Mosaic Company (the) · NYSE:MOS
Mosaic Company (the) — Q1 2017 Earnings Presentation
15 slides from Mosaic Company (the)'s earnings presentation, May 8, 2017
Slide 1: Earnings Conference Call – First Quarter 2017
Presenters: Date: Earnings Conference Call – First Quarter 2017 May 2, 2017 Joc O’Rourke, President and Chief Executive Officer Rich Mack, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer Laura Gagnon, Vice President Investor Relations The Mosaic Company
Slide 2: Forward Looking Statements
MOSAIC CONFIDENTIAL Forward Looking Statements Forward-Looking Statements This document contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements include, but are not limited to, statements about our proposed acquisition of the gl
Slide 3: Executive Summary
MOSAIC CONFIDENTIAL Executive Summary 3 Several Items Impacted First Quarter 2017 Results Managing Costs and Capital Markets Have Improved Expect Better Profitability in Q2 and H2 2017
Slide 4: China Phosphate Exports
MOSAIC CONFIDENTIAL China Phosphate Exports 4 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Million Tonnes China DAP/MAP/TSP Exports 2015 = 11.6mmt 2016 = 9.5mmt 2017F = ~8.0mmt Source: China Customs, Mosaic
Slide 5: Financial Results Review
MOSAIC CONFIDENTIAL Financial Results Review 5
Slide 6: Phosphates Results and Guidance
MOSAIC CONFIDENTIAL Phosphates Results and Guidance 6 GuidanceFirst Quarter 2017 Results Volumes Price Margin 2.0M 2.3M2.3M $315 $335$327 Upper Single Digits 7% Phosphates Q2 2017 Q2 Sales Volumes 2.3 to 2.6 million tonnes Q2 DAP Selling Price $320 to $340 per tonne Q2 Gross Margin Rate Approximatel
Slide 7: Potash Results and Guidance
MOSAIC CONFIDENTIAL Potash Results and Guidance 7 Potash Q2 2017 Q2 Sales Volumes 2.0 to 2.3 million tonnes Q2 MOP Selling Price $170 to $185 per tonne Q2 Gross Margin Rate Low 20 percent Q2 Operating Rate Low 90 percent* Full Year Sales Volumes 8.0 to 8.75 million tonnes Global Shipments 62 to 63 m
Slide 8: International Distribution Results and Guidance
MOSAIC CONFIDENTIAL International Distribution Results and Guidance 8 GuidanceFirst Quarter 2017 Results Volumes Margin/Tonne 1.2M 1.5M ~$20 $21 International Distribution Q2 2017 Q2 Sales Volumes 1.4 to 1.7 million tonnes Q2 Gross Margin per Tonne Approximately $20 Full Year Sales Volumes 7.0 to 7.
Slide 9: Other Full-Year Guidance
MOSAIC CONFIDENTIAL Other Full-Year Guidance 9 Consolidated Full-Year 2017 Total SG&A $295 to $310 million Capital Expenditures and Equity Investments $950 million to $1.05 billion Effective Tax Rate Upper single digits Potash 2017 Full Year Canadian Resources Taxes $85 to $135 million Full Year Bri
Slide 10: Closing Remarks and Appendix
MOSAIC CONFIDENTIAL Closing Remarks and Appendix 10
Slide 11: Raw Material Cost Detail
MOSAIC CONFIDENTIAL Raw Material Cost Detail 11 Ammonia ($/Tonne) First Quarter 2017 Percent Realized in COGS $285 Average Purchase Price $307 Realized in COGS $87 Average Purchase Price $75 Sulfur ($/Tonne) Phosphate Rock (realized in COGS) (‘000 tonnes) U.S. mined rock 3,575 90% Purchased Miski Ma
Slide 12: Earnings Sensitivity to Key Drivers
MOSAIC CONFIDENTIAL Earnings Sensitivity to Key Drivers(a) 12 (a) These factors do not change in isolation; actual results could vary from the above estimates (b) Assumes no change to KMAG pricing 2017 Q1 Actual Change 2017 Q1 Margin % Actual % Impact on Segment Margin Pre-Tax Impact Quarterly EPS I
Slide 13: Phosphate Raw Material Trends
MOSAIC CONFIDENTIAL Phosphate Raw Material Trends 13 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017F Realized Costs Market Prices 0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 Sulfur (long ton)(p) Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016
Slide 14: Global Potash Shipment Forecasts by Region (May 2, 2017)
MOSAIC CONFIDENTIAL Global Potash Shipment Forecasts by Region (May 2, 2017) 14 Muriate of Potash Million Tonnes (KCl) 2015 2016 Low 2017F High 2017F Comments China 15.9 13.3 13.8 14.0 Implied shipments plunged last year as a result of a 2.6 mmt decline in imports and lower domestic production. The
Slide 15: Global Phosphate Shipment Forecasts by Region (May 2, 2017)
MOSAIC CONFIDENTIAL Global Phosphate Shipment Forecasts by Region (May 2, 2017) 15 Million Tonnes DAP/MAP/NPS*/TSP 2015 2016E Low 2017F High 2017F Comments China 19.8 18.4 18.0 18.3 We have trimmed our forecast for 2017 – rather than flat, now showing a modest decline – as early reports on spring se