: PRM – Northwest (UCAP)
PRM – NORTHWEST (UCAP) 35.0% 30.0% 27.5% 25.0% 26.9% 23.1% 21.1% PRM 19.3% 19.7% 20.0% 21.6% 18.6% 17.7% 19.9% 19.0% 17.7% 17.9% 15.0% 16.5% 10.5% 11.2% 10.4% 10.3% 10.0% November December January February March April May June July August September 2023-2024 2026-2027 24
Slide 105: Current Phase Activities
CURRENT PHASE ACTIVITIES PO = Program Operator LOLE = Loss of Load Expectation ELCC = Expected Load Carrying Capacity PO running LOLE/ELCC Showing for Showing for Asking for sign PO Winter 2022- Summer ups in late 2022 collected models – draft results 2023 Non- 2023 Non- for transition to data from
Slide 106: WRAP – Phased Roll Out
WRAP – PHASED ROLL OUT Binding Program With Transition Non-Binding Forward Showing Provisions (FS and Ops) Winter 22-23, Summer 23, Winter 23-24, Summer 25, Winter 25-26, Summer 26, Winter Summer 24, Winter 24-25 26-27, Summer 27, Winter 27-28 Summer Summer Summer Summer Summer Summer Summer 2022 20
Slide 107: Thank You
THANK YOU For general inquiries or to be added to our mailing list: [email protected] 27
Slide 108: Washington Resource Selection & Customer Benefit Indicators
Washington Resource Selection & Customer Benefit Indicators Annette Brandon, Wholesale Marketing Manager Electric IRP, Seventh Technical Advisory Committee Meeting October 11, 2022
Slide 109: CEIP Development
CEIP Development Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) – Filed final April 30, 2021 20+ year resource planning identifying customer future resource needs Clean Energy Action Plan (CEAP) – Filed jointly with IRP Sets 10-Year targets for resources based on the lowest reasonable cost plan including; filed joi
Slide 110: Public Participation Groups and Process
Public Participation Groups and Process Equity is at the core of the transition to clean energy. Company must ensure the “equitable distribution of energy and nonenergy benefits and reductions of burdens to vulnerable populations and highly impacted communities” in development of CEIP. Benefits/Barr
Slide 111: What is a “Customer Benefit Indicator”?
What is a “Customer Benefit Indicator”? “…is an attribute, either quantitative or qualitative, of resources or related distribution investments associated with customer benefits described in RCW 19.405.040(8).” Equity • Equitable distribution of energy and non-energy benefits and reductions of burde
Slide 112: Customer Benefit Indicator – Process
Customer Benefit Indicator – Process Public Participation • Informed by a Public Participation Process in development of Clean Energy Implementation Plan Customer Benefit Indicator Equity Advisory Group (EAG) • EAG provides equity lens applied to resources selection and CBIs are intended to CBIs par
Slide 113: Approved Customer Benefit Indicator (CBI) by Equity Area
Approved Customer Benefit Indicator (CBI) by Equity Area • Participation in • Outreach and • Named Community Company Programs Communication Clean Energy Several Impact multiple benefit • Number of • Transportation • Investment in areas: Households with Electrification Named Communities • Energy high
Slide 114: What is a Non-Energy Impact?
What is a Non-Energy Impact? • NEIs are at the vital intersection of energy and equity and central part of the metrics of equity Participant Benefits • Non-energy impacts is a way to understand the total O & M Savings Employee Productivity contribution of investments that goes beyond the simple ener
Slide 115: Non-Energy Impacts in IRP
Non-Energy Impacts in IRP Supply-Side Resources Demand-Side Resources* IRP Resource Selection Content Here Public Health You can simply impress your Income & Health audience and add a unique zing Economic Develop. (income) • Non-energy impacts quantified PM2.5, and appeal SO2, to your NOx Presentati
Slide 116: CBI and Non-Energy Impact CEIP Condition #2
Customer Benefit Indicator and Non-Energy Impact Clean Energy Implementation Plan Condition #2 • Avista will apply Non-Energy Impacts (NEIs) and Customer Benefit Indicators (CBIs) to all resource and program selections in determining its Washington resource strategy • Avista agrees to engage and con
Slide 117: CBIs and Resource Measurements Not Applicable to Resource Selection
CBIs and Resource Measurements Not applicable to Resource Selection The following CBIs are measurement tools for implementation of various resources or to address qualitative inequities primarily in Named Communities (1) Participation in Company • Participation in Weatherization Programs • Measures
Slide 118: CBIs and Resource Measurements Not Applicable, Continued
CBIs and Resource Measurements Not applicable to Resource Selection Continued (4) Transportation Electrification • Number of Trips provided by CBO • Measurement of plan • Number of annual passenger miles provided by implementation In accordance with CBOs TE Plan • Number of Public Charging Stations
Slide 119: CBIs and Resource Selection Applicable CBIs and Metrics
CBIs and Resource Selection CBIs which can be quantified for use in the Integrated Resource Plan Applicable CBIs and Metrics May be applicable to one or more resource type (5) Named Community (7) Energy (8) Energy (9) Outdoor Air (10) Greenhouse Gas Clean Energy Availability Generation Location Qual
Slide 120: CBIs: Named Community Clean Energy
CBIs and Resource Selection (5) Named Community Clean Energy Applicable CBIs and Metrics Total MWh of DER 5 MW and under Total MWh of Energy Storage Resources Number of sites/projects of distributed renewable energy resources and energy storage resources DER and Energy Storage included as op
Slide 121: CBIs: Energy Availability
CBIs and Resource Selection (7) Energy Availability Applicable CBIs and Metrics Customer Average Interruption Duration (CAIDI) Frequency of outages for all customers, vulnerable populations, highly impacted communities. Avista will measure using Baseline IIEE Index, Customers experiencing multip
Slide 122: CBIs: Energy Generation Location
CBIs and Resource Selection (8) Energy Generation Location Applicable CBIs and Metrics % of Generation located in WA or AVA Transmission Baseline Percent of Generation located in Washington or Connected to Avista Transmission System • Will track and have economic benefit of new resource options wi
Slide 123: CBIs: Outdoor Air Quality
CBIs and Resource Selection (9) Outdoor Air Quality Applicable CBIs and Metrics Weighted average days exceeding healthy levels NEI will help to account for the impact of air emissions in new SO2, NOx, Mercury, Volatile Organic Compounds from AVA generating plans resource selection Wood heating
Slide 124: CBIs: Greenhouse Gas Emissions
CBIs and Resource Selection (10) Greenhouse Gas Emissions Applicable CBIs and Metrics Regional GHG emissions NEI will help to account for the impact of GHG Emissions Avista GHG emissions Baseline - Region GHG Emissions Baseline - Avista GHG Emissions 17
Slide 125: CBI in IRP / Progress Report Resource Selection
CBI in IRP / Progress Report Resource Selection FINAL STEP: STEP TWO: STEP RESULT: STEP ONE: Least Resource THREE: CBI Preferred Resource Options & and NEI Reasonable Resource Requirements Costs (NEW) Cost Strategy Optimization • Winter Resource • Utility Scale • Preferred Resource • Compare resourc
Slide 126: Implementation
Aw AIVISTA Implementation
Slide 127: Implementation – Resource and Program Selection and Prioritization
Implementation – Resource and Program Selection and Prioritization • Several CBIs, while not utilized in IRP, will be utilized in program selection and/or prioritization. • Other CBIs are more applicable to measurement of success of Company efforts in areas such as: • Access to clean energy – i.e. i
Slide 128: Named Community Investment Fund
Named Community Investment Fund May be used for: 40% or up to $2.0 million • Distributed Energy Resources • Supplement and support energy efficiency efforts targetedto Named Communities • Economic Development • Other – as identified by EAG or other 20% or up to $1.0 million • Investments in distribu
Slide 129: Evaluation Process – All Source RFP
Evaluation Process – All Source RFP Initial Screen Evaluation Scoring Matrix Weighting 20% 40% 5% 20% 10% 5% 100% Risk Financial Energy Non-Energy Management Impact* Price Risk Electric Factors Environmental Impact** Total Score Financial Analysis of Price to include Potential for Energy security, D
Slide 130: 1st Yr. Customer Benefit
Energy Non-Energy Impact Impact 1st Yr. Customer Benefit NEI Energy Named contribution Measure Bill Savings Burden (NEI Air Quality Community Total Benefit to total Only) Investment benefit LI-Building Envelope-Windows* $0.60 $0.69 $1.95 $0.15 $3.39 82% LI-Building Envelope-Energy Star Rated Doors $
Slide 131: 2023 IRP Scenario Analysis
2023 IRP Scenario Analysis James Gall, Integrated Resource Planning Manager Electric IRP, Seventh Technical Advisory Committee Meeting October 11, 2022
Slide 132: 2023 IRP vs 2023 Progress Report
2023 IRP vs 2023 Progress Report • Washington Progress Report to be filed on January 3, 2023. This report includes only scenarios that estimate avoided costs. – Progress report will be based on a stochastic study of 300 potential futures with varying market drivers. – Due to the resource acquisition
Slide 133: Proposed Market Scenarios
Proposed Market Scenarios 300 Stochastics Load, fuel prices, wind, hydro, inflation High natural gas prices Low natural gas prices National greenhouse gas price No Climate Commitment Act Climate Commitment Act (CCA) dispatch pricing options for thermal units outside Washington (2023-20
Slide 134: Proposed Portfolio Scenarios
Proposed Portfolio Scenarios Resource/Planning Margin Load Portfolios Portfolios Low economic conditions Idaho Colstrip exit selected by model High economic conditions 1 or 2 units Building electrification PT ratio shares vs entire units Washington new residential construction only W